Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

CajunBlazer

(5,648 posts)
Thu Feb 18, 2016, 05:44 PM Feb 2016

More of Nate Silver's Predictions

I looked though the FiveThirtyEight website for predictions on all of the upcoming caucus and primary states and, except for Nevada and South Carolina which I have already posted here, this is what I found (all projections in terms of chances of winning in that state):

Virginia
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/virginia-democratic/
Clinton: 98% - Sanders: 2%

Oklahoma
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/oklahoma-democratic/
Clinton: 81% - Sanders: 19%

Arkansas
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/arkansas-democratic/
Clinton: Greater than 99% - Sanders: Less than 1%

Michigan
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/
Clinton: 95% - Sanders: 5%

Most of the other states pages showed "insufficient polling data"

NOTE: If you have questions about which polls were used for a particular prediction, go to the website using the link provided for that prediction Scroll down and you will see a list of polls. Keep in mind that not all of the polls may have been used. Look in the column titled WEIGHT. Silver weights polls in his calculations (gives more emphasis to some polls than others) based on the past accuracy of the polling organization and the bias of their polls.

For example, for the Virginia prediction, the "Public Policy Polling" poll (weight -1.18) received a lot more weight than the "Christopher Newport University" (wieght - 0.11)and the other polls below them weren't used at all in Silver's prediction calculations - notice that they all have 0.00 for the weight. That is almost certainly that is because the are too old to be valid.

7 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
More of Nate Silver's Predictions (Original Post) CajunBlazer Feb 2016 OP
Dare I say it...Hillary is surging! comradebillyboy Feb 2016 #1
Hillary is going to blow this race up workinclasszero Feb 2016 #2
Nah, they still firmly believe Bernie is going to win against all odds. CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #4
Go Hillary Tommy2Tone Feb 2016 #3
K&R! Tarheel_Dem Feb 2016 #5
Yay! NastyRiffraff Feb 2016 #6
But Sanders is dominating VT and AK!!!! Bleacher Creature Feb 2016 #7
 

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)
2. Hillary is going to blow this race up
Thu Feb 18, 2016, 05:50 PM
Feb 2016

Starting in SC.

The bernie hardcore know their days are growing short.

CajunBlazer

(5,648 posts)
4. Nah, they still firmly believe Bernie is going to win against all odds.
Thu Feb 18, 2016, 07:11 PM
Feb 2016

But I am anxious to see how they react over the next few weeks.

Bleacher Creature

(11,257 posts)
7. But Sanders is dominating VT and AK!!!!
Thu Feb 18, 2016, 08:39 PM
Feb 2016

I can't wait for this primary to be over. My patience with the other camp is dwindling.

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»Hillary Clinton»More of Nate Silver's Pre...