Ted Devine conceded "it would not be enough" IF superdelegates from states he won voted for Sander

[riversedge]

Last edited Mon Mar 28, 2016, 03:11 PM - Edit history (1)

Ted Devine conceded "it would not be enough" IF superdelegates from states he won voted for Sander

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=edit&forum=1107&thread=84352


Greg Sargent usually writes hit pieces on Hillary..I almost did not read this column. His title is misleading --Should be a Hail Mary Pass ---by the POPE himself!

Sanders needs to be honest with his donors --in all those emails we read about out there.




Sanders’s plan to win nomination by flipping super-delegates is a long shot
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/03/28/sanderss-plan-to-win-nomination-by-flipping-super-delegates-is-a-long-shot/

By Greg Sargent March 28 at 1:26 PM

(Scott Olson/Getty Images)

Fresh off of his big wins on Saturday, Bernie Sanders appeared on the Sunday shows to make two emphatic points about what’s next in his quest to overcome what still looks like a daunting delegate lead enjoyed by Hillary Clinton. She currently leads him by around 675 delegates total — pledged and un-pledged delegates together — and she needs to win barely more than a third of remaining delegates to clinch the nomination, while Sanders would need two-thirds of them.

First, Sanders said on CNN that he and his campaign will try to persuade un-pledged delegates — so-called “super-delegates,” who decide independent of the voting — to flip from supporting Clinton to supporting him instead, on the grounds that he is the more electable candidate in November.

Second, and more narrowly, Sanders also said on CNN that super-delegates in states that he won will feel pressure to support him, rather than Clinton, in order to honor the will of those states’ voters.

The problem with this second claim is that, even if it actually happened, it all but certainly would not make a difference to the outcome.

David Wasserman, who tracks the delegate math for the Cook Political Report, calculates that even if you awarded Sanders all of the super-delegates in the states he has won so far, it would still not be enough to overcome Clinton’s lead among super-delegates. That’s because many of the states that Sanders won are caucus states — with fewer super-delegates — while many of the states Clinton won have far more super-delegates.



“If you gave Bernie all of the super-delegates in the states he’s won, it wouldn’t be enough to reverse her super-delegate lead,” Wasserman tells me.

The math on this checks out. According to figures provided by the Democratic National Committee, here are the numbers of super-delegates in the states Sanders has won so far: New Hampshire (8). Colorado (12). Minnesota (16). Oklahoma (4). Vermont (10). Kansas (4). Nebraska (5). Maine (5). Michigan (17). Idaho (4). Utah (4). Alaska (4). Hawaii (10). Washington State (17). Democrats abroad (4).

The total number of super-delegates in all the states Sanders has won thus far is: 124. Clinton currently leads Sanders by 469-29 among super-delegates who have declared support for one candidate or the other, an advantage of 440. Giving Sanders all of those super-dels in states he won would not come close to closing that gap.



Tad Devine, a top strategist on the Sanders campaign, conceded to me that even if that scenario came to pass, it would not be enough. “She still has a very significant lead,” Devine told me. “She started off with a huge advantage in super delegates.”

[Her Sister]

1. booya!

[stonecutter357]

2. K&R!

[CalvinballPro]

3. Seems to be like pulling teeth to get Tad Devine to tell the truth lately.

I know he's desperate for a win, after 4 previous presidential campaigns failed under his watch, but still. Sorry Tad, but Bernie makes it 0/5.

[Funtatlaguy]

4. More math

469-124 = 345

29 + 124. = 153

345 - 153. = 192 new SD Hillary lead
469 - 29 = 440 current SD Hillary lead

[Thinkingabout]

7. So how many times to you get to substract the 153 delegates, not twice for sure.

Try that math on some else. Really fuzzy math.

[Funtatlaguy]

8. We are assuming, for this exercise....

that the 124 SD's in the OP are currently pledged to Hillary. That wasn't stated, but assuming....
So, you subtract them from her total and then add them to Bernies.
Thus, there would be a 248 swing.
Pretty simple math, actually.

[Thinkingabout]

10. Well you took the 124 away from Hillary and got the 345 and again

You took away the 124 and added Sanders delegates and took the total of Sanders delegates of 153 and took them away from the reduced number of delegates again. Fuzzy math does not pass.

[Funtatlaguy]

14. Let's walk this thru together.

Currently, it's 469 to 29.
The OP talked about the possibility of 124 of Hillarys 469 switching to Bernie.
So, that would also mean that Bernie would add those same 124 to his 29.

So, Hillary loses 124 from 469 to equal 345. Correct?
And, Bernie adds those 124 to his 29 to equal 153. Correct?

So, Hillary would have 345 minus Bernies 153 to equal her new advantage at 192.

Where is there anything fuzzy?

Again, this whole exercise assumes those 124 were already pledged to Hillary and, for the sake of this exercise, that Bernie could convince all 124 to switch to him.
This won't happen. It's just following what the OP talked about in a best case Bernie SD scenario.

[Thinkingabout]

18. When is the count for the rest of the delegates going to happen.

Probably Hillary will have 124 more of the delegates before the convention, the super delegate final count will include all super delegates.

[Funtatlaguy]

19. No idea

I was just responding to the OP about one specific scenario.
I don't know how many SDs there are in total.
Guess I could google it.

I think Devine was prob telling the truth when he said that Bernies only path was to get SDs to vote the same way their district or state did.
I've seen analyses saying that still wouldn't be enuf for Bernie.
Bernies fate was sealed in the Southeast. Just too big a hill to climb.
But, to his credit, he's still fighting.

[Thinkingabout]

20. This will not work either, some of the Super delegates are not from districts

Such as Bill Clinton and Hillary who I not an elected official at the time plus governors which is not from a district either. It I not designed to vote the district, never was.

[stopbush]

13. !

Math much?

[FloridaBlues]

5. Just what these super delegates want to get bombarded by Bernie bros

[GusBob]

6. Interestingly Mr Devine had a hand in developing the propertional primary system

which prolongs primary contests even when there is little chance of winning

why a campaign manager would want to prolong a losing campaign escapes me

any ideas?

[LiberalFighter]

11. Money

[Thinkingabout]

12. Yes more paydays

[riversedge]

17. Thank you. for that infor.

[Tarheel_Dem]

9. Yup. And as for those polls showing BS thumping Trump by wider margins that Hillary?

Remember that time when Dukakis led Bush by seventeen points, and turned around lost by 8? GE matchups among Tad Devine candidates never pan out the way they're predicted to. Devine's history shows that he doesn't close well, but he sure gets to pad his bank account in the attempt. The good news is that Devine won't close well in our primaries either.

[DemonGoddess]

15. K&R!

MATH FTW!

[sheshe2]

16. K&R