When will Hillary clinch? (A little math . . .)

[Chichiri]

Let's start with two assumptions: First, that every superdelegate who has not yet endorsed will endorse Bernie (but Hillary won't lose any), and second, that Hillary only receives 51% of all pledged delegates. I think both assumptions are unreasonably pessimistic, but let's go with them and see where we get. With only 449 superdelegates on her side, Hillary needs 1,933 pledged delegates to clinch the nomination. When will she get them?

At 51%, she won't get them until June 7, when the last states vote (but before DC votes). So that will be down to the wire.

If she gets 52%, 53%, 55%, or 57%, no change. There's just a large percentage of delegates up for grabs on that day.

It's a little better if she gets 58% of the pledged delegates; she will clinch on June 5, when -- ready for this? -- Puerto Rico votes.

So if the race is at all close, this is going to last into June. *shudder* But . . .

If she gets 60% of the pledged delegates, she will clinch on May 17, when Kentucky and Oregon vote.

If she gets 62%, she will clinch on May 3, when Indiana votes.

If she gets 64%, she will clinch on April 26, when a bunch of New England states vote.

Beyond that it gets pretty fantastical, and there's probably no point in dwelling on it, except for one threshold that I can't resist mentioning. I wouldn't hold my breath on this one, but keep in mind that by this point, most southern states will have voted, and many New England states haven't, so this is just barely possible:

At 73% of the pledged delegates, Hillary will clinch on April 19, when New York votes.

[Treant]

1. That's true!

And thanks for that--I would guess that most years are pretty late on the "over the line" factor.

What may be more helpful is the question, "When does the deficit for Sanders become so unsurmountable that he's effectively lost?" Or, when do those 49% losses eventually mean that he'd have to win each successive state by greater and greater margins that rapidly become impossible?

I'm not sure, and I'd have to analyze it, but I'd tentatively say we get a modest indicator after Super Tuesday, March 15th at the latest. By mid-April, and post Pennsylvania, the handwriting should be on the wall.

If it isn't, it's going to be a long, long fight.

[Chichiri]

3. Yeah, I'd say Super Tuesday will be a decent indicator. nt

[livetohike]

2. Thanks for this. I'm in PA. I hope it is over by then, if not

then I hope PA will clinch it for her 👍.

[misterhighwasted]

4. How cool would that be! Your State Pa, would make History!! ..er HERstory..

That's a great Hillary Campaign Ad too..just sayin.

[livetohike]

7. I received a text from the campaign this afternoon. They are selling T-shirts with Hillary's picture

on them that say Let's Make Herstory =- something like that . My friend in England wants a Hillary T-shirt. That might be a good one .

[Treant]

5. PA here as well!

Usually it's pretty much over except for the crying by the time it reaches us. While no candidate has achieved a majority, the eventual winner is at least strongly indicated.

This year? I think it's going to be over before PA again. Not that she'll have passed the winning point, but that the trend in the game is clear.

[livetohike]

9. Especially since our dear legislature moved the primary to an earlier date several years ago

I am hoping Toomey will be gone. Our Senate race is interesting, too.

[mcar]

10. PA native, current FL resident

Go Keystone state!

[Bleacher Creature]

6. The key is her picking up momentum.

Which I suspect will start this weekend, and carry over into Super Tuesday.

As Sanders becomes less and less viable, those margins won't seem so daunting anymore.

[Chichiri]

8. If the race in Nevada is close . . .

. . . it will probably be good for Bernie, but that goodness will be overshadowed by the Republican SC primary happening the same day. If he wins Nevada by 3 or more points (and it looks like that's about 2 standard deviations off), that will be even better for Bernie, and it might give him some room to dampen Hillary's impending blowout in SC. But with Super Tuesday only 3 days later, I don't believe that a dampened blowout in SC will itself dampen Hillary's blowouts on Super Tuesday. And blow it out she will.

I can't find an instance in modern history in which a candidate lost Super Tuesday by a large margin, and went on to win the nomination.

[Treant]

11. Nevada will be "close,"

for strict percentage comparisons of "close." Or close enough that the media can make it seem like a horse race, anyway.

Even Clinton +6 isn't an overwhelming margin when you look at it as Clinton 53%, Sanders 47%. Of course, the delegate math is more lopsided, and you and I know that's a big win.

I'd tentatively say that anything under Clinton +2 will feed into the "Bernie is Competitive" meme...at least through Super Tuesday.

Which, at this point, might not be a positive for Bernie since I'm detecting even more polarization among Clinton supporters than previously. At this point, they might just walk through fire to vote against him and for her if they think he has the faintest chance.

[Chichiri]

12. PA is April 26, right?

Wrap this thing up before May? Just fine with me!