My Super Tuesday Projection

[Chichiri]

In Colorado and Minnesota, I used Nate Silver's tied-nationally projections, simply because there's no recent information from those states; this puts Bernie ahead by 11 and 17 points, respectively. In Alabama, I used the recent PPP poll, that being the only poll available. In American Samoa, I just assumed a tie. For all other Super Tuesday states, I calculated the delegate share based on the median of 538's projected vote spread.

Hillary will get 508 pledged delegates on Super Tuesday. Bernie will get 312.

Add these numbers to my projection for South Carolina (34 and 19), and to their totals so far (52 and 51), and . . .

Hillary will have 594 pledged delegates total after Super Tuesday. Bernie will have 382.

There's a lot of wiggle room in the individual numbers, depending on who wins individual districts, etc -- but it's going to come out around 594 and 382. And that does not even include superdelegates.

I would calculate what percentage of the vote Bernie needs from the remaining states to get the nomination after that, but it's absurdly late and I should be asleep. Good night.

[Lucinda]

1. Thankie for the info!

Appreciate all your good work here. Sleep well!

[Thinkingabout]

2. Hillary is working hard everywhere, she isn't by passing any state,

She wants to be president to everyone.

[GreydeeThos]

3. The only State Bernie will win will be Vermont

Bernie will also take American Samoa.

The kicker will not be the Clinton sweep of the States other than Vermont; it will be the vote spread in Vermont. The projected 90 / 10 percent distribution is more likely to be 60 / 40. When Bernie's vote tally in his home state is in the mid fifties, his supporters will know the high water mark is behind them.

[SylviaD]

4. Bernie has no real path to the nomination.

He has provided some spark and some inspiration, but maybe he and his supporters should stop trashing the very probable nominee now.

[Coolest Ranger]

5. If this comes true

I will dance in the streets

[Stuckinthebush]

6. 45% of her goal by then

That includes supers as it should. Bernie is bernt toast.

[workinclasszero]

7. Thanks for the info!

Bernie has no path to victory after super tuesday.

Its just a vanity tour for him after that until his backers get tired of paying for it.

[yallerdawg]

8. I wonder if Obama is a superdelegate?

Or is he THE superdelegate?

Does he "take the pledge" Monday after South Carolina, or Wednesday after it's all over?

We'll know when we see this!

[Stuckinthebush]

9. Great question

I bet he's not but WILL be.

Also, I wonder if Bill is a super?

[Gothmog]

10. A 200+ pledged delegate lead is meaningful

[Chichiri]

11. In an election where every state is proportional, it's not just meaningful . . .

. . . it's definitive.

[Treant]

12. If you made me guess,

I don't see Minnesota as +17 Sanders. More like +5 to +10, tops.

It feels like the Bernie train is already losing steam.

[Chichiri]

13. I agree, it almost certainly won't be that high . . .

. . . but in the absence of any recent data, I have to go with the median. Maybe we should poke the Star Tribune, get them to run one more poll this weekend?