Bernie may win 3 of 4 contests this weekend...and lose ground (HRC Group)

[Godhumor]

Text from a post I wrote in GDP.

So March 5 and 6 will feature four contests:

Kansas
Nebraska
Louisiana
Maine

Even with the dirth of polling, Bernie will be a big favorite in Maine and could probably expect to win the other two caucuses, Kansas and Nebraska, as well.

However, he has no chance at Louisiana. In fact it isn't even going to be remotely close. And this is where math becomes tricky.

See, Louisiana is the most delegate rich state up for grabs this weekend with 51 (The other 3 states have 83 combined), and, according to the 538 aggregate, Hillary's spread is +44.8% over Bernie through today. That translates into a 23 delegate advantage for her.

Bernie would need to win the other three states by an average of 28% to match that delegate spread. Now, he's lost two of the three closed caucuses, so far (Nevada and American Samoa), but let's go ahead and assume the other, Colorado, is the best analogue for Bernie's upcoming weekend. He won CO by 18.5%.

If he averages an 18.5% victory in the three caucuses, he will finish with 15 to 16 more delegates than Clinton, total, for those contests. So for the entire weekend he would actually lose ground by the tune of 7 or 8 delegates. And another 4 states will be done, which shortens the calendar, again, to start the comeback (Especially with a murderer's row the next two weeks worth 863 delegates across 7 states and 1 territory. He is not likely to be favored in any of those races).

Sometimes it makes sense to fight for votes in states you know you'll lose instead of going for the headline of a win.

[question everything]

1. Are they all caucus states?

Sanders, like Obama in 2008, tends to do better in caucuses. And, I suppose, Maine should be considered as a Sanders' neighbor.

That's OK. Hillary is so far ahead, she can afford to be generous.

I am curious about Illinois. She lost it to Obama, of course, but it was her home state before she left for college.

[Godhumor]

2. ME, KS, NE are closed caucuses. LA is a closed primary n/t

Whoops, screwed up LA.

[book_worm]

8. Meaning that Independents can't vote?

[question everything]

10. Unless they change registration

Personally I prefer closed primaries and caucuses. I think that only voters who identify with the goals and the candidates of the party should participate. I lived in California in the 90 when they tried open primaries.

So I voted for the weakest Republican candidate against Barbara Boxer.

Now it is a completely different game.

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

18. In ME, if you are an independent (unenrolled) you can show up to either Repub or Dem caucus

and enroll in the party at that time. You are not allowed to switch parties same day though. We also have a party called Green Independent in Maine. They are not the same as unenrolled Independent. The Green Independents are not allowed to vote in either caucus and cannot switch the same day. I don't know what the deadline was for switching parties, but it has already passed.

[DURHAM D]

3. .

Louisiana - closed primary
Nebraska - closed caucus
Kansas - closed caucus
Maine - closed caucus

[msrizzo]

5. If they are closed caucuses hard for him to get massive wins.

Republicans won't be able to help him unless they want to pass up the Trumpfest.

[LannyDeVaney]

4. fivethirtyeight shows a 2-1 projected advantage for Clinton in Illinois

>99% to win

Probably another state Sanders has completely given up on.

[MarianJack]

6. Hello from Winthrop, Maine!

Don't be TOO sure that Hillary will lose up here!

PEACE!

[SunSeeker]

7. Thanks for that, MarianJack!

[Cha]

11. Be so nice if she didn't!

Mahalo, MarianJack from Kauai!

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

19. I put in an absentee ballot for her too

in Lewiston. I have no idea how this will go. Maine can be a little unpredictable.

I noticed we have a Hillary headquarters in town now too. Hopefully, that will be sticking around for a while.

[MarianJack]

21. Hopefully so!

We'll be caucusing for HILLARY this Sunday in Winthrop. I'm excited!

PEACE!

[Treant]

9. K&R

They'll play the optics of 3 wins to 1 win, of course, neglecting the fact that Clinton will win the greater number of delegates. That should be fun.

That lasts until Tuesday when the clouds break again and it's sunny for Clinton for a solid week. She'll win in number of states, state size, and clean up on delegates.

[Cha]

12. i thought Hillary was doing well in Louisianna?

thank you!

[Treant]

13. She is.

She's likely to lose the other three, but get something from a landslide to a blowout in Louisiana.

That'll even out the delegate count, more or less. We can expect another call to nullify Southern voters from the Sanders supporters since LA will balance or more than balance all of the other three (very much smaller) states where the caucuses won't be a complete blowout.

[Cha]

15. Mahalo.. I read the OP too fast and didn't even finish it!

[Godhumor]

14. Yup. So well LA by itself can negate losses in the other three n/t

[Cha]

16. Thank you.. I read it too fast and left before

the finish. my bad.

Well, that's a good thing.. Good ol Louisiana.. New Orleans!

[Setsuna1972]

17. states with low delegate counts

It's almost a hollow victory to win states where the delegate numbers available are rather small . And for any BernieBros lurking, I haven't said anything about what race the voters are either ! It's just doing the math

[riversedge]

20. thanks for the analysis.