New cars vs. old cars -- the 'old paint' economic indicator

[bemildred]

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But then there's the "old paint" index, and the news there isn't so rosy.

You might have a different name for this economic indicator, such as "the clunker," or "the jalopy" or even "this old thing? I’ve had it forever."

Whatever. The bottom line is, the average age of all the vehicles on America's roads is at a record high: 10.8 years. For just cars, it's 11.1 years.

They're not necessarily scientific, but those are telling numbers.

http://opinion.latimes.com/opinionla/2012/01/us-economy-improving-age-of-cars-on-the-road-at-all-time-high.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+OpinionLa+%28L.A.+Times+-+Opinion+Blog%29

FWIW, both my cars are > 10 years old and 120K miles ...

[Warpy]

1. Yeah, that new car every 3-4 years for the middle class

is only a fading dream. Now the family bus is repaired and patched together as long as it will roll because it's cheaper to fix the damned thing than go out and get a new one, especially since getting a new one means astronomical insurance payments on top of car payments for the first five years these days.

My last vehicle was old enough to vote when I got rid of it. I actually traded it in and got a few bucks for it, too. Usually, my cars are scrapped out when I'm finally done with them.

So welcome to my world, America, the land of third world transportation, held together with duck tape, wire, and Bondo.

[Jack Sprat]

2. That may be so Warpy, but

I've recently been shopping some used cars online and many are now over-priced to the point that buying a new one makes better sense. Used cars were once the better buy, but not as much these days as before. Too many being sold at retail prices, especially from the dealers where most of the stock is available.

[A HERETIC I AM]

4. There's a reason for that.

"I've recently been shopping some used cars online and many are now over-priced to the point that buying a new one makes better sense. "

The "Cash For Clunkers" program from a while back took one million cars out of the used car market. THAT'S why used car prices are so high. Supply is low.

[Jack Sprat]

5. That makes sense.

I knew something was up besides the prices.

[Warpy]

7. you get a break on the interest with a new car

that you don't get with a used car and that has to be factored in, too. Unfortunately, the insurance premiums generally eat that up, making it a wash.

There are still some used car deals out there, momvans and SUVs that people have unloaded in favor of more efficient commuter cars, for instance. If you don't drive a hell of a lot, they can be a good deal.

My real point is that people are keeping the cars for ten years because they had to pay high payments and insurance rates for the first five and the second five is when they're able to drive it most economically.

They used to trade it in. Now that's just not economically feasible.

[eridani]

3. I think part of that is that cars have gotten more reliable over the years

They just last longer.

[A HERETIC I AM]

6. Which is very, VERY good news for me...

as I drive one of these;



And I deliver strictly new cars these days, so the older the national fleet gets, the more new car sales go up.

There is a wave of new car sales coming, BTW. A B I G one.

New car sales in the US averaged between 12 and 16 million before the downturn. For the last few years it has been around 10 million.

Cars break. They crash. They just get old and stop running. And young people buy their first car. There is attrition in the fleet and people have been putting off buying a new car for quite a while now.

But the wave is coming. And it means I get to make a living.

[CanonRay]

8. Cars are built much better

they used to be pieces of crap at 50K miles,so you had to replace them. This is one area where we've really improved, although I still love the old styling, inside, they were junk.

[FarCenter]

9. The last couple that I bought in the '90s have gone over 200K miles

Cars really should last 25 years or 250,000 miles.

On the other hand, I think that the age statistics are skewed by some fairly elderly vehicles that have plates but are rarely driven.