A Median Scenario for Bernie
A follow-up to my post "A Best-Case Scenario for Bernie." This time, I simply took the median projected polling numbers for each candidate if available on 538, or the polling average on 538, or the polling average on RCP, again giving undecideds to Bernie in most cases. As before, Colorado and Minnesota are assumed to be a tie. I then compared these numbers to Nate Silver's target numbers at 538, the margins that Nate says Bernie needs to beat in each state in order to be on track to win the nomination.
Here's what it looks like for Bernie this time:
[font color="blue"]NEVADA: Needs -3; has -4
[font color="blue"]SOUTH CAROLINA: Needs -11, has -28.
[font color="red"]VERMONT: Needs +49, has +76.
[font color="blue"]MINNESOTA: Needs +17, has 0.
[font color="blue"]COLORADO: Needs +13, has 0.
[font color="blue"]MASSACHUSETTS: Needs +11, has +7.
[font color="blue"]OKLAHOMA: Needs +2, has -4.
[font color="blue"]TENNESSEE: Needs -4, has -30.
[font color="blue"]VIRGINIA: Needs -9, has -24.
[font color="blue"]ARKANSAS: Needs -20, has -28.
[font color="blue"]TEXAS: Needs -20, has -26.
[font color="blue"]GEORGIA: Needs -24, has -36.
[font color="blue"]ALABAMA: Needs -27, has -28.
[font color="gray"]KANSAS: Needs +13; no data.
[font color="gray"]NEBRASKA: Needs +11; no data.
[font color="blue"]LOUISIANA: Needs -22, has -40.
[font color="gray"]MAINE: Needs +27; no data.
[font color="blue"]MICHIGAN: Needs +11, has -24.
[font color="blue"]MISSISSIPPI: Needs -32, has -34.
[font color="gray"]MISSOURI: Needs +4; no data.
[font color="blue"]NORTH CAROLINA: Needs 0, has -22.
[font color="blue"]OHIO: Needs -2, has -15.
[font color="gray"]ILLINOIS: Needs -3; no data.
[font color="blue"]FLORIDA: Needs -15, has -25.