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Yavin4

(35,445 posts)
Tue Apr 5, 2016, 11:59 AM Apr 2016

Be prepared. Tonight will be bad for Hillary.

Keep in mind, this is a delegate race, not a states race. If Hillary meets her target of 38 delegates, she wins.

Sanders is a blow hard, but like all blow hards, he will run out steam. If Hillary wins NY, then the race will be over. It will be officially over on the 26th.

My advice to you is to remain calm. Stay off GDP tonight. Binge watch something on Netflix and get prepared to party on the 26th.

23 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Be prepared. Tonight will be bad for Hillary. (Original Post) Yavin4 Apr 2016 OP
Good advice. Gman Apr 2016 #1
Do you happen to know... CalvinballPro Apr 2016 #2
44 % out of 86 Her Sister Apr 2016 #4
It'll be close, IMO. BlueMTexpat Apr 2016 #3
Great advice! Her Sister Apr 2016 #5
Great advice. kstewart33 Apr 2016 #6
Not worried - this is a primary, not a caucus - no bullying allowed at the polls.... George II Apr 2016 #7
They're... JSup Apr 2016 #18
Excellent point! George II Apr 2016 #21
It won't be that bad tonight cosmicone Apr 2016 #8
Thinking close also... Satch59 Apr 2016 #9
I don't know JustAnotherGen Apr 2016 #10
It will be bad, but I don't think it will be as bad as we fear. Chichiri Apr 2016 #11
I'll be at work DemonGoddess Apr 2016 #12
I'm not worried. Bernie will probably win, but he's running out of white states and caucuses. DanTex Apr 2016 #13
My gut tells me that Hillary will pull out a squeaker of a victory. stopbush Apr 2016 #14
yes SanDiegoDem Apr 2016 #15
Nice take on the primary tonite!! Her Sister Apr 2016 #20
Great advice. Can't wait for her to secure the nomination so the Bernie Bros return to their caves. beaglelover Apr 2016 #16
It's not going to be that horrible. NuclearDem Apr 2016 #17
I'm unconcerned. Treant Apr 2016 #19
It occurs to me while I watch some of the activity on #TellUsHowBernie that the timing... CalvinballPro Apr 2016 #22
Good advice SharonClark Apr 2016 #23

Gman

(24,780 posts)
1. Good advice.
Tue Apr 5, 2016, 12:04 PM
Apr 2016

However I think it'll be close and HRC just might eke out a win, although 38 is a win.

BlueMTexpat

(15,373 posts)
3. It'll be close, IMO.
Tue Apr 5, 2016, 12:09 PM
Apr 2016

Anything close is as good as a win.

But I can still hope that enough of Bernie's "luster" will have dimmed in time. There is - at long, long last - some vetting being done.

kstewart33

(6,551 posts)
6. Great advice.
Tue Apr 5, 2016, 12:23 PM
Apr 2016

I'm making fajitas for the family and we're watching 'Room.' I've heard that the two leads are phenomenal.

George II

(67,782 posts)
7. Not worried - this is a primary, not a caucus - no bullying allowed at the polls....
Tue Apr 5, 2016, 12:26 PM
Apr 2016

Even if Clinton loses by five or six percent (that's what it looks like now), Sanders will only get 4 or 6 more delegates.

I've been wrong before, but I think it will be even closer than that, maybe even a win for Clinton.

JSup

(740 posts)
18. They're...
Tue Apr 5, 2016, 03:34 PM
Apr 2016

...really good at bullying, aren't they?

What is it about 'fighting against oppression' that turns you into an oppressor?

 

cosmicone

(11,014 posts)
8. It won't be that bad tonight
Tue Apr 5, 2016, 12:36 PM
Apr 2016

52-48 Bernie

Bernie falls further behind and his targets for remaining state reach astronomical levels.

Satch59

(1,353 posts)
9. Thinking close also...
Tue Apr 5, 2016, 12:37 PM
Apr 2016

Thought there was an article posted about early voting in Milwaukee was up 800% and that is a Hill strong hold?

Waiting for reports of college kids being turned away because of Voter ID law trouble? That may play into the story...not wishing trouble on anyone but you needed to be informed early.

Thinking all the BS'rs in NY might not know it's a closed primary and deadlines have passed to do anything about it. He might get big crowds there but I'll guess they can't turn into votes.

JustAnotherGen

(31,874 posts)
10. I don't know
Tue Apr 5, 2016, 01:09 PM
Apr 2016

Five Thirty Eight weighted the ARG poll up there with Emerson - That one has her winning by +1.

I don't think it's a blowout for Sanders.

Chichiri

(4,667 posts)
11. It will be bad, but I don't think it will be as bad as we fear.
Tue Apr 5, 2016, 01:48 PM
Apr 2016

I think Bernie will come up short of the 50 delegates he needs.

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
13. I'm not worried. Bernie will probably win, but he's running out of white states and caucuses.
Tue Apr 5, 2016, 01:57 PM
Apr 2016

The latest stretch of Bernie wins isn't a new shift in momentum, it's just a stretch of low-diversity states that are favorable to him demographically.

stopbush

(24,396 posts)
14. My gut tells me that Hillary will pull out a squeaker of a victory.
Tue Apr 5, 2016, 02:56 PM
Apr 2016

1. The early voting was very high, and Hillary has so far benefitted from early voting

2. College IDs are not accepted as valid ID to vote. This will cut into Sanders typically overwhelming Indy vote. Other voter suppression tactics instituted by Scott Walker will effect both candidates equally.

3. The polls have been fluctuating, which tells me that Sanders' momentum is once again grinding to a halt. Sanders had a clear lead a few weeks ago, but Hillary has led in a few recent polls. Poor attendance figures at his latest rallies confirm that Sanders' momentum is soft.

4. Hillary is very strong in Milwaukee, while Sanders is strong in Madison. But Madison is a real college town, see #2 above. And there are more votes in the Milwaukee area.

5. Unknown - will Indies who can vote opt to cast their vote in the R primary to stop Trump, rather than voting for BS?

Worst case scenario is Sanders squeaks out a win, but his net delegates aren't enough to make a difference.

 

NuclearDem

(16,184 posts)
17. It's not going to be that horrible.
Tue Apr 5, 2016, 03:31 PM
Apr 2016

We dealt with New Hampshire and the western caucuses, and tonight will be even closer.

I'm not confident it will be a Hillary win, but it's going to be close enough that the delegates will be split evenly.

Treant

(1,968 posts)
19. I'm unconcerned.
Tue Apr 5, 2016, 03:37 PM
Apr 2016

Win or lose, meet his target or not, it doesn't matter. Wyoming will be a blowout for Sanders.

Then comes New York, and Pennsylvania. And Maryland. These three form the rock on which the SS Sanders founders for the last time.

 

CalvinballPro

(1,019 posts)
22. It occurs to me while I watch some of the activity on #TellUsHowBernie that the timing...
Tue Apr 5, 2016, 06:22 PM
Apr 2016

...of this interview and the subsequent shitstorm comes too late to really affect the primary taking place today. Imagine how WI would have voted if they'd known just two days ago how poorly prepared Sanders is for the Oval Office.

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