Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumFiveThirtyEight now has a projection for California.
Projected vote share: Hillary 60.8%, Bernie 37.8%.
Hillary has an 86% chance to win.
The confidence intervals are EXTREMELY wide, so this could change dramatically as more polling comes in. You've been warned.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)CA is an open primary.
stopbush
(24,396 posts)Independents can't participate, IIRC. You have to be registered as "not affiliated" or as American Independent Party or as a D or R, ie: the AIP, Ds and Rs will accept a not affiliated voter to vote in their primaries. I don't think Rs can cross over and vote D.
http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov//ccrov/pdf/2016/january/16036em.pdf
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)stopbush
(24,396 posts)Independents wanting to vote for BS or Hill need to change to "not affiliated" to vote in the D primary.
liberal N proud
(60,344 posts)Ahead of the election they will claim that there is something wrong with the California primary.
bluestateguy
(44,173 posts)but it has to hold until June 7.
Does California have an early voting system? If so, how commonly used is it?
Got to bank those votes early.
stopbush
(24,396 posts)Last day to register is May 23; last day to request mail-in ballot May 31.
LiberalFighter
(51,084 posts)So instead of 284-191 net 93
it should be about 293-182 net 111
Treant
(1,968 posts)Polls-Only, which shrinks the spread considerably (the confidence intervals are, however, still just as wide). It shows a more narrow, but still quite solid, Clinton win.