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Roverticus

(74 posts)
Tue Sep 11, 2012, 01:09 PM Sep 2012

Chavez v. Capriles, two polls and the Venezuelan election

[IMG][/IMG]

Average of two major opposing polls: Chavez +5.4*

Hugo Chavez 46.4%

United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV)

Henrique Carpiles 41%

Democratic Unity Coalition (MUD)

*Average reflects sum of percent support for each candidate in polls conducted by Datanlysis and Consultores21



If the elections are decided purely upon campaign videos, then Chavez maintains an advantage.

“Mi Comandante” – Chavez’s Official Campaign Song



“Hay un Camino” – Capriles Campaign Video


Datanalysis: Chavez +12.5

Hugo Chavez 46.8%

Henrique Capriles 34.3%

“The socialist’s advantage narrowed to 12.5 points in a Datanalisis poll in August from 15.3 percentage points in June.”

Consultores21: Capriles +1.8

Henrique Capriles 47.7%

Hugo Chavez 45.9%

Survey of 1,000 people had a margin or error of 3.2 percentage points.

“A poll taken between June 15 and June 26 showed the president with 45.9 percent support against 45.8 percent for Capriles. The Caracas-based pollster correctly predicted that Chavez’s opponents would win a slender majority in the popular vote in legislative elections in September 2010.”

http://revpana.wordpress.com/2012/09/10/venezuela-election-poll/
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Chavez v. Capriles, two polls and the Venezuelan election (Original Post) Roverticus Sep 2012 OP
Impressions... Peace Patriot Sep 2012 #1
I see a stark difference. The Chavez add is about "Comandante." joshcryer Sep 2012 #3
The Chavez ad has 8,000 views. The Capriles ad has 28,000. joshcryer Sep 2012 #2
You Must Be Joking unsorted Sep 2012 #4
Thanks for clearing up a misperception! Judi Lynn Sep 2012 #5
Fair enough. joshcryer Sep 2012 #6
You're wrong again! unsorted Sep 2012 #8
Twitter Audit tells the real story. joshcryer Sep 2012 #9
You cannot address my main point, can you? unsorted Sep 2012 #11
Erm, I gave the evidence that refuted your claim. joshcryer Sep 2012 #12
OK, let's wrap this up. unsorted Sep 2012 #16
OK, I will address the polls. joshcryer Sep 2012 #17
Hugo Chavez Phony. isaacdonado Sep 2012 #18
More ridiculous than Romney's assertions? You missed the moon bombing threads also. uppityperson Sep 2012 #7
You Chávez sympathizers have got to be kidding me. Please watch this video... Marksman_91 Sep 2012 #10
They will still support im after watching the video naaman fletcher Sep 2012 #13
Wow... Are people here really that stupid? Marksman_91 Sep 2012 #14
They are not "stupid" naaman fletcher Sep 2012 #15

Peace Patriot

(24,010 posts)
1. Impressions...
Tue Sep 11, 2012, 11:42 PM
Sep 2012

The Capriles ad is all about Mr. Photogenic, Capriles, not so much about the people.

The Chavez ad is all about the people--not so much about Chavez himself.

I really liked the lengthy segments in the Chavez ad depicting ordinary Venezuelans getting up in the morning and looking in the mirror with calm satisfaction. These segments say: This is about equal opportunity, education, self-respect, a strong sense of personal well-being and future prospects, universal free medical care, high GDP, low unemployment and remarkable fairness on income--all provable, measurable achievements of the Chavez government that don't have to be itemized; they are evident in how people feel about themselves.

Chavez does not appear in these segments, nor in later segments showing Venezuelans at work and play.

In the Capriles ad, the presence of ordinary people is about Capriles: Capriles visiting the poor, Capriles visiting flood victims. Capriles is the central image in virtually every shot. It's all about his interaction with people, not about the people themselves.

Also, I get a sense of an imposed image, in the Capriles ad; whereas in the Chavez ad, Chavez looks more comfortable with himself and his role. He seems to BE himself. Capriles not so much. Capriles seems more of an actor--and sort of a blank, actually--the kind of bland, meaningless politician that is depicted in movies and TV shows, when politics is part of the story. A "Central Casting" politician.

In general, there is a lot more "heart" in the Chavez ad. The filmmakers seemed to be genuinely enchanted by ordinary Venezuelans. Capriles' ad seems more "canned."

Of course, no one should ever vote on the basis of ads. Modern media is bad enough as to conveying falsehoods about politics and government. Add P.R. people and campaign organizations with agendas, making slick, short, commercial type productions, and the result is often even more unreal and/or untruthful than "the news."

My reaction to these ads is heavily colored by what I know about Chavez and his government's achievements. For instance, Venezuelans recently rated their own country fifth in the world on their personal sense of well-being and future prospects, in polls that focus upon those things. And the UN Economic Commission on Latin America and the Caribbean last year designated Venezuela "THE most equal country in Latin America" on income distribution.

The Chavez ad seems to me to be depicting the reality of most Venezuelans: a sense of well-being and new self-respect--and it is their accomplishment as much as, and even more than, his.

I also have a particular criticism--amidst many criticisms--of the Corporate Media coverage of Chavez, which is that they NEVER credit the voters, the Venezuelan majority, ordinary Venezuelans, and the many, many, hard-working, committed grass roots activists and social, political and labor organizations in Venezuela, all of whom, together, have created Venezuela's "New Deal"--the Bolivarian Revolution. They instead focus exclusively on Chavez and, of course, demonize him falsely and relentlessly.

So, WHY DOES CHAVEZ KEEP WINNING ELECTIONS and by big majorities? You can't learn why from the Corporate Media. They give the impression that Chavez elects himself! Not true! These are honest, transparent elections (unlike our own), closely monitored and certified by every major election monitoring group in the world. They are also honest and transparent on the face of the election system details (which I have looked into). The Corporate Media doesn't credit this either and they treat Venezuelan voters like a bunch of stupid peasants who aren't worth mention. These are some of the most remarkable democratic citizens in the world, who reversed a coup d'etat by their sheer numbers, determination and courage, and who are engaged in a remarkable project: creating a fair and equitable and truly democratic society.

The Chavez ad speaks to this--to the remarkable self-respect and laudable goals of ordinary Venezuelans. It, of course, has the huge, deliriously happy crowd at a Chavez rally and a benevolent-looking Chavez. That's par for the course in political ads. But those ordinary working Venezuelans looking in their mirrors in the morning--THAT spoke to me.

Have I been manipulated? Well, yeah. Ads are, by their nature, manipulative. What I would say is that the Chavistas are better at it than Capriles' ad makers. It is an art form. The better the art, the more do you feel a sense of "truth." These and most political ads are all about feelings, not facts. Impressions. Images. Gut feelings. Senses of things. "Soft" truth rather than "hard" truth. The Chavez ad tended to confirm the facts that I already knew and the opinions I have formed. The Capriles ad made me uneasy--and that tended to confirm what I know about Capriles and my prior opinion of him.

And that is one great campaign song that the Chavez ad makers had to work with! An upbeat, joy-making, dance-able song. Though I don't know much about music, it has a "local" and traditional feel, and I happen to know that the Chavez government has greatly promoted saving and reviving Venezuela's own music. Moodwise, the ad and the music are a perfect match.

Thanks for going to the trouble of posting these ads!

joshcryer

(62,276 posts)
3. I see a stark difference. The Chavez add is about "Comandante."
Thu Sep 13, 2012, 07:07 AM
Sep 2012

The freaking title is "My Commander!" The imagery is of Chavistas, exclusively. It's about "the party." "The Commander" and "The Party."

It's a really nicely done propaganda piece.

Capriles' video, on the other hand, shows him with the people, not Chavistas forced to wear red to campaign events, but everyday Venezuelans who aren't forced to toe an ideological line. It shows his vitality and moving forward.

It's not nearly as propagandistic as Chavez' video.

unsorted

(5 posts)
4. You Must Be Joking
Thu Sep 13, 2012, 01:02 PM
Sep 2012

This is the most ridiculous assertion ever made.

The same Chavez ad, posted elsewhere on YouTube, has 53,611 views.





Judi Lynn

(160,545 posts)
5. Thanks for clearing up a misperception!
Thu Sep 13, 2012, 03:48 PM
Sep 2012

Last edited Thu Sep 13, 2012, 08:34 PM - Edit history (1)

Welcome to D.U., unsorted.

It's a great commercial, no doubt about it. The truth shines out from their faces. as always.

joshcryer

(62,276 posts)
6. Fair enough.
Thu Sep 13, 2012, 10:02 PM
Sep 2012

How many people does Chavez have on Facebook?

Is this his official Facebook page? http://www.facebook.com/ChavezCorazonPatria

Capriles has almost 500k: http://www.facebook.com/HenriqueCaprilesRadonski

You're correct that I wasn't thorough. I simply don't see as much of a presence online for Chavistas as I do Capriles. It's possible a lot of those YouTube views for that video are foreign and not from Venezuela.

unsorted

(5 posts)
8. You're wrong again!
Sat Sep 15, 2012, 11:44 PM
Sep 2012

You want to keep playing this game? All right then...

How many followers does Chavez have on Twitter? Answer: 3,440,622.

How many followers does Capriles have on Twitter? Answer: less than half of what Chavez has.

But my main point is that comparing the number of YouTube views, Twitter followers, or Facebook friends they each have is a stupid fucking metric for determining which candidate is "more relevant" than the other. Don't you get it?

BTW, why don't you look at public opinion surveys? Could it be that you are resorting to other metrics because the vast majority of established Venezuelan pollsters give Chavez a solid two-digit lead (and have been for months)?

joshcryer

(62,276 posts)
9. Twitter Audit tells the real story.
Sun Sep 16, 2012, 12:07 AM
Sep 2012
http://www.twitteraudit.com/chavezcandanga

http://www.twitteraudit.com/hcapriles

Meanwhile Capriles doesn't have the benefit of thousands of foreign "fans" padding his stats.

Anyway, this is my personal view, and thus of course is not going to be 100% factual. It is my opinion that Capriles has a bigger real web presence than Chavez. Chavez owns the Venezuelan airwaves (with his daily cadenas).

He simply cannot touch Capriles online presence, I don't care what you say, I've been following this extremely closely. Just because some confirmation bias set in on a YouTube video doesn't change what I see. I was wrong about that and I admitted it.

Here look at the Twitter trendmap: http://trendsmap.com/local/venezuela

unsorted

(5 posts)
11. You cannot address my main point, can you?
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 04:50 PM
Sep 2012

I find it curious that you are apparently refusing to address what I've highlighted as "my main point". Even if it were true that Capriles has a "bigger real web presence than Chavez"--a claim which I have shown is capable of being refuted by evidence--who cares? I ask you, since when has "online presence" meant a damn thing in a democracy?

It is really sad that you are "following this [which candidate has a "bigger real web presence"] extremely closely" while at the same time willfully ignoring the fact most polls show Capriles trailing Chavez by double digits!

I don't know what you're trying to prove. ....that Capriles is an internet meme, like Chuck Norris, Scumbag Steve, Keyboard Cat, the Double Rainbow guy, and Rickrolling?

joshcryer

(62,276 posts)
12. Erm, I gave the evidence that refuted your claim.
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 06:50 PM
Sep 2012

It's not how many people you have following you, it's the level of dialog that exists. Chavez has little Facebook presence and much smaller Twitter presence than Capriles, the stats prove it.

But whatever, it may mean nothing.

I just think that when Capriles wins you should remember that he had a bigger web presence and that helps explain why.

Because I know when he wins Chavez supporters are going to lose their collective shit.

unsorted

(5 posts)
16. OK, let's wrap this up.
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 07:00 AM
Sep 2012

Last edited Wed Sep 19, 2012, 07:43 AM - Edit history (1)


You are convinced that it's not a question of "IF" Capriles wins, but "WHEN" he does? Do you know how childish it is to pretend to know the election outcome in advance?

You "know" that Capriles will win, but you base your argument not on opinion polls--the vast majority of which suggest that Chavez is about to pull off another landslide--but on your idiosyncratic assessment of which candidate has a larger online presence.

Since you admit that online presence "may mean nothing", how can you claim to know the outcome of the election on this basis?

joshcryer

(62,276 posts)
17. OK, I will address the polls.
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 08:05 PM
Sep 2012

I don't think the polls are accurate. I think that for one a lot of the polls are fly by night Chavista polling groups that have no track record.

When you look at the pollsters that do have a track record like Datanálisis and C21 then yes, it's interesting.

In C21 Capriles and Chavez are at a dead heat.

DA shows that Chavez is far ahead but then when you look at the details of the poll it shows that there are a major number of undecideds.

And then there are poll analysis' showing that Capriles is converging.

I don't think Datanálisis is accurate simply because they give Chavez winning Capriles' home state. That's just not going to happen. Capriles is loved in Miranda. Even more ridiculous is that they think he'll win in Nueva Esparta which has never gone for Chavez.

Chavez is unable to campaign on the ground. He's made a few dozen appearances in public since June. Capriles has made almost 300 and he will campaign daily on the ground. Chavez only hope is that in the week long period when neither side can campaign he runs daily cadenas talking about how imperialism is encroaching on Venezuela. And I suspect that he will use the cadenas in that "no campaigning" period (chains: they're like the Emergency Broadcast System that Chavez has abused to allow him to speak to the entire country for hours every day).

Meanwhile Twitter does show that Capriles is more talked about and Facebook shows he has a dominant presence there.

It's hard not to see how this thing is going to go. I don't make proclamations like this because these forums can be cruel, hateful, atrocious, some of the most vile posts are here, and I guarantee you if I'm wrong I will be mocked and derided here. So I wouldn't make this prediction unless I had a really good feeling that he's going to win.

isaacdonado

(1 post)
18. Hugo Chavez Phony.
Thu Sep 20, 2012, 11:37 PM
Sep 2012

I am a Venezuelan and have been living in Venezuela for 5 years now after I moved back from Miami and I've seen mostly negative actions by the government, I am almost certain Chavez will win again however I don't think it's the best option for the country.
He is not in touch with the people, he just builds them houses and claims HE is giving the people houses... Using their own money but he claims it's his work. He puts the nicest houses on TV, and the crappy ones (the majority) are never on TV. He just targets the majority of the poor people tosses them money now and then and they will vote for him. He hasn't done much for Venezuela he only had built crappy houses for votes, and one University a very crappy one too. He has some programs for people who don't know how to write or read, the problem is it doesn't work and they receive a title for it. Every other organization or institution he has given the people is from the past governments, he hasn't built anything. He only nationalizes everything or confiscates companies puts up a lot of ads, gives workers salaries and pretty much tells them if they don't vote for him he will fire them and they will have no job. I'd say about 40% of us want a change, I see things in Venezuela that have never been seen before and he just denies everything, he denies the FARC is in our territory and I actually know a Doctor hired by the FARC to cure their soldiers, I met a land owner and a revolutionary group was asking for money or they would kill his cows, he tried telling the military and they told him to go back and obey because they work together. My cousin works in PDVSA and they force him to support Chavez in front of his building. He gives benefits to the employees of SOME nationalized companies but the quality is bad because they give them so many benefits some don't even go to work and those are who support Chavez. I personally see nothing wrong with a moderate capitalism it has been proven to work, unlike socialism and I will vote for Capriles.

I dislike so much how Chavez is always insulting everyone who does not agree with him, fires anyone who is not with him and says so many lies, I know all politicians lie but seriously, he abuses because he knows the majority of his followers have no knowledge of anything they only want to eat and have a place to live.

He recently said anyone who did not support his ideology is not only not part of the revolution but they aren't Venezuelans. How is he going to tell me I am no longer Venezuelan because I think his government plan will not work.

Another thing, Capriles' family has always been rich and they never have left the country. The Chavez family was a poor family from Barinas and they now mostly live in Miami and New York except for his mother who lives in Cuba. and they are all suddenly millionaires and go to Universities in USA but he doesn't deny that, he does not even speak about that. All I know is whatever the results are, I hope this doesn't cause chaos. But unfortunately it most likely will if Chavez wins, and it is very probable he will too. I fear for my life every time I walk outside the door or when I'm sleeping. The insecurity here is horrible! and Capriles offers a good plan for that I think Life is more important than anything and most Venezuelans live with the fear of being killed for a cellphone or their wallet Chavez has done nothing to prevent this. I'm sorry if I'm a little off topic I just want the people who live outside of Venezuela to open their eyes and not believe in him, he is full of lies. You can search up "Usted lo vio globovision" and observe how every promise he made years back, he now says the exact opposite. It's amazing.

 

Marksman_91

(2,035 posts)
10. You Chávez sympathizers have got to be kidding me. Please watch this video...
Sun Sep 16, 2012, 09:17 PM
Sep 2012
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xtjiwd_extreme-world-venezuela_news?start=1

Mind you, it's about 40 minutes long, but well worth the watch.

Let's see if anyone here keeps supporting Chavez after watching it.

I'm Venezuelan myself, lived my whole life in Caracas, and I am just appalled by the amount of people that support him in this site. How about you actually go live in the country he's the president of before making any judgments?

You might've heard about Chávez having ordered the Venezuelan consulate in Miami to be shut down simply because he was butthurt. He plays dirty with elections, and knows that 99% of the people in Florida and its surrounding states would vote against him. Now what was once a small drive for many is gonna be almost a day worth of driving just to vote, since we've all been relocated to vote in the New Orleans consulate. But I assure you, MANY people are mobilizing anyway to go vote there, including myself. It's time we elected somebody new. Chávez had his chance for 14 years now, and he blew it big time. It's time for a change.
 

naaman fletcher

(7,362 posts)
13. They will still support im after watching the video
Tue Sep 18, 2012, 10:44 AM
Sep 2012

It is the opinion of many here that the violence in venezuela is actually caused by Fascists trying to undermine Chavez.

 

Marksman_91

(2,035 posts)
14. Wow... Are people here really that stupid?
Tue Sep 18, 2012, 10:52 AM
Sep 2012

Chávez has been in power for 14 years now. That's longer than any other government of the previous "4th Republic". If they think that all the country's problems are because of "fascists" (don't know which ones they're talking about, anyway. Chávez's government controls pretty much all major institutions), then they're simply misguided ignorants.

 

naaman fletcher

(7,362 posts)
15. They are not "stupid"
Tue Sep 18, 2012, 11:00 AM
Sep 2012

Some are actually quite intelligent, but they have bought into an entire value system where everything is white or black, and there are no shades of grey. It is their entire personal identity. So, for example, when the refinery blast happened, it had to have been sabotage. Anything else would question their entire identity.

It's like trying to talk to someone about religion.

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