Nate Silver is not high on Bernie's chances of winning the Nomination.
(Nate Silver puts out averages of recent political polls weighted to take into consideration the tendency of polls to favor one candidate or the other and the polls historic accuracies.)
The Five Thirty Eight articles Is The Bernie Sanders Surge Real? is really a discussion between Nate Silver and two others about Bernie's current chances of winning the nomination. I especially like the answer that Nate gives to the question about what odds would he have to have to bet on Sanders. He says: "If I could get him at 20-1 (implying about a 5 percent chance of winning), I’d take it."
(snip)
natesilver: FWIW, our FiveThirtyEight national polling average (which we’re not publishing yet — stay tuned) has Clinton up 22 percentage points. Although that was before the Monmouth poll released today, which might tighten things a bit. But somewhere in the high teens or perhaps low 20s.
(snip)
micah: All right, so let’s posit that the tightening of the race in Iowa and (to a lesser extent) the nation is real and lasting. Sanders leads in New Hampshire. Is Sanders a real threat to win the nomination now?
natesilver: Define real.
clare.malone: I think that’s definitely going to change over the next week or so. The New York Times had a big piece this morning about how the Clinton campaign is changing its strategy given the Bernie bump (which, incidentally, sounds like a really fun dance move, no?).
harry: My New York accent is real. My ability to drive is also real, but not really real.
micah: Real means >25 percent chance.
natesilver: Sell.
micah: 20 percent.
harry: Sell.
natesilver: Still selling.
micah: [let’s give the #feeltheberners a moment to leave an angry comment]
15 percent.
natesilver: That’s about where Betfair has it, for what it’s worth.
harry: I’m sorry, but — knowing I’ve been paid off by my corporate overlords — here’s what I see: There’s just little-to-no sign that Clinton has lost any traction among black voters. The most recent YouGov poll has her up 75 percent to 18 percent among black Democrats. The most recent Morning Consult poll has her ahead 71 percent to 14 percent. The most recent Monmouth poll has her up 71 percent to 21 percent among non-white voters. Sanders would need to close that gap to have any chance in South Carolina. And remember, Clinton was only up by 7 percentage points at this point among non-white voters in the 2008 cycle.
natesilver: Indeed. That, along with her support from the party establishment, is why Clinton is the heavy favorite. But at what point does the price on Bernie become attractive to you?
natesilver: If I could get him at 20-1 (implying about a 5 percent chance of winning), I’d take it.
= new reply since forum marked as read
Of course, it just means the Sanders cohort is now 95% sure he's going to win, and giving Mrs. Clinton a 5% chance instead. 
Where's this Bernie bump? The folks I've talked to made up their minds ages ago and aren't reconsidering.
