September CPI preview: Inflation seen holding firm near 3% as tariffs complicate Fed's path

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Heeeeere’s DU’s favorite Yahoo! Finance writer. Yes, the government is still closed, but the CPI is needed for setting the COLA. Same bat time; same bat channel.

September CPI preview: Inflation seen holding firm near 3% as tariffs complicate Fed's path

Allie Canal • Senior Reporter
Thu, October 23, 2025 at 3:21 PM EDT 3 min read

September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show inflation holding stubbornly around 3%, underscoring how tariffs and service-sector stickiness continue to complicate the Federal Reserve's path toward its 2% target.

The report, set for release on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, was delayed by the ongoing government shutdown. It marks the first major piece of federal economic data since the shutdown began — now the second-longest in US history with no end in sight.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect headline CPI to rise 0.4% month over month, matching August's pace, and 3.1% year over year — the highest since May and above the 12-month average of 2.7%.

"Core" CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is expected to climb 0.3% on the month and 3.1% on the year, unchanged from August.

{snip}

[progree]

1. month over month CPI of +0.4% and core CPI of +0.3% are hot. These annualize to 4.9% and 3.7% respectively

Last edited Fri Oct 24, 2025, 09:23 AM - Edit history (1)

This would result in the 3-month average of 3.99% annualized for the CPI, and 3.94% annualized for the core CPI.

Frankly I don't give a fat one for the year-over-year since I'm interested in CURRENT and RECENT inflation, not in some average where half the data is March 2025 and before. Four of these months are Biden-era months if you include January 2025 as I do.

What's even more exasperating is when they talk about the year-over-year (aka 12 month average) being the same as it was last month (e.g. core CPI staying the same at 3.1% "on the year" ), as if core inflation isn't getting worse. Only a literal fucking idiot believes that.

A little mathematical fact: when the month-over-month number (Sept 2025 over August 2025) entering the 12 month window exceeds the month over month number leaving the 12 month window (Sept 2024 over August 2024) , then the 12 month average rises.

Au similar, the 12-month average falls when the month-over-month number entering the 12 month window is less than the month over month number leaving the 12 month window,.

I really, really do not care in the slightest, nor do I care in the least, how the latest month-over-month change compares to the month-over-month change a year ago. But somehow the media is wedded to this nonsense, and uses this as their gauge of whether inflation is rising or falling or staying the same.

Edited to add - The report is out, and everything is about 0.1 percentage point less than the estimates,
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143552691
Graphs: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143552691#post10

The KK! Brigade is having a field day with it (Krasnov Krasnov! Brigade)

[mahatmakanejeeves]

2. Everyone is waiting for Friday's big inflation report. Here's what to expect

ECONOMY
Everyone is waiting for Friday's big inflation report. Here's what to expect

PUBLISHED THU, OCT 23 2025 3:22 PM EDT
UPDATED THU, OCT 23 2025 3:22 PM EDT
Jeff Cox
@JEFFCOXCNBCCOM
@JEFF.COX.752

KEY POINTS
• The Friday release of September's consumer price index report is pretty much the only game in town this month for a Wall Street that is hungry for data, raising the chances for it to be a market-moving event.
• The report, which was supposed to be released Oct. 15, will be the last significant economic reading before the Fed's policy meeting that concludes Wednesday.
• "Because we haven't gotten any government data in the recent past, I think all of the market's focus and all of the market's attention is going to be directed onto this one report," said Troy Ludtka, senior U.S. economist at SMBC Nikko Securities.

The Friday release of September's consumer price index report is pretty much the only game in town this month for a Wall Street that is hungry for data, raising the chances for it to be a market-moving event.

While the actual numbers are expecting to land about where they've been in recent months, the dearth of official economic reports, thanks to the government shutdown, means even a slight deviation could cause an outsized impact.

"Because we haven't gotten any government data in the recent past, I think all of the market's focus and all of the market's attention is going to be directed onto this one report," said Troy Ludtka, senior U.S. economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. "This is going to be the report to end all reports."

As far as the Wall Street consensus goes, though, the CPI release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics looks to be more of the same. … Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the monthly all-items reading to increase by 0.4%, the same as a month ago, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 3.1%, or 0.2 percentage point higher than the August level. Excluding food and energy, core CPI is projected to show a 0.3% monthly increase and a 3.1% annual level, both the same as in August. The yearly rate would be the highest since January.

{snip}

[progree]

3. The report is out, and everything is about 0.1 percentage point less than the estimates

The report is out, and everything is about 0.1 percentage point less than the estimates,
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143552691
Graphs: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143552691#post10

The KK! Brigade is having a field day with it (Krasnov Krasnov! Brigade)