New Nevada Poll: Clinton +6

[MrWendel]

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/2/18/1487198/-New-Nevada-Poll-Clinton-6

Hillary 53/47

One America News Network, (“OAN”), commissioned Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, to conduct a random survey of 1,366 registered, likely voters in Nevada. The poll was conducted from February 14th to the 15th and includes 687 Republican Caucus participants, 516 Democratic Caucus participants, and the remainder not planning on participating in a caucus, but are planning to vote in the regular elections. The poll has a margin of error of ± 3% [4% for Republican and Democratic caucuses]. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The polls were conducted using automated telephone calls (IVR technology) and weighted separately for each population in the question presented.
http://www.oann.com/pollnevada/

[6chars]

1. and on Predictwise, Hillary marches up steadily

from 79% to 80% to 81% to 82% to 83% to 84% to 85% as of today.

[BlueCaliDem]

4. Wow! Excellent news! I like those trends! :-) Thank you for sharing, 6chars. eom

[6chars]

6. my read on it

Sanders is behind and every day he doesn't surge is a day closer to Clinton wrapping it up. The polls have been basically stable leading into NV and SC, and that is good news for the leader.

[Treant]

2. Now that's what

I want to see.

I'm still holding my estimate at Clinton +0.2 due to Nevada's strange caucuses, though I'm now thinking I might be pleasantly surprised come Saturday afternoon!

[BlueCaliDem]

5. And I really like your levelheadedness, Treant. You keep it REAL!

[Treant]

8. Thanks, BlueCaliDem!

I sometimes feel that people think I'm far too cautious. Having observed a ton of primaries and elections and viewing more polls than I can remember, it generally turns out that:

1) Primary polling stinks. Always.
2) Caucuses end up closer than you think they will be, barring severe gaffes or a very, very weak contender.
3) Closed Primaries have the greatest spread.
4) Caution means not being disappointed.

Because of the small number of Nevada polls, their generally weaker reliability, and Nevada's very, very strange timing (11 AM?) and rules, I'm awarding a very, very slight, Iowa-style win to Clinton at this moment.

Better polling might change that, but it's getting awfully late. They don't want to end up in the Friday News Dump either.

[book_worm]

3. That would be nice

[peggysue2]

7. Nate Silver has Gravis poll posted

Hillary now has a 75% chance of taking the caucus, which by it's nature is difficult to predict, so many variables. But this is good news indeed. Ralston who had reported a mini-panic earlier in the week has said that the Hillary campaign appears reenergized and confident. Whatever troubling data they were picking up appears to have calmed down. i suspect that new ad will be having a positive affect, too. When media detractors call a political ad a win, you know you've got something by the tail.

[mcar]

9. K&R

[Dawson Leery]

10. The betting markets are giving Hillary the win.

They are correct most of the time.

[vdogg]

11. I'm calling Hillary +1

It'll still be close, and don't hyperventilate when the initial returns come back Bernie. Hillary is strongest in cities, Bernie in rural areas and college towns. The small towns report first.