Don't worry HRC has it under control

[Fla Dem]

Interesting how in the news you only hear about the polls where Bernie has a lead. Hmmmm.

IOWA POLLS

Sunday, Jan 24
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus CBS News/YouGov..............Clinton 46, Sanders 47, O'Malley 5 Sanders +1

Friday, Jan 22
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus Loras College....................Clinton 59, Sanders 30, O'Malley 7 Clinton +29


Thursday Jan 21
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus CNN/ORC.........................Clinton 43, Sanders 51, O'Malley 4 Sanders +8
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus KBUR /Monmouth College....Clinton 48, Sanders 39, O'Malley 7 Clinton +9

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

NATIONAL POLL

[hrmjustin]

1. The media wants to take down Hillary.

The media sucks.

[Fla Dem]

2. I'm not sure it's that as much as there really is no drama in the Dems primary, so

they have to make it up. All those reporters covering the candidates and there is virtually no news. So they create it.

[Iliyah]

3. Well judging from the CBS poll and the CNN poll which had her down by 8

Its HRC that is SURGING.

Thanks for the information.

[FloridaBlues]

4. I agree fla dem her campaign has it under control

I feel confident she will win Iowa
The story of trump has gotten old with the media so they need another story to fill in the gap.
I find it amusing about the Bloomberg story perhaps they will focus on him for a few days
she was right Bloomberg won't have to worry about getting in because she will be the nominee.

[William769]

5. Kick & highly recommended!

[Gothmog]

6. For Clinton, It’s Time to Stay Cool in Iowa and New Hampshire

According to Charlie Cook, there is no need to worry http://cookpolitical.com/story/9171

For Sanders, his strong­holds are caucus states, where ideo­lo­gic­al fer­vor and pas­sion­ate sup­port­ers are of para­mount im­port­ance, and in New Eng­land, where Demo­crat­ic voters are sub­stan­tially more lib­er­al than any­where else. But caucus states and New Eng­land do not re­motely have the del­eg­ates needed to win the nom­in­a­tion. In the vir­tu­ally im­possible event that a can­did­ate won 100 per­cent of the del­eg­ates from both groups of states, it would rep­res­ent just 36 per­cent of the del­eg­ates needed to be the party’s can­did­ate.

The just-re­leased na­tion­al poll con­duc­ted for NBC News and The Wall Street Journ­al by Demo­crat­ic poll­ster Fred Yang and Re­pub­lic­an Bill McIn­turff showed Clin­ton lead­ing by 25 points, 59 to 34 per­cent. CBS News/New York Times polls from earli­er in the month put Clin­ton’s na­tion­al lead at 7 points (48 to 41 per­cent); a Fox News poll split the dif­fer­ence with Clin­ton ahead by 15 points, 54 to 39 per­cent. Ob­vi­ously there is no na­tion­al primary, which is what a na­tion­al poll would os­tens­ibly meas­ure, but it does show that the rest of the coun­try does not mir­ror the polls we are see­ing in Iowa and New Hamp­shire. Sanders’s base ap­pears too nar­row to win much on the road, bey­ond caucuses and New Eng­land.

[Gothmog]

7. Sanders would "need to win 70 percent of Iowa's delegates

According to one of the experts for the Cook Report, Sanders needs to win big in Iowa to have a chance http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/sanders-needs-more-than-a-win-in-iowa-to-beat-clinton

As David Wasserman wrote in the Cook Political Report last week, "98 percent of pledged Democratic delegates will come from states with lower shares of liberal whites than Iowa and New Hampshire." That is a big problem for Sanders who has yet to prove he can expand his base....

Yet, even then, delegate allocation is proportional, which means that Sanders would have to begin winning by major margins to make the race a serious contest.

Wasserman estimates that according to his models, Sanders would "need to win 70 percent of Iowa's delegates and 63 percent of New Hampshire's delegates" to even "be on track" to stay competitive with Clinton in later states where demographically speaking, Clinton has shown she has more support. And in a states like Florida and South Carolina, Clinton leads in recent polls by 36 points and 19 points, respectively.

"It is not merely the delegate process that favors Hillary, it is the voters. She has earned the loyalty and support of communities of color, women, the LGBTQ community, environmentalists, and other vital parts of the Democratic coalition," says Democratic strategist Paul Begala, a Clinton supporter. "Bernie's coalition - so far - is more narrow. It is impressive in its energy and its passion, but it is, I think, more narrow."

I have not seen any projections or polls that show that Sanders being close to these numbers.

[Treant]

8. That will not happen.

Sanders' support is a mile deep...but not very wide. Mrs. Clinton's, it could be argued, is not so deep. But it's much, much wider.

I can't see Sanders walking off with more than 55% of the delegates at the absolute outside. And I find that to be a gross overestimate of what reality will actually be.

[Fla Dem]

9. Updated National poll and SC primary poll

South Carolina Primary poll



http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-4167.html



Updated CNN and FOX National poll



http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html

[misterhighwasted]

10. He'll always be "30% bernie."

Nothing will force that number higher.

[Tarheel_Dem]

11. Nate Silver obviously doesn't think much of YouGov polling history. He gives it a C+. That's....

down there with Zogby internet polls. http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/