March 7--new Mitchell/fox 2 Detroit poll

[riversedge]

I was listening to cnn --rather it was on in the background--- and I heard them talking of a **new poll

(but the poll I heard them talk about in Michigan had Hillary ahead only by 9pts) [and they talked about the one having her ahead only by 5 pts from a few days ago also--].


Anyway--I have not found the poll they were talking about but did find this MARCH 7 one (seems to far out to me but would gladly take it --but do not want to get my hopes up too high. It is listed on real clear politics also

http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2016/03/michigan_primaries_donald_trum.html

...............The Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit poll has Clinton winning big over Sanders, 61 to 34 percent. That's based on a survey of 482 likely primary voters taken March 7 with a +/- 4.46 margin of error at the 95 percent confidence level.

Both candidates have spent time in Michigan in the week leading up to the election, holding press conferences and rallies. Clinton focused on her jobs and economic plan in Michigan while Sanders hit Clinton over trade deals.

[LisaM]

1. He's been spending time at college campuses and doing GOTV

I do expect the numbers to change from the really good spreads a couple of weeks ago. He's in his wheelhouse, affluent white college students. The numbers will shift.

I'm hoping Flint will come in big for Hillary, and Detroit, too.

[riversedge]

3. yes, I have

seen the large crowds.

[LisaM]

6. And it speaks to the fact that he's not attempting to broaden his demographic

It's curious, he doesn't seem to care about modifying his message to different groups - I don't see that as a weakness or as expediency, I see it as being able to understand that everyone has different issues and challenges - but I feel as if I'm just watching a replay every time he heads out to these campuses.

Michigan, however, is not a caucus state. And a lot of people have already voted absentee.

[LisaM]

11. He spoke at EMU, MSU, and UofM all withing the course of about 10 days

These are three universities that are all within 70 miles of each other, all in the southeast corner of the state. The only one that is diverse is EMU (Eastern Michigan). The other two are pretty white (though I think they have somewhat robust foreign enrollment), and for that matter, more white than they were 20 years ago thanks to all the evisceration of Affirmative Action. There probably were a number of people who attended all three rallies - just to hear the same speech, I guess.

[Pathwalker]

12. MSU is in mid-Michigan, not in the southeast corner.

It's student body is known for their March Madness riots, and wild parties, hence the very popular bumper sticker:"Sparty On! It's location is East Lansing.

[LisaM]

13. I know, I went to high school 5 miles away.

But it's generally southeast Michigan - mid-Michigan is more (to me, anyway), places like Midland, more in the area around CMU. True, East Lansing isn't in the southeast CORNER, near Toledo, etc., but he's sticking to a pretty tight geographical area.

Larger point, he didn't spread his demographics out as far as his campus speaking events. He didn't go to Kalamazoo College or Western and talk about the gun incident. He didn't go to smaller colleges (EMU is around 30,000 these days). He's definitely doing his rallies in the area where his comfort zone is.

[Pathwalker]

14. And there are NO Bernie signs around East Lansing,

which I expected, so while he may do well there, I suspect
Lansing will go strong for Hillary. We live about 5 miles from East Lansing.

[LisaM]

15. Good news!

I saw that Bernie attracted quite a crowd at Breslin in the snow, so I'm interested in the breakdowns.

[aaaaaa5a]

2. Hillary just needs to win by 1 vote.

This way she maintains momentum. Everyone, remember this is about delegates. As long as she keeps winning, she is the nominee.

A 53-47 (or so) win in Michigan is just fine with me.

[yallerdawg]

4. Although a crushing defeat would be better!

Time to concentrate on November! Enough with distractions.

[jmowreader]

7. I think Hillary needs to win by a massive amount

It's all about optics here.

Visit Bernie Underground and you'll quickly learn Hillary can't draw good numbers outside the South. (Because as we all know, Hillary engineered the primary schedule so that of the large, homogeneous states in which she does well, all the Southern ones went first.) A Louisiana-grade ass kicking in Michigan would totally kill that meme.

[Treant]

8. Ditto. Big state. Reliably blue.

Lots of delegates.

I'd easily be happy with a +6. I'd just be ecstatic with a +10 or greater.

[Chichiri]

10. Clinton +27, and it's not on 538. Interesting. nt

[UtahLib]

16. K&R for Hillary