...not to mention beautiful and healthy people, out in the street, having a good time campaigning. A very cheering vid.
Maybe the camera was favoring the beautiful and the healthy, I don't know, but it struck me, watching the images: here are people who have medical care, preventive care, dental care, and don't look worried, harassed, in debt, unemployed--people with relaxed faces, even when they are speaking passionately about political ideas.
My ideas of beauty and health go beyond conventional prettiness and youth. Chunky, middle-aged women who nevertheless look solid, energetic, comfortable on their feet, happy to be outdoors, with untroubled faces, no make up and intelligent eyes and expressions, are beautiful to me, for instance. They don't look desperate for consumer goods, economic advantage and the best parking spot, the way some women in that age group do in other societies.
Anyway, in general, a very positive impression of the people out on the street in Venezuela rallying for the election.
Nice seeing Tamara Pearson. I've often read her pieces at venezuelanalysis.com. Didn't know she was Australian. These solidarity groups (solidarity with the chavistas) in the UK and Australia seem quite active and they are very good at getting information out, in the face of relentlessly negative coverage of the Chavez government and its supporters in the Corporate Media.
I was struck by one thing she said in this vid. She mentioned an important difference between the daily street presence of pro-Chavez vs. pro-Capriles supporters, that the Chavez supporters are much more numerous on a daily basis and more festive, and that the Capriles supporters are often paid to be on the street, to sell t-shirts, etc. She is, of course, a partisan, but she's also a pretty careful observer. I don't think she would say this without evidence but I didn't get the impression that it was the result of any comprehensive survey or inquiry; just her impression.
It does make sense. Chavez supporters have a lot more to cheer about and to come out and shout and sing about--for hours and hours, handing out pamphlets in big festive groups on street corners. They are ahead in the polls and are probably going to win big, again. The benefits of the Chavez government are quite real and substantial. As Pearson points out, they feel them in their daily lives (good wages, health care, etc.) Chavez has a 64% approval rating, according to the Mitofksy-Mexico study of the major polls. And he is 10% to 15% up on Capriles in pre-election polls.
All this would tend to dampen enthusiasm of Capriles supporters and maybe make them less inclined to volunteer on street corners (thus, the campaign pays some people to be there). However, I read another account of the street life of this campaign (by an Englishman) who described more equal enthusiasm and presence of both sides in the street campaigning.
It's important not to gage these things wrong--or in an overly partisan way--and "street presence" doesn't necessarily translate into votes. Also, there are other indications that Capriles has, indeed, done better at attracting support than previous rightwing candidates. Further, the rightwing opposition made advances in the National Assembly in the last election. The Capriles supporters here at DU--though they are a very untrustworthy lot, as to facts--seem to think that Capriles could win. I tend to think this is more delusion than reality (Venezuela's RW opposition has been delusional in the past, quite demonstrably), and, gut feeling, all in all, I really don't think that Venezuelans are going to vote to reverse their "New Deal" and I do think that they are savvy voters (much savvier than our own), as to reading a candidate's true intentions, in this case, Capriles' true attitude toward Chavez's "New Deal" (says he supports social programs but probably will start dismantling them).
One last item on guessing the outcome for Sunday: Venezuelans voted, by a big margin, to let Chavez run for a third term. (That national vote also included lifting term limits on governors.) That vote may be something of a predicter of this one. Why would they trust Chavez that much, to positively endorse the idea of a third term, and, all things being equal--he's obviously healthy and his platform hasn't changed--not give him one?
No, one more item--image: Not scientific. Gut feeling. Capriles is too slick. Too airbrushed. Too pretty. Chavez not only looks like an ordinary guy--not like some slim, veg-drinking, Wall Street trader in mortgage derivatives--he's been through the mill, with illness, coup attempt, mind-boggling pressures, breakup of his marriage, total hostility of the Corporate Press and of course our own government, and has produced, for Venezuelans, on most of their "New Deal" desires, including putting Venezuela back into good economic growth in the midst of a worldwide depression, without cutting any social programs. THAT is a "worker-friendly president" in image and in substance.
That chunky, quite genuinely smiling face has got it all over Capriles in charisma, with obvious substance behind the charisma. Capriles looks untested--perhaps more untested than he really is. (He is a governor.) If I were one of those chunky, energetic middle-aged women--the ones I noticed in this vid--I might want him to marry my daughter; I might even think he's kind of cute; but I wouldn't want him running things, no way. He's got a long way to go before I would trust him with my wages, my pension, my health care and the welfare and future prospects of my family and my community.
The miracle of Venezuela is that the votes of ordinary people really do count (and get counted): the miracle (not really a miracle) of real democracy. The common sense, the intelligence, the savvy, the shrewdness, the experience, the activism of ordinary people really does have a chance to determine who gets to run the government.
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