The Real News network's excellent report on the Chavez health crisis in Venezuela

[Peace Patriot]

http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=9487

The Real News' Senior Editor Paul Jay interviews Alex Main, the Senior Associate for International Relations at CEPR. There is both vid of the interview and a transcript.

It's the kind of analysis we NEVER get from our corporate media. Analysis that reflects REALITY--the reality of the smashing victory that the chavistas just won in the governors' elections on top of Chavez getting re-elected, the reality of other Latin American leaders endorsing the process in Venezuela (the supreme court postponing the inauguration of Chavez**), details of the applicable laws, Chavez's VP Nicholas Maduro's chances of election if an election is called (virtual certainty), what the rightwing opposition is actually doing and saying, and--a very important point--that the new friendly contacts by the U.S. actually started way back in November, with Chavez, and NOT as an opportunistic ploy given Chavez's ill health.

The CIA and the MIC are, of course, not to be trusted and I REALLY DISAGREE with Alex Main's positive assessment of Chuck Hagel and wonder if he knows Hagel's election fraud history--he is one of the AUTHOR's of the demise of honest, transparent elections here in the U.S. (What wouldn't he do to get votes 'counted' in Venezuela using ES&S/Diebold's 'TRADE SECRET' code?!). But, still, one can HOPE for better relations between the U.S. and Venezuela, or, rather, for the U.S. to call off its war and chaos dogs. And I think that Main/CEPR is in a better position to know the scuttlebutt in DC than I am--way more.

In any case, here is a NEW source for real world news/opinion about Latin America (and other subjects). I'm looking forward to checking with The Real News now, when we get disinformation and propaganda from the corporate media and need to find out what's really happening. While we should always question all news sources, I am sick unto death of the garbage we've been getting on the Latin America Left from the Corporate Media--a poison that has seriously infected the BBC and even the Guardian. We have such a dearth of reliable or at least counter-balancing news sources. You can count them on one hand--on less than one hand--and most of those are partisan and/or rather obscure or only occasionally cover LatAm events. It's such a boon to find a NEWS SERVICE that is not egregiously biased against the Left!

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** (from the interview--my emphasis) MAIN: That's right. So that's Marco Aurélio, adviser to President Dilma Rousseff of Brazil. He was just recently in Cuba and had long meetings. It's not clear whether he met with President Chávez or not. He certainly met with (Vice) President Maduro. And he returned from that trip with some strong statements to the press, in which he said indeed he believed that it was constitutional for the inauguration to be postponed, and even offered that it might be postponed for as long as 180 days, according to the Constitution.

[Bacchus4.0]

1. there is no mention of 90 or 180 days in the Ven constitution. Main lies

But since he worked for the Ven government in the Ven Info Office what would you expect. You don't see that job in his bio. I wonder why.

[joshcryer]

3. The 180 day thing is procedural.

Last edited Sun Jan 13, 2013, 07:14 PM - Edit history (1)

It can be implied from the constitution.

In any event this is what I said would happen in another thread where I was bashed relentlessly by the more nasty posters here. So I guess PP agrees with my analysis.

edit: of course, if this does go over the 180 day time line (which is basically what the TSJ ordered), I'm sure the goalposts will be moved yet again.

[Peace Patriot]

6. The National Assembly has the power to grant the President leave for 90 says, and extend...

...to another 90 days. It's been mentioned numerous times in these discussions. This 90 days plus 90 days law is tied to the 30 days to a new election provision in the Constitution. When the 180 days expire--if granted by the National Assembly--the 30 days deadline kicks in. It doesn't matter whether the 180 days provision is specified by the Constitution or was enacted by the National Assembly. It is THE LAW OF THE LAND. Not everything that our federal government does is specified in the U.S. Constitution (by a long shot). Legislatures INTERPRET the Constitution and WRITE LAWS accordingly. And if they err in their interpretation, in the Supreme Court's opinion, the Supreme Court can declare the law unconstitutional. The Venezuelan Supreme Court did not do so--so presumably the 180 day leave provision IS in the Constitution or it doesn't matter that it isn't--it is a logical legal development out of the Constitution, enacted by Venezuela's elected legislature and thus far approved by the Supreme Court, which recently issued its opinion that postponing the inauguration IS constitutional.

So what are you belly-aching about? That the rightwing did not succeed in throwing the duly elected President out of office AGAIN, this time because he is ill?

Venezuelan law WISELY provides for a time period to determine the President-elect's ability to govern. He is the elected president of the country, by a big margin (10%). His government's policies are the clear choice of the Venezuelan people, given his recent electoral victory and the overwhelming chavista win in the governor elections on top of that. To throw him out because he is ill would be obscene and wrong. So the National Assembly has or will grant him leave (I believe they have already done so) and the Supreme Court agreed to postponement of the inauguration. Everyone with any sense realizes that to do anything else is to violate the will of the people and to INVITE destabilization of the country.

Say he was a rightwinger and the same thing had happened--just elected by a big margin and the same party wins most of the governors' elections--and the rightwing president falls ill before the inauguration. Wouldn't you wish the government and relevant authorities to honor that election, and to provide the president-elect time to recover from his illness before acting as if he had died (will never recover; will never be capable of governing)?

This is an unusual situation, to be sure. I can't think of any precedent for it, here or anywhere. But it seems to me that Venezuelan law covers it better than any I've heard of. They HAVE a provision for this. (The 90 plus 90 law.) Why shouldn't they implement their law? If Chavez was a usurper--was, in truth, a "dictator" or had stolen the election (and remember that Jimmy Carter recently said that Venezuela "has the best election system in the world&quot , here would be their chance to get rid of him. But no one is doing that--not Maduro (VP), not Cabello (president of the National Assembly), not the military, nor the Supreme Court, nor any other leader or faction with the power to do so. And the people of Venezuela are certainly NOT calling for Chavez's removal--they are calling for the opposite, for their votes to be respected, if that is possible (if Chavez has a chance to recover).

It is the right thing to do. It is the legal thing to do. It is the peoples' will. The Supreme Court agrees. They are giving their president-elect time to recover and assume his duties if possible.

Your posts are 100% anti-Chavez (in stark contradiction to the views of the majority of Venezuelans). So I can see that it would bug the hell out of you that Chavez was re-elected, that the chavistas won 20 of 23 governorships, that Chavez may recover from his illness, that most Venezuelans hope that he will, and that, if he doesn't, his VP Nicholas Maduro will very likely win a special election. But hating all this is one thing--holding views that are the polar opposite of the majority of Venezuelans is one thing--and wishing it all away is quite another; and seeking to impugn Venezuelan law in this case, when, in truth, you wouldn't do so if rightwingers had won, is quite another. What bugs the hell out of you is that the law is working as it should, that the country remains stable and that the will of the people is being respected. THAT is the reality. You are arguing against reality, as you so often have done.

[naaman fletcher]

7. That's absurd

"The National Assembly has the power to grant the President leave for 90 says, and extend...

...to another 90 days. It's been mentioned numerous times in these discussions."

He's not the president anymore. His term is over.

It doesn't matter whether the 180 days provision is specified by the Constitution or was enacted by the National Assembly. It is THE LAW OF THE LAND. Not everything that our federal government does is specified in the U.S. Constitution (by a long shot). Legislatures INTERPRET the Constitution and WRITE LAWS accordingly

But it is, specifically, in the constitution. The constitution wasn't vague on the matter. It anticipated exactly this situation and provided a very precise solution.

I only skimmed the rest of what you wrote, because it is not relevant. The constitution has a precise and exact mechanism for this, and the Chavistas chose to ignore it. You don't care because you are an "ends justify the means" person.

[Judi Lynn]

2. You're not alone in your perceptions of the wire services, and even British ones now.

I wonder if we would have ever discovered ourselves how wild their spin is without faster communication capabilities we get from the internet[font size=6]S[/font].

They have completely sold their consciences (souls) for apparently profitable jobs working actually for a political point of view.

That's not what we were taught to believe we could expect from the fourth estate. Not ever. I see them as criminals and moral degenerates.

The RRN interview was excellent, bringing forward insights well ignored by our own corporate "news".

Particularly interesting closing of the interview:

JAY: And if President Chávez does not survive this, or if he's not capable of coming back and resuming his office, what do you think in terms of the election? We would be into an election fairly soon after that as well. I think it has to be called within 30 days of that becoming clear. Is that correct? And then how does the electorial situation look like, given that President Chávez's party did sweep all the state elections and he just got reelected president? So in terms of the elections that will have to be called if President Chávez can't resume office, I mean, is there any reason to think that Maduro wouldn't simply repeat the same electoral victories that his party just won on state elections and the reelection of President Chávez?

MAIN: No. Really, you know, barring some sort of catastrophe, it would seem very unlikely that he would lose future elections. I think the opposition is quite clear on that, and—or at least some of the opposition is, and particularly the opposition that is interested in electoral victories, because, unfortunately, you still have a sector of the opposition which seems to be more intent on trying to destabilize the country.

But those who are, let's say, more mature about, you know, following electoral democracy's sort of precepts, they seem to be trying to buy time, and they haven't objected that greatly to the postponement of Chávez's inauguration. I think they see it as working in their favor. They would like to see perhaps a few months of rule under someone other than Chávez, whether it be Nicolás Maduro or the president of the National Assembly, Diosdado Cabello, and then try to undermine that individual in order to gain some clout, which they don't have at the moment. They're very weak, so they don't really have much to gain by having elections in 30 days.

Thank you for this information.

[Judi Lynn]

4. Google translation: Marco Aurélio Garcia: Brazil supports extend deadline for possession of Chávez

Marco Aurélio Garcia: Brazil supports extend deadline for possession of Chávez

International adviser Presidency was recently in Havana, Cuba, for determination of President Dilma Rousseff to inquire about the health of Venezuelan leader

January 7, 2013 | 20h 13

BRASILIA - The international adviser of the Presidency, Marco Aurelio Garcia, said it was "serious" health status of the president of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez. Garcia was recently in Havana, Cuba, for determination of President Dilma Rousseff to inquire about the health of Chavez. The visit took place on December 31 and January 1, but Garcia was not personally with Chávez, but with Fidel Castro and Raul Castro, and Venezuelan Vice President Nicolás Maduro.

In his remarks, Garcia made it clear that the Brazilian government supports the idea of ​​extending for up to 180 days the period for possession of Hugo Chavez. Garcia cited Article 234 of the Constitution of Venezuela to explain that if Chavez does not take on the 10th of January, new elections will be called hence the 30 days if the impediment of the current president is final. But if the impediment is temporary, this situation can be extended for six months, 90 days, extendable for another 90 days. He points out that there is a gap in interpreting the law, but the assessment is that, in this case, who assumes is the Vice President Maduro.

"The information I got is that his condition is serious and that, therefore, any prediction is impossible to be done at this time," said Garcia. He reported that Chávez was lucid, "Chavez was very weak, yet conscious."

The aide Dilma rejected any possibility of coup in the country and said that the extension of time to wait for the recovery of Chavez is not a governing strategy, but a fulfillment of the Constitution. He also rejected any comparison of the Venezuelan situation with the case of Paraguay, a country that has just kicked Mercosur because the bloc's members felt that there was no time for former President Fernando Lugo, who was impeached, defend himself of the charges, considering the coup maneuver Federico Franco, who took power.

http://www.estadao.com.br/noticias/nacional,marco-aurelio-garcia-brasil-apoia-prorrogar-prazo-para-posse-de-chavez,981574,0.htm

(Short article, no more at link.)

[Judi Lynn]

5. Marco Aurélio Garcia sees no instability in Venezuela (Google translation)

Marco Aurélio Garcia sees no instability in Venezuela
January 7, 2013 • 20h13 • updated January 7, 2013 at 23h27

The Brazil ignores any instability in Venezuela surrounding the absence of President Hugo Chavez at the induction ceremony, scheduled for next January 10, and considers that the Venezuelan Constitution provides mechanisms for succession later, on Monday said the aide Special chair for international affairs, Marco Aurelio Garcia.

Marco Aurélio Garcia, who described the state of health of Chavez's "serious", traveled to Havana on Dec. 31 to meet with the vice president of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, Cuban President Raul Castro and his brother Fidel Castro

"The information I got (in Havana) is that in the event that President Chavez could not attend Caracas (the 10th), there will be a constitutional cover" which provides the procedures, Garcia said at a news conference in Brasilia.

According to the special advisor to the president, there is a "period" of 90 days, extendable for another 90 days, before declaring the absence of the president and call for new elections in 30 days.

More:
http://noticias.terra.com.br/brasil/politica/marco-aurelio-garcia-nao-ve-instabilidade-na-venezuela,2cd946137561c310VgnCLD2000000ec6eb0aRCRD.html

[Judi Lynn]

8. Brazil leads international support for Chavez

Jan 9, 5:13 PM EST
Brazil leads international support for Chavez

By JULIANA BARBASSA
Associated Press

RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) -- Brazil and several other South American nations rallied behind Venezuela's decision to defer the inauguration of ailing leader Hugo Chavez, with the presidents of Uruguay and Bolivia and Haiti's prime minister traveling to Caracas on Wednesday in a show of support.

~snip~
Brazil's backing as a regional power is especially important as Venezuela tries to manage its political future, said Adam Isacson, of the Washington Office on Latin America, a U.S. think tank.
"Brazil has a record of saying `no' to Venezuela, of being independent," said Isacson. So when Brazil offers its support, "it really counts, it's not a knee-jerk" reaction, Isacson said.

Marco Aurelio Garcia, the top international affairs adviser to Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, visited Havana on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1, meeting with Cuban authorities and Venezuelan Vice president Nicolas Maduro, but not with Chavez himself.

Garcia has said that what he heard in Cuba, and found in additional research, convinced him that the Venezuelan constitution makes provisions for deferring a presidential inauguration if the elected leader cannot attend.

More:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/L/LT_CHAVEZ_WORLD_REACTION?SECTION=HOME&SITE=AP&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT