Consumer sentiment surges blah blah, University of Michigan

[progree]

but still worse than any time since the peak inflation months of 2022, except for one month (April?) in 2023, just barely; and except for the disastrously low previous 3 months (March, April, and May of this year). See graph below:

Consumer sentiment surges in first improvement since December, CNN, 6/13/25
https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/13/economy/consumer-sentiment-may

Consumer sentiment surged 16% this month to a preliminary reading of 60.5, the University of Michigan said in its latest survey released Friday. That was the first increase in sentiment since December, ... ... This month’s uptick in sentiment was largely attributed to trade tensions easing from a fever pitch in April. Still, sentiment is about 20% below December,

There are giddy bubbly headlines out there, but as always, look at the graph for perspective.

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From the source: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

Year-ahead inflation expectations plunged from 6.6% last month to 5.1% this month. Long-run inflation expectations fell for the second straight month, stepping down from 4.2% in May to 4.1% in June. Still, inflation expectations remain above readings seen throughout the second half of 2024, reflecting widespread beliefs that trade policy may still contribute to an increase in inflation in the year ahead.

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At 2:07 PM Central, Dow down 824 points (1.9%), S&P 500 down 1.2%

[Bernardo de La Paz]

1. Good points, love when there are graphs. . . . . nt

[progree]

2. Thanks! 😊/nt

[Klarkashton]

3. When is a surge just noise in the data? Now.