STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday, 2 January 2012

[Tansy_Gold]

Last edited Mon Jan 2, 2012, 11:29 AM - Edit history (1)

NYSE will be closed Monday, 2 January 2012 to observe the New Year's holiday, but I have no idea about the others, so this is a good opportunity for me to test my skills with the template. If I didn't screw up too badly, I'll do the cross post to LBN tomorrow, in preparation for back-to-business-as-usual (ugh) on Tuesday.

Wishing all of you the best possible for 2012,

Your tentative new SMW hostess,

The one and only (we certainly hope!)
Tansy Gold




[font size=3]STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday, 2 January 2012[/font]

SMW for Dec 30 2011


AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 30, 2011
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Dow Jones 12,217.56 -69.48 (-0.57%)
S&P 500 1,257.60 -5.42 (-0.43%)
Nasdaq 2,605.15 -8.59 (-0.33%)
10 Year 1.87% -0.01 (-0.53%)
30 Year 2.89% -0.01 (-0.34%)
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[font size=2]Market Conditions During Trading Hours[/font]
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[font size=2]Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold[center]

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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Market Data and News:[/font][/font]
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Economic Calendar
Marketwatch Data
Bloomberg Economic News
Yahoo Finance
Google Finance
Bank Tracker
Credit Union Tracker
Daily Job Cuts
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Economic Blogs:[/font][/font]
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The Big Picture
Financial Sense
Calculated Risk
Naked Capitalism
Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong
Bonddad
Atrios
goldmansachs666
The Stand-Up Economist
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Government Issues:[/font][/font]
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LegitGov
Open Government
Earmark Database
USA spending.gov
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Videos:[/font][/font]
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Charlie Rose talks with Roubini
Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
William Black: This Economic Disaster
Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn
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Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = [/font][font color=red]12[/font]


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[font size=3][font color=red]This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.[/font][/font]

[dixiegrrrrl]

1. Good on you for taking this on!!!!!

I suspect it is going to be a very "interesting" time in the market these coming months.

Happy New Year, Tansy.

[Tansy_Gold]

2. I feel as if I am following in very large footsteps

and will do my best to keep up the pace.

In an effort to remedy some of my educational shortcomings, I am starting my 2012 reading with John Perkins' "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man."

Interesting times, indeed.

[Hugin]

5. Great job!

This pseudo HTML is so fussy!

I only see one typo:

At the top box where the link to the previous SMW link is....

It looks like this

http://www.democraticunderground.com/11161897|SMW for Dec 30 2011

and it should look like this

SMW for Dec 30 2011

You should edit (one of the good things about DU3) that line and check the lines around it appear like this:
(Replace the angle brackets with the corresponding square brackets)

<link:http://www.democraticunderground.com/11161897|SMW for Dec 30 2011>

As I've been doing it, I've learned that replacing the thread number i.e. "11161897" instead of the whole URL is the easiest.

Other than that, You're off to a wonderful start!

[Tansy_Gold]

19. Whew! Okay, I think I got that part of it fixed!

Thanks, folks!

[Hugin]

24. Looking good!

Good choice of 'toon, too!

[kickysnana]

3. +1

[Roland99]

32. Three Cheers for Tansy!

Huzzah!

Huzzah!

Huzzah!

[hamerfan]

4. Hooray!

Thank you, TG.
I read "Confessions" a few years ago. It's a good book. If it's true (and I have no reason to doubt the book) it's frikkin' amazing what we have done to the world and it's no wonder so many hate us.
Happy New Year.
hamerfan

[DemReadingDU]

6. Thank you Tansy!

Great toon for the new year!

[TalkingDog]

7. THANKS TANSY!!!!!

yay!!!!

[xchrom]

8. thank you, miss tansy -- and happy new year!

[xchrom]

9. asia: Analysis: Asia's double-edged currency sword

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/01/02/us-asia-economy-currency-idUKTRE8010DQ20120102

(Reuters) - The roller-coaster ride for Asian currencies, which saw only the yen and yuan post significant gains for the year against the U.S. dollar, is set to continue in 2012.

While Japan actively sought to stem the yen's rise -- drawing U.S. criticism last week -- China intervened to ensure the yuan ended the year at a new high. Both currencies appreciated roughly 5 percent in 2011 against the dollar.

The opposite approaches illustrate a dilemma facing Asian policymakers as they try to smooth out foreign exchange rate volatility, which shows no sign of abating in the new year. If the currency is too strong, exports get more expensive. Too weak, and imported inflation spikes and domestic buying power fades.

Singapore and South Korea provide two examples of how inflation can stay surprisingly high, even as declining global demand curbs exports and saps growth. Both the Singapore dollar and the won slipped against the greenback in 2011.

[Ghost Dog]

28. Asia: Year of Dragon, of transition, uncertainty and change

...Despite the political and economic uncertainties facing the global economy, the Asia-Pacific (Apac) is forecast to continue to be the fastest growing region of the world economy in 2012, with growth rising to 5.3% from 4.5% in 2011...

... China - the world's second-largest economy - is expected to have a soft landing in 2012, with growth moderating to 7.8%, rather than a major slowdown that some fear.

Domestic demand is expected to underpin economic growth momentum, with latest economic data showing retail sales up 17.3% in November on a year ago, and fixed asset investment in November up 21.2% year-on-year.

The Chinese government has also embarked on a programme to build 36 million housing units for low-income households over 2011-2015, with construction of the first 10 million of these units having commenced in 2011.

Continued growth in Chinese demand for exports from the rest of Asia will help to mitigate the impact of weaker export demand from the recession-hit eurozone...

/more... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16352363

[xchrom]

29. +1

[xchrom]

10. europe: UPDATE 1-Russia 2011 oil output at new post-Soviet record high

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/01/02/russia-oil-idUKL6E8C20AA20120102

Jan 2 (Reuters) - Oil output in Russia edged up 1.2 percent to reach a new post-Soviet high of 10.27 million barrels per day (bpd) last year, as the world's top crude producer eased tax burden and launched pipeline flows to China, the Energy Ministry said on Monday.

That is a bit more than the 10.26 million bpd, expected by an analyst poll compiled a year ago, though the increase in 2011 has slackened from a 2.2 percent rise in 2010 when the country produced 10.145 mln bpd, up from 9.93 million bpd in 2009 and 9.78 million bpd in 2008.

Russia aims to maintain annual oil production at around 510 million tonnes, or just over 10 million bpd, in the next 10 years. It also sees its crude oil export flat at 250 million tonnes in 2012.

The main driver behind the increase was the new Vankor oilfield, developed by the country's top crude producer Rosneft , which reached a production target of 15 million tonnes (300,000 bpd) last year.

[xchrom]

14. Spain 2011 public deficit may even top 8 percent - econ min

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/01/02/uk-spain-economy-idUKTRE80106C20120102

(Reuters) - Spain's public deficit for 2011 may be higher than the 8 percent of GDP forecast by the new government, the economy minister said on Monday, fuelling fears the country faces a prolonged period of tight budgets and economic contraction.

Spain had originally targeted a 2011 deficit of 6 percent of gross domestic product, but the newly elected conservatives said on Friday the deficit would be 8 percent. It said it would now have to work hard to hit this year's tough deficit-reduction goals in an economy seen tipping back into recession this quarter and announced new tax rises and spending cuts.

"We'll need to see, but it's possible that we have gone over the 8 percent mark, though (we) expect that it hasn't done so by much," Economy Minister Luis de Guindos said during an interview with Cadena Ser radio, his first since taking the post after the conservatives won the November election.

Friday's announcement that the deficit would be as high as 8 percent of GDP has reignited market concerns about the financing needs of indebted euro zone countries and put downward pressure on the euro, which hit a decade low versus the yen on Monday.

[xchrom]

16. Standard Chartered sees higher risk of euro split

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/01/01/uk-europe-standardchartered-split-idUKTRE80006U20120101

(Reuters) - The head of Standard Chartered bank sees a growing likelihood of one or more countries leaving the euro zone, telling a Sunday newspaper that political leaders have yet to offer a meaningful solution to the bloc's debt crisis.

"We enter 2012 with a very difficult outlook for the euro zone ... with an increasing possibility of countries actually leaving the euro zone," Peter Sands, chief executive of the Asia-focused bank, told the Sunday Telegraph newspaper in an interview.

"Nobody should underestimate what a big deal that would be, because it would be very difficult to manage the contagion risk, even if it was only Greece. The disruption from that would really be quite significant. That will have ramifications all over the world."

In France, the European Central Bank's Christian Noyer defended the currency union, saying the euro could yet become the world's leading currency if leaders of the 17-nation bloc succeed in tightening fiscal integration.

[westerebus]

11. Thanks!

great cartoon... Happy New Year everbody...

[Ghost Dog]

12. Hey, good work Tansy.

I just got back from a trip up the mountain on the neighboring island. Early start, long drive, ferry ride, another drive, lunch... so now need to crash for a while.

But, I can send you an LBN template if you like, when I wake up?

And also... (hang on, next post...)

[Ghost Dog]

13. European Shares Higher At Mid-day

VIENNA (dpa-AFX) - European shares rose on Monday, with trading remaining light as the U.K. markets are closed for a public holiday. The U.S. markets also remain closed today for the New year's holiday.

With manufacturing data out of Germany and China boosting sentiment, the German DAX is currently rising 1.5 percent, while France's CAC 40 is gaining 0.77 percent.

The downturn in the Eurozone manufacturing sector extended into a fifth successive month in December as initially estimated, final data from Markit Economics showed today.

The Purchasing Managers' Index came in at 46.9 in December, unchanged from the flash estimate, but rising marginally from November's 28-month low of 46.4 to signal a slight easing in the overall rate of contraction.

Separately, data from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing showed China's Purchasing Managers Index, a gauge of the country's manufacturing activity, rose more than estimated to 50.3 percent in December from 49 in November, alleviating fears of a slowdown in the world's second largest economy.

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2012-01/22331161-european-shares-higher-at-mid-day-020.htm

[Ghost Dog]

15. Spain's 2011 Budget Deficit Likely Exceeded 8% Of GDP: Report

MADRID (dpa-AFX) - Spain's budget deficit might have exceeded 8 percent of gross domestic product in 2011, Finance Minister Luis de Guindos said in an interview with Cadena Ser radio on Monday. The target for last year was 6 percent of GDP.

The center-right Popular Party government, which came to power in November, aims to bring down the deficit to 4.4 percent of GDP this year. The government had announced on Friday that the country's deficit was around 8 percent in 2011.

The government led by Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy announced EUR 8.9 billion spending cuts on Friday. The austerity package includes an increase in tax on capital gains and also income tax. The government plans to freeze public sector pay for another year.

/.. http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2012-01/22331289-spain-s-2011-budget-deficit-likely-exceeded-8-of-gdp-report-020.htm

Spain's new right wing government has raised income taxes across the board, including for those with highest declared income (ha ha). Also, more tax on declared unearned income (capital gains & such). Sure, the seriously rich don't declare and so don't pay much of this, so...

[Ghost Dog]

18. German Manufacturing Shrinks Less Than Estimated

BERLIN (dpa-AFX) - German factory sector contracted less than initially estimated in December, the detailed survey results from Markit Economics showed Monday.

The purchasing managers' index or PMI posted 48.4 in December, up slightly from the flash figure of 48.1 and also above November's 47.9. However, a PMI reading below 50 indicates contraction of the sector.

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2012-01/22330090-german-manufacturing-shrinks-less-than-estimated-020.htm

French Factory Sector Contracts Less Than Expected In December

PARIS (dpa-AFX) - Activity in the French Manufacturing sector decreased slightly less than previously estimated in December, final data from a survey by Markit Economics and CDAF showed Monday.

The purchasing managers index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector came in at 48.9 in December, higher than 48.7 estimated earlier. A PMI reading below 50 indicates contraction in the sector, while one above suggests growth.

The latest reading was the highest in four months. In November, the reading was 47.3.

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2012-01/22330075-french-factory-sector-contracts-less-than-expected-in-december-020.htm

Italy Manufacturing PMI Ticks Up Unexpectedly

ROM (dpa-AFX) - The Italian purchasing managers' index, that measures the health of the country's manufacturing sector, increased unexpectedly in December, the latest survey result from Markit Economics showed Monday.

However, the PMI reading of 44.3 for December still remained well below the no-change mark of 50, suggesting a marked contraction in activity in the sector. Manufacturing activity declined throughout the past five survey periods.

In November, the PMI scored 44 and the economists were expecting the reading to fall to 43.8 in December.

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2012-01/22329967-italy-manufacturing-pmi-ticks-up-unexpectedly-020.htm

Spain's Manufacturing Sector Contracts Further

MADRID (dpa-AFX) - Spain's manufacturing sector deteriorated at a substantial pace in December due to declines in production and new business, data from Markit Economics showed Monday.

The seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers' Index posted 43.7 in December, little-changed from the reading of 43.8 in the previous month. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the sector.

New business fell for the eighth consecutive month in December, in turn leading to a reduction in production. Employment decreased again in December.

Input costs dropped for the third month driven by weaker demand for inputs. Manufacturers reduced their output prices, reflecting the fall in input prices and to stimulate demand.

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2012-01/22329726-spain-s-manufacturing-sector-contracts-further-020.htm

I see serious deflation in Spain's near future...

[xchrom]

17. U.S. consumer in the slow lane

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/01/01/uk-economy-global-weekahead-idUKTRE8000FP20120101

(Reuters) - It's up to the consumer to drive the U.S. economy and lift world growth in 2012, and the outlook is far from encouraging.

Over the past three and half years, growth in U.S. consumer spending has averaged a paltry 0.2 percent adjusted for inflation, the weakest in the post-World War II period, Morgan Stanley says.

While the employment picture is gradually brightening, wage growth is going in the opposite direction, keeping a lid on consumer behavior. Over the past year, pay for blue-collar workers adjusted for inflation fell 12 cents from the previous year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That was the steepest decline since the stagflationary days of 1980.

Pay for all workers has fallen 16 cents this year in real terms.

[xchrom]

20. Caterpillar Locks Out Canadian Union Workers, Aims to Cut Wages In Half

http://wepartypatriots.com/wp/2012/01/02/caterpillar-locks-out-canadian-union-workers/

The Wall Street Journal has the scoop on Caterpillar, Inc. locking out union workers in Ontario, and even the conservative rag admits that the company’s behavior toward the workforce comes “despite a big recovery in earnings over the past two years.”

Caterpillar Inc. said Sunday it had locked union workers out of a train locomotive plant in London, Ontario, in a sign that the world’s largest maker of construction and mining equipment is prepared to get tough with workers despite a big recovery in earnings over the past two years.

Caterpillar said in a statement that workers would be barred from the Electro-Motive Canada plant until “a ratified contract is in place” for the workers, represented by the Canadian Auto Workers union. The most recent contract expired at the end of 2011, and the two sides have been unable to come to terms.

Caterpillar’s Electro-Motive Canada plant was acquired in 2010 as part of the $820 million purchase of Electro-Motive Diesel Inc., based in LaGrange, Ill.

[Hotler]

22. Awhile back I went the Caterpillar website looking for work and

they had welding and assembly jobs for $10.00 an hr. with NO benefits. Cheap fucking cock suckers. I was making $10.00 bucks an houirs welding in 1974.

[xchrom]

23. it infuriates me -- my dad worked as a tool desigener for 45 years for them.

i witnessed the war on unions in peoria as it was created by caterpillar.

and because caterpillar had successfully managed to soak up so much of the labor pool -- there weren't a lot of other places workers could go and 'vote' w/ their feet so to speak.

the lock-outs were awful -- w/ families walking away from their homes to find work else where.

[Ghost Dog]

25. Companies should have a duty to seek to benefit not only shareholders but also

their workers, and society at large.



Record U.S. Exports Led by Caterpillar Seen in World Markets
Dec 5, 2011 4:47 PM GMT+0000

U.S. exports, a driver of expansion in the world’s largest economy, will grow next year even as a sovereign-debt crisis pushes Europe into recession.

The euro area’s share of overseas sales for American-made goods has dwindled to 13 percent from 19 percent at the peak in the early 1990s, according to Joseph Carson of AllianceBernstein LP. A trade shock that cuts all euro-zone imports by 10 percent in the next 12 months would trim U.S. economic output by only 0.2 percent, UBS AG estimates.

Total U.S. exports -- responsible for almost half of growth since the 18-month recession ended in June 2009 -- reached a record $180.4 billion in September, even as Europe’s woes were escalating. America’s push into faster-growing emerging markets such as China is helping to sustain demand for goods from Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) machinery to Apple Inc. (AAPL) iPhones.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-05/record-u-s-exports-led-by-caterpillar-in-developing-markets-seen-for-2012.html

Caterpillar's dependence on industrial and mining customers make it more susceptible to economic cycles than Deere, the biggest farm equipment maker. Management forecast sales growth of as much as 20 percent next year, while the global economy is expected to expand 2.55 percent, making investors skeptical

/... http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/12/13/bloomberg_articlesLW5J271A74E9.DTL&ao=all#ixzz1iKbQYvYP

[xchrom]

26. +1

[Hotler]

21. Thank you Tansy. I watched 3-hrs. of Chris hedges yesterday on CSPAN.

If you folks didn't see it it is a must see. Go to the CSPAN website. The man has no kind words for Goldman Sachs and Lloyd Blankfein. One thing that kept popping up in the interview was that we have to take to streets and protest and be willing to be arrested. I have been wondering why the people of Du the largest progressive website on the innertubes has failed to organize protest or even get out from behind the keyboards and take to the streets. Those over in Jones town bitch and moan but don't have it in them to fight. In fact since the place became DU3 I don't even recognize the place any more. Who are those people?????

[Ghost Dog]

27. I've been out and about talking, listening to people around here. "Hay que pegar fuego",

"We need to set this on fire" (take it euphemistically or literally) I've heard repeatedly, amongst sage nodding heads.

[DemReadingDU]

30. People are too comfortable

When their comforts are gone, and people wake up and realize their comforts are not coming back, they will react.

Comforts could be income, savings, unemployment compensation, food stamps, food pantries, etc.

[Roland99]

31. HAPPY New Year (to the markets at least)

DJIA INDEX 12,331.00 +181.00
S&P 500 1,271.20 +18.60
NASDAQ 100 2,309.50 +35.00