STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Thursday, 22 August 2013

[Tansy_Gold]

[font size=3]STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday, 22 August 2013[font color=black][/font]

SMW for 21 August 2013

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON 21 August 2013
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Dow Jones 14,897.55 -105.44 (-0.70%)
S&P 500 1,642.80 -9.55 (-0.58%)
Nasdaq 3,599.79 -13.80 (-0.38%)


[font color=green]10 Year 2.49% -0.03 (-1.19%)
30 Year 3.58% -0.03 (-0.83%)[font color=black]


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[font size=2]Market Conditions During Trading Hours[/font]
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[font size=2]Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold[center]

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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Market Data and News:[/font][/font]
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Economic Calendar
Marketwatch Data
Bloomberg Economic News
Yahoo Finance
Google Finance
Bank Tracker
Credit Union Tracker
Daily Job Cuts
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Economic Blogs:[/font][/font]
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The Big Picture
Financial Sense
Calculated Risk
Naked Capitalism
Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong
Bonddad
Atrios
goldmansachs666
The Stand-Up Economist
The Automatic Earth
Wall Street on Parade
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Essential Reading:[/font][/font]
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Matt Taibi: Secret and Lies of the Bailout


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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Government Issues:[/font][/font]
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LegitGov
Open Government
Earmark Database
USA spending.gov
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Videos:[/font][/font]
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Charlie Rose talks with Roubini
Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
William Black: This Economic Disaster
Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn
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[font color=red]Partial List of Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 [/font][font color=red]
2/2/12 David Higgs and Salmaan Siddiqui, Credit Suisse, plead guilty to conspiracy involving valuation of MBS
3/6/12 Allen Stanford, former Caribbean billionaire and general schmuck, convicted on 13 of 14 counts in $2.2B Ponzi scheme, faces 20+ years in prison
6/4/12 Matthew Kluger, lawyer, sentenced to 12 years in prison, along with co-conspirator stock trader Garrett Bauer (9 years) and co-conspirator Kenneth Robinson (not yet sentenced) for 17 year insider trading scheme.
6/14/12 Allen Stanford sentenced to 110 years without parole.
6/15/12 Rajat Gupta, former Goldman Sachs director, found guilty of insider trading. Could face a decade in prison when sentenced later this year.
6/22/12 Timothy S. Durham, 49, former CEO of Fair Financial Company, convicted of one count conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, 10 counts of wire fraud, and one count of securities fraud.
6/22/12 James F. Cochran, 56, former chairman of the board of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and six counts of wire fraud.
6/22/12 Rick D. Snow, 48, former CFO of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and three counts of wire fraud.
7/13/12 Russell Wassendorf Sr., CEO of collapsed brokerage firm Peregrine Financial Group Inc. arrested and charged with lying to regulators after admitting to authorities he embezzled "millions of dollars" and forged bank statements for "nearly twenty years."
8/22/12 Doug Whitman, Whitman Capital LLC hedge fund founder, convicted of insider trading following a trial in which he spent more than two days on the stand telling jurors he was innocent
10/26/12 UPDATE: Former Goldman Sachs director Rajat Gupta sentenced to two years in federal prison. He will, of course, appeal. . .
11/20/12 Hedge fund manager Matthew Martoma charged with insider trading at SAC Capital Advisors, and prosecutors are looking at Martoma's boss, Steven Cohen, for possible involvement.
02/14/13 Gilbert Lopez, former chief accounting officer of Stanford Financial Group, and former controller Mark Kuhrt sentenced to 20 yrs in prison for their roles in Allen Sanford's $7.2 billion Ponzi scheme.
03/29/13 Michael Sternberg, portfolio mgr at SAC Capital, arrested in NYC, charged with conspiracy and securities fraud. Pled not guilty and freed on $3m bail.
04/04/13 Matthew Marshall Taylor,fmr Goldman Sachs trader arrested, charged by CFTC w/defrauding his employer on $8BN futures bet "by intentionally concealing the true huge size, as well as the risk and potential profits or losses associated."
04/04/13 Matthew Taylor admits guilt, makes plea bargain. Sentencing set for 26 June; faces up to 20 years in prison but will likely only see 3-4 years. Says, "I am truly sorry."
04/11/13 Ex-KPMG LLP partner Scott London charged by federal prosecutors w/passing inside tips to a friend in exchange for cash, jewelry, and concert tickets; expected to plead guilty in May.
08/01/13 Fabrice Tourré convicted on six counts of security fraud, including "aiding and abetting" his former employer, Goldman Sachs
08/14/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout charged with wire fraud, falsifying records, and conspiracy in connection with JP Morgan's "London Whale" trade.









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[font size=3][font color=red]This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.[/font][/font][/font color=red][font color=black]

[jtuck004]

1. What a great place, though. Realize that over half the country could live in that third place

without even attending college.

And they are.

[Tansy_Gold]

2. I know.

I know.

[xchrom]

3. Eurozone growth hits 26-month high, says PMI survey

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23792194

Eurozone business activity grew at its fastest pace for 26 months in August, according to a closely-watched survey.

The Markit composite purchasing managers' index - which includes manufacturing and services - rose to 51.7 points, from 50.5 in July.

A number higher than 50 indicates growth.

The news boosted European stock markets, which rose in early trading, despite falls in Asia amid fears the US may scale back its stimulus programme.

[xchrom]

4. Asia's emerging markets and currencies hurt by Fed minutes

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23790750

Shares and currencies in emerging Asian economies were hit by fears the US may scale back its bond-buying programme.

Stocks in Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines fell, with the Philippine Stock Exchange down by more than 6%.

India's rupee hit a new all-time low, while the Indonesia rupiah fell to its lowest level since 2009.

The programme has been used by the US Fed to boost liquidity in the market, a part of which has flowed into Asia, lifting assets price in recent years.

[Demeter]

5. Report: US household income below end-of-recession

http://apnews.excite.com/article/20130821/DA8AJ3I82.html

The average American household is earning less than when the Great Recession ended four years ago, according to a report released Wednesday.

U.S. median household income, once adjusted for inflation, has fallen 4.4 percent in that time, according to the report from Sentier Research. The report is based on an analysis of Census Bureau data.

The median, or midpoint, income in June 2013 was $52,098. That's down from $54,478 in June 2009, when the recession officially ended. And it's below the $55,480 that the median household took in when the recession began in December 2007.

The report says nearly every group is worse off than four years ago, except for those 65 to 74. Some groups have experienced larger-than-average declines, including blacks, young and upper-middle-aged people and the unemployed.

[xchrom]

11. Household Incomes: The Sad Truth About The US Economic Recovery Four Years Later

http://www.businessinsider.com/household-incomes-falling-since-recovery-began-2013-8

***SNIP

Based on new estimates derived from the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS), real median annual household income, while recovering somewhat from the low-point reached in August 2011, has fallen by 4.4 percent since the "economic recovery" began in June 2009. Adding this post-recession decline to the 1.8-percent drop that occurred during the recession leaves median annual household income now 6.1 percent below the December 2007 level.

Before we dig into the new findings, let's have a quick look at an overlay of nominal and real (inflation adjusted) median household incomes since the turn of the century based on Sentier Research's monthly reports of the real, seasonally adjusted data:
?maxX=640

Read more: http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/commentaries/Real-Incomes-Four-Years-After-the-Great-Recession.php#ixzz2chOOCd61

[Demeter]

6. Government Sides with the Big Banks Every Time

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/08/detroit-government-chooses-big-banks-over-the-american-people-once-again.html

Ellen Brown noted recently that Detroit is yet another example of the government choosing big banks over the American people:

The argument for the super-priority of derivative claims [background] is that nonpayment on these bets represents a “systemic risk” to the financial scheme. Derivative bets are cross-collateralized and are so inextricably entwined in a $600-plus trillion house of cards that the whole financial scheme could go down if the betting scheme were to collapse. Instead of banning or regulating this very risky casino, Congress has been persuaded by the masterminds of Wall Street that it needs to be preserved at all costs.

The same tortured logic has been used to justify the fact that the federal government deigned to bail out Wall Street but not Detroit. Supposedly, the mega-banks pose a systemic risk and Detroit doesn’t. On July 29th, former Obama administration economist Jared Bernstein pursued this line of reasoning on his blog, writing:

T]he correct motivation for federal bailouts — meaning some combination of managing a bankruptcy, paying off creditors (though often with a haircut), or providing liquidity in cases where that’s the issue as opposed to insolvency – is systemic risk. The failure of large, major banks, two out of the big three auto companies, the secondary market for housing – all of these pose unacceptably large risks to global financial markets, and thus the global economy, to a major industry, including its upstream and downstream suppliers, and to the national housing sector.

Because a) there’s not much of a case that Detroit is systemically connected in those ways, and b) Chapter 9 of the bankruptcy code appears to provide an adequate way for it to deal with its insolvency, I don’t think anything like a large scale bailout is forthcoming.

The New York Times Editorial Board writes:

What we do have a problem with is shared sacrifice that does not seem to apply to the big banks that abetted Detroit’s descent into bankruptcy.

Last month, just days before its bankruptcy filing, Detroit reached its first settlement with creditors. The settlement was with UBS and Bank of America, and though the precise terms will not be nailed down until the bankruptcy judge weighs in, Detroit is set to pay an estimated $250 million to terminate a soured derivatives transaction from 2005.

The derivatives, known as interest-rate swaps, were supposed to protect Detroit from rising interest payments on a chunk of its variable rate debt. The banks would pay Detroit if interest rates rose, and Detroit would pay the banks if rates fell. By 2009, both interest rates and the city’s credit rating were falling, forcing Detroit to pay the banks some $50 million a year and to pledge roughly $11 million a month in casino-tax revenue as additional collateral. [Background on how the big banks suckered Detroit]

***

But the haircut doesn’t mean that the banks will suffer. They have already made money on the swaps; the true extent of any discount will not be known until the deal is finalized.

This much is clear:

■ The banks’ 25 percent hit is nothing compared with the city’s suggested 90 percent cut to the pensions’ unfunded liability — which will result in benefit cuts that would be disastrous in both human and political terms and that the State of Michigan must prevent from happening.

■ Municipal officials are prey for Wall Street. The Dodd-Frank financial reform law called on regulators to establish “enhanced protection” for municipalities and other clients in their dealings with Wall Street, but the Securities and Exchange Commission has not yet completed rules, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s rules are so weak as to virtually invite the banks to exploit municipalities.

■ The special treatment banks receive when debtors are in or near bankruptcy is unfair and economically destabilizing. Detroit’s agreement with the two banks requires court approval, but, in general, swap deals by banks are not subject to the constraints that normally apply in bankruptcy cases; in effect, the banks are paid first, even before other secured creditors and certainly before pensioners. That privilege, dating to the heyday of derivatives deregulation in the 1990s and 2000s, is destabilizing because the assurance of repayment fosters recklessness.

Detroit’s problems are a reminder of broader challenges, identified but still unmet: protecting pensions; protecting municipalities from Wall Street; and, at long last, revoking the obscene privileges of banks that allow them to prosper on the failings of others.

Reuters adds some details:

The city is paying its swap counterparties a fixed interest rate of approximately 6 percent and receiving payments back of approximately 0.57 percent (current three month Libor ~0.27 percent + 0.30 percent = 0.57 percent for the floating rate). The city’s swap counterparties cannot take haircuts if bankruptcy is filed, according to a creditor attorney that I spoke to. In fact, they move to the head of the creditor line. The same part of the bankruptcy code that was used in the Lehman bankruptcy (Chapter 11) applies to Detroit (Chapter 9). Swaps are settled (netted and paid) when the entity enters the bankruptcy process. From the Stanford Law Review:

Under the Bankruptcy Code, creditors of a failed entity are stayed or prohibited from seizing that entity’s assets. Since 1978, however, Congress has exempted derivatives counterparties from the automatic stay and permitted the termination of the derivatives contracts.

Clearly Detroit’s derivative counterparties will siphon precious cash away from the insolvent city if it were to enter bankruptcy. This cash payment to swap counterparties could likely be in the $400 million range.

The bigger pictures is that the government always chooses the big banks over the little guy:

All of the top independent economists and financial experts (and many bankers) say that we’ve got to break up the big banks to save the economy.

Instead, the government has thrown trillions at the big banks to artificially make them appear profitable.

The bailouts are continuing non-stop … to this very day ...

Indeed, the government chose the big banks over Main Street, the average American … or the economy as a whole. ...

As such, the government has sucked trillions out of the real economy by pushing policies which destroy jobs (sorry … Obama doesn’t care), redistributed wealth upwards from the broad economy to a handful of the very richest (which trashes the economy .. and Obama is even worse than Bush), and destroyed savers and Main Street.

In other words, we have thrown many trillions of dollars at the banks, and then sucked trillions more out of the real economy.

As we noted recently:

The central banks’ central bank – the Bank for International Settlements- warned in 2008 that bailouts of the big banks would create sovereign debt crises … which could bankrupt nations.

That is exactly what has happened.

The big banks went bust, and so did the debtors. But the government chose to save the big banks instead of the little guy, thus allowing the banks to continue to try to wring every penny of debt out of debtors.

Treasury Secretary Paulson shoved bailouts down Congress’ throat by threatening martial law if the bailouts weren’t passed. And the bailouts are now perpetual.

Moreover:

The bailout money is just going to line the pockets of the wealthy, instead of helping to stabilize the economy or even the companies receiving the bailouts:

Bailout money is being used to subsidize companies run by horrible business men, allowing the bankers to receive fat bonuses, to redecorate their offices, and to buy gold toilets and prostitutes

A lot of the bailout money is going to the failing companies’ shareholders

Indeed, a leading progressive economist says that the true purpose of the bank rescue plans is “a massive redistribution of wealth to the bank shareholders and their top executives”

The Treasury Department encouraged banks to use the bailout money to buy their competitors, and pushed through an amendment to the tax laws which rewards mergers in the banking industry (this has caused a lot of companies to bite off more than they can chew, destabilizing the acquiring companies)

And as the New York Times notes, “Tens of billions of bailout dollars have merely passed through A.I.G. to its derivatives trading partners”.

***

In other words, through a little game-playing by the Fed, taxpayer money is going straight into the pockets of investors in AIG’s credit default swaps and is not even really stabilizing AIG.

Moreover, a large percentage of the bailouts went to foreign banks ... And so did a huge portion of the money from quantitative easing. Indeed, the Fed bailed out Gaddafi’s Bank of Libya, hedge fund billionaires, and big companies, but turned its back on the little guy.

AND THERE'S STILL MORE...LEADING TO THE OBVIOUS CONCLUSION:

Given the above – and the fact that we no longer prosecute the big white collar criminals – we no longer have a free market economy … we have fascism, communist style socialism, kleptocracy, oligarchy or banana republic style corruption. As such, the machinery of capitalism – which could generate enough prosperity to dig us out of this budget deficit – has been broken.

[Hotler]

19. .............

[Hotler]

21. Did Paulson have the power to declare Martial Law??????

Treasury Secretary Paulson shoved bailouts down Congress’ throat by threatening martial law if the bailouts weren’t passed. And the bailouts are now perpetual. Let me add that Paulson should be rotting in prison. If I had my way he would be hanging from a street light.

[Demeter]

24. he had the power to destroy the country

and he succeeded, IMO

[Demeter]

7. Feds Threaten To Arrest Lavabit Founder For Shutting Down His Service

http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20130816/14533924213/feds-threaten-to-arrest-lavabit-founder-shutting-down-his-service.shtml

from the either-you-help-us-spy-on-people-or-you're-a-criminal dept

The saga of Lavabit founder Ladar Levison is getting even more ridiculous, as he explains that the government has threatened him with criminal charges for his decision to shut down the business, rather than agree to some mysterious court order. The feds are apparently arguing that the act of shutting down the business, itself, was a violation of the order:

... a source familiar with the matter told NBC News that James Trump, a senior litigation counsel in the U.S. attorney’s office in Alexandria, Va., sent an email to Levison's lawyer last Thursday – the day Lavabit was shuttered -- stating that Levison may have "violated the court order," a statement that was interpreted as a possible threat to charge Levison with contempt of court.

That same article suggests that the decision to shut down Lavabit was over something much bigger than just looking at one individual's information -- since it appears that Lavabit has cooperated in the past on such cases. Instead, the suggestion now is that the government was seeking a tap on all accounts:

Levison stressed that he has complied with "upwards of two dozen court orders" for information in the past that were targeted at "specific users" and that "I never had a problem with that." But without disclosing details, he suggested that the order he received more recently was markedly different, requiring him to cooperate in broadly based surveillance that would scoop up information about all the users of his service. He likened the demands to a requirement to install a tap on his telephone.

It sounds like the feds were asking for a full on backdoor on the system, not unlike some previous reports of ISPs who have received surprise visits from the NSA.

[DemReadingDU]

8. UPS cuts insurance to 15,000 spouses, blames Obamacare

8/21/13 UPS cuts insurance to 15,000 spouses, blames Obamacare

United Parcel Service is planning to drop 15,000 workers' spouses from its health insurance plan, citing higher costs due to Obamacare.

In an undated memo to employees, UPS (UPS, Fortune 500) said it will discontinue coverage for all working spouses who are eligible for insurance with their own employer. That applies to about 15,000 spouses covered by UPS today.

The internal document was obtained by Kaiser Health News. UPS told the nonprofit news agency that the policy applies only to non-union U.S. workers. It hasn't responded to questions from CNNMoney.

In the memo, UPS said it's willing to take care of its own, but it won't bear a burden that other companies can take on. "We believe your spouse should be covered by their own employer -- just as UPS has a responsibility to offer coverage to you, our employee," the memo states.

Spouses of UPS employees who don't work -- or who are not offered coverage by their own employer -- will get to stay on the UPS plan.

more...
http://money.cnn.com/2013/08/21/news/companies/ups-obamacare/

[xchrom]

9. From China to euro zone, world economy shows evidence of rebound

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/08/22/uk-economy-global-idUKBRE97L0EM20130822

(Reuters) - Evidence is growing that the world economy is on the mend. Business surveys on Thursday showed better-than-expected growth in the euro zone and a rebound in China's vast manufacturing sector.

Figures later in the day are similarly expected to confirm a continued strengthening of U.S. factory output, probably clearing the way for the Federal Reserve to start ending its immense bond purchase programme next month.

Markets are struggling to adjust to the idea that the Fed will ease off its stimulus programme and pare back the $85 billion (£54.59 billion) of bonds it has been snapping up every month. But at its most basic level, the move would signal that the world's largest economy is firmly on the road to recovery.

"Tapering would be a sign that the Fed believes the U.S. economy is gaining some traction. It signals that the recovery is more solid," said Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec.

[Demeter]

25. Is there a raspberry smilie?

Last edited Thu Aug 22, 2013, 02:13 PM - Edit history (1)

If there isn't, there ought to be!

[xchrom]

10. Upbeat manufacturing poll suggests China may yet avert debt disaster

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/08/22/uk-china-economy-flashpmi-idUKBRE97L0DL20130822

(Reuters) - Efforts by China to halt a slide in economic growth and fend off a potential credit crisis may be paying off, judging from the latest results of a closely watched survey of the country's manufacturers.

The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose in August to 50.1, its highest in four months, as new orders rebounded. That was an encouraging turnaround from July's 47.7 reading, the weakest in 11 months. Any number over 50 means activity is expanding; below 50 represents a contraction.

Economists cheered the survey result as evidence that government efforts to arrest a rapid slowdown were starting to work, while cautioning that a strong rebound still appeared unlikely.

Beijing has launched a series of targeted measures recently to support the economy, including scrapping taxes for small firms, offering more help for ailing exporters and accelerating investment in urban infrastructure and railways.

[xchrom]

12. UK Banks To Pay Out 1.3 Billion In Massive Credit Card Compensation

http://www.businessinsider.com/uk-banks-to-pay-out-13-billion-in-massive-credit-card-compensation-2013-8

Britain's high street banks are embroiled in a major new scandal after it was announced that seven million people who were mis-sold credit card and identity protection policies will share up to £1.3bn in compensation.
Thirteen banks and credit card companies, including Barclays, HSBC and Royal Bank of Scotland, have agreed to offer redress for the widely mis-sold policies, with payouts – likely to average £185 per person – likely in spring 2014.

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) said the firms, together with card insurer CPP, had agreed to a compensation package which will see millions of letters being mailed out to affected customers from 29 August onwards.

The fiasco is the latest in a line of scandals and regulatory clampdowns to hit the banking sector. Earlier this month it was estimated that the cost to banks of compensating customers mis-sold payment protection insurance (PPI) had reached £18.4bn, while the Libor rate-rigging scandal, the mis-selling of other products such as interest rate swaps and the outcry over bankers' bonuses have also shaken the sector and led to calls for reforms.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/uk-banks-to-pay-out-13-billion-in-massive-credit-card-compensation-2013-8#ixzz2chPgzzRu

[xchrom]

13. France Calls For Force If Chemical Weapons Use Confirmed In Syria

http://www.businessinsider.com/france-calls-for-force-in-syria-2013-8

France is seeking a reaction with "force" if a massacre in Syria involving chemical weapons is confirmed, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said Thursday, although he ruled out the use of ground troops.
"If it is proven, France's position is that there must be a reaction, a reaction that could take the form of a reaction with force," Fabius told BFM-TV.

"There are possibilities for responding," he said without elaborating.

The main Syrian opposition group claims that as many as 1,300 people were killed in a chemical weapons attack Wednesday on rebel areas near Damascus.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/france-calls-for-force-in-syria-2013-8#ixzz2chWscOTO

[Demeter]

26. After you, Gaston!

[xchrom]

14. Markets Are Flying Higher

http://www.businessinsider.com/european-markets-are-flying-higher-2013-8

France's flash PMI reading surprised to the downside this morning, but Germany's came in better than expected, as did figures for the eurozone as a whole, and markets across Europe are flying higher.

The Spanish IBEX 35 and Italian FTSE MIB are leading the way, currently up 1.8%, while the German DAX is up 1.1%, the French CAC 40 is 1.0% higher, and the London FTSE is up 0.8%.

In the United States, S&P 500 futures are rallying, currently up 0.4%.

Meanwhile, the bloodletting in the U.S. Treasury market continues following the release of the minutes yesterday from the Federal Reserve's July FOMC meeting. Early this morning, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note hit a fresh new multi-year high of 2.94% before retracing a bit to current levels around 2.92%.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/european-markets-are-flying-higher-2013-8#ixzz2chXPZ3Ar

[xchrom]

15. Indonesian Market Gets Smacked Again — Emerging Market Currencies Falling Out Of Bed

http://www.businessinsider.com/indonesian-market-gets-smacked-again--emerging-market-currencies-falling-out-of-bed-2013-8

The biggest stories this week: Ugliness in emerging market currencies and the crash in Indonesia.

Let's start with Indonesia, where the Jakarta market is over over 2.1%.

It had tanked about 5% both Monday and Tuesday, before rallying back just slightly yesterday. Now it's diving again. It's experiencing the crumbling current account deficit (bad trade, investment money fleeing the scene) that's going on in a lot of emerging markets right now, and both its equity and currency are feeling the pain.

Turning to the currency world, we're seeing the same stories we've seen all week for emerging market currencies.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/indonesian-market-gets-smacked-again--emerging-market-currencies-falling-out-of-bed-2013-8#ixzz2chY4kIPW

[mahatmakanejeeves]

16. ETA News Release: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report (08/22/2013)

ETA News Release: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report (08/22/2013)

Source: Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration

Read More: http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20131703.htm

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending August 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 336,000, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 323,000. The 4-week moving average was 330,500, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average of 332,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.3 percent for the week ending August 10, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending August 10 was 2,999,000, an increase of 29,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 2,970,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,985,750, a decrease of 1,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 2,986,750.

UNADJUSTED DATA

....

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.2 percent during the week ending August 10, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 2,876,094, an increase of 16,087 from the preceding week's revised level of 2,860,007. A year earlier, the rate was 2.5 percent and the volume was 3,167,174.
....

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending August 10 were in South Carolina (+907), New York (+762), Oregon (+685), Mississippi (+419), and Indiana (+400), while the largest decreases were in California (-4,105), Ohio (-1,554), Texas (-894), Florida (-881), and Georgia (-712).

== == == ==

Good morning, Freepers and DUers alike. I ask you to put aside your differences long enough to read this post. Following that, you can engage in your usual donnybrook.

I have been posting the number every week for at least a year. I seriously do not care if the week's data make Obama look good. They are just numbers, and I post them without regard to the consequences. I welcome people from Free Republic to examine the numbers as well. They paid for the work just as much as members of DU did, so I invite them to come on over and have a look. "The more the merrier" is the way I look at it.

I do not work at the ETA, and I do not know anyone working in that agency. I'm sure I can safely assume that the numbers are gathered and analyzed by career civil servant economists who do their work on a nonpartisan basis. Numbers are numbers, and let the chips fall where they may. If you feel that these economists are falling down on the job, drop them a line or give them a call. They work for you, not for any politician or political party.

The word "initial" is important. The report does not count all claims, just the new ones filed this week.

Note: The seasonal adjustment factors used for the UI Weekly Claims data from 2007 forward, along with the resulting seasonally adjusted values for initial claims and continuing claims, have been revised. These revised historical values, as well as the seasonal adjustment factors that will be used through calendar year 2012, can be accessed at the bottom of the following link: http://www.oui.doleta.gov/press/2012/032912.asp

[xchrom]

17. Northeast Passage: Russia Moves to Boost Arctic Shipping

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/russia-moves-to-promote-northeast-passage-through-arctic-ocean-a-917824.html

The earth has rarely been as warm as it is today -- and it has never been this small. In the distant past, traveling from Hamburg to Shanghai by ship meant sailing around Africa, a journey of at least 28,000 kilometers (17,400 miles). A short cut became available in 1869, with the opening of the Suez Canal, an event so epochal that Giuseppe Verdi was asked to compose a hymn for the celebration. After that, the Hamburg-Shanghai route measured only about 20,000 kilometers.

Now another hymn could be needed, albeit a Russian one. Global warming has led to the rapid melting of Arctic sea ice. Where the thick ice pack stretched off the Siberian coast in August only a few years ago, there is nothing but the gray and cold Arctic Ocean today.

The ice cap off Siberia now almost completely disappears in the summer months. Although there are still isolated floes, the Arctic Ocean is navigable. Coastal ice vanished for the first time in the summer of 2005, and it has been disappearing every summer since 2007. There was never as little Arctic ice as in mid-September 2012, and the ice has never melted as quickly as it did in the first half of July 2013, with an area twice the size of Bavaria disappearing every day.

The Barents Sea is now open, as is the Kara Sea, and even the Laptev Sea and the Chukchi Sea are currently navigable without an icebreaker escort (see map). The ice cap only remains intact farther to the north.

[xchrom]

18. Dangerous Friends: Power Struggle Splits Turkish Ruling Party

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/power-struggle-splits-erdogan-ruling-akp-party-in-turkey-a-917823.html

The many hundreds of thousands of demonstrators who took to the streets in Istanbul did not succeed in toppling their country's prime minister or in continuing to occupy Gezi Park on the city's Taksim Square. The protests against the government of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, sparked in late May by plans to level Gezi Park, have subsided. Yet the uprising's effects may last well beyond this summer.

Members and supporters of Erdogan's conservative-Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP) have long refrained from expressing any criticism. Now, though, AKP followers are turning against the prime minister, with Erdogan's competitors within the party using the post-Gezi unrest as an opportunity to distance themselves from him.

In the English-language edition of the pro-government daily newspaper Zaman, columnist Yavuz Baydar recently compared Turkey under Erdogan to the United States during the McCarthy era. The conservative-Islamist Journalists and Writers Foundation (GYV) likewise warns that these current developments in Turkey overshadow any attempts at further democratization.

Most striking about this criticism are its sources -- both Zaman and the GYV belong to the movement surrounding Turkish preacher Fethullah Gülen, who is believed to have enormous influence within the government.

[xchrom]

20. buying congress people isn't paying off for big business

http://www.nationofchange.org/buying-congress-people-isn-t-paying-big-business-1377087311

t turns out that Republican obstructionism is quite costly for big business. A new report from the Huffington Post found that the U.S. Chamber of Commerce isn’t getting much return for the $69.5 million dollars they invested in Republican candidates in the last two elections.

In fact, Republicans have blocked many of the measures that the Chamber supports, and supported many efforts that the Chamber opposed.

According to Huffington, the Chamber of Congress is urging Congress to pass comprehensive immigration reform and provide funding for infrastructure improvements, but Republicans refuse to allow either effort to move forward.

The Chamber also pushed lawmakers to oppose Obamacare, the Dodd-Frank Act, and the President’s nominees for the NLRB and the CFPB, yet Republicans have gone along with nominations, and stand little chance of repealing healthcare or Wall Street reform. The Chamber of Commerce just isn’t getting much for their money.

Hard-right conservative lawmakers aren’t only creating problems for their party, and for our nation – they are failing to do the bidding of their corporate masters. In the past two election cycles, the U.S. Chamber of Congress helped get 22 House Republicans and 10 Senate Republicans elected. However, 19 of those House members and six of those Senators aren’t living up to the Chamber’s expectations. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has not announced yet how much they will be spending in the 2014 election, but many Republicans may find themselves off of the big business donation list. Hard-right lawmakers still have Big Oil and the Koch Brothers to fall back on, but who knows, maybe Republicans will manage to tick off those campaign contributors as well.

[Fuddnik]

22. When you invest in nuts.....

That's just what you get......nuts.

[Demeter]

27. I'm having Schaudenfreude for lunch!

[Demeter]

28. What's that Definition of an Honest Politician?

An honest politician is one who, when he is bought, will stay bought.

Simon Cameron, US financier & politician (1799 - 1889).

[jtuck004]

23. Abracadabra, You're a Part-Timer

How Corporate America Used the Great Recession to Turn Good Jobs Into Bad Ones

Watch closely: I’m about to demystify the sleight-of-hand by which good jobs were transformed into bad jobs, full-time workers with benefits into freelancers with nothing, during the dark days of the Great Recession.

First, be aware of what a weird economic downturn and recovery this has been. From the end of an “average” American recession, it ordinarily takes slightly less than a year to reach or surpass the previous employment peak. But in June 2013 -- four full years after the official end of the Great Recession -- we had recovered only 6.6 million jobs, or just three-quarters of the 8.7 million jobs we lost.
...
In other words, under the shadow of the recession, the company hadn’t sent jobs offshore or eliminated them. It had simply replaced decently paying full-time employment, including benefits, with low-wage, contingent employment without benefits. It had, that is, pulled the old switcheroo, turning good jobs into bad ones on premises.
...

More here

Time to get busy...

[Demeter]

29. Eric Holder 'Too Big To Jail' Claim Draws 300,000 Signatures Demanding Action From Obama

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/01/eric-holder-too-big-to-jail_n_2993401.html

Activists will deliver petitions to Department of Justice offices around the country on Tuesday, calling on President Barack Obama to crack down on big banks. The move comes after nearly a month of vocal backlash against Attorney General Eric Holder's admission that some financial institutions are simply too big to prosecute.

The petitions, organized by a variety of liberal advocacy groups such as MoveOn and CREDO Action, have drawn more than 300,000 signatures, organizers claim. A petition on MoveOn's digital platform calling for Obama to "take immediate steps to break up the big banks and prosecute the criminals who used them to destroy our economy" has gathered more than 140,000 signatures. CREDO’s petition demanding that Holder resign if he won’t prosecute criminal bankers has drawn more than 150,000 signatures.

The campaign was sparked by Holder's confession during testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee in March that the Justice Department had declined to press criminal charges against big banks due to concerns that doing so could damage the stability of the global economy.

"I am concerned that the size of some of these institutions becomes so large that it does become difficult for us to prosecute them when we are hit with indications that if you do prosecute, if you do bring a criminal charge, it will have a negative impact on the national economy, perhaps even the world economy," Holder said. "And I think that is a function of the fact that some of these institutions have become too large."

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) later summarized the concerns expressed by many in the wake of Holder's comments.

“It has been almost five years since the financial crisis, but the big banks are still too big to fail," she said in a statement. "That means they are subsidized by about $83 billion a year by American taxpayers and are still not being held fully accountable for breaking the law. Attorney General Holder’s testimony that the biggest banks are too-big-to-jail shows once again that it is past time to end too-big-to-fail."

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) submitted legislation last week seeking to address "too big to jail" institutions by eliminating the "too big to fail" practice that has propped them up.

[Demeter]

30. Why Seniors Are Turning Against The GOP: Carville-Greenberg Memo

http://www.nationalmemo.com/carville-greenberg/why-seniors-are-turning-against-the-gop/

There’s something going on with seniors: It is now strikingly clear that they have turned sharply against the GOP. This is apparent in seniors’ party affiliation and vote intention, in their views on the Republican Party and its leaders, and in their surprising positions on jobs, health care, retirement security, investment economics, and the other big issues that will likely define the 2014 midterm elections.

We first noticed a shift among seniors early in the summer of 2011, as Paul Ryan’s plan to privatize Medicare became widely known (and despised) among those at or nearing retirement. Since then, the Republican Party has come to be defined by much more than its desire to dismantle Medicare. To voters from the center right to the far left, the GOP is now defined by resistance, intolerance, intransigence, and economics that would make even the Robber Barons blush. We have seen other voters pull back from the GOP, but among no group has this shift been as sharp as it is among senior citizens:

—In 2010, seniors voted for Republicans by a 21 point margin (38 percent to 59 percent). Among seniors likely to vote in 2014, the Republican candidate leads by just 5 points (41 percent to 46 percent.)

—When Republicans took control of the House of Representatives at the beginning of 2011, 43 percent of seniors gave the Republican Party a favorable rating. Last month, just 28 percent of seniors rated the GOP favorably. This is not an equal-opportunity rejection of parties or government — over the same period, the Democratic Party’s favorable rating among seniors has increased 3 points, from 37 percent favorable to 40 percent favorable.

—When the Republican congress took office in early 2011, 45 percent of seniors approved of their job performance. That number has dropped to just 22 percent — with 71 percent disapproving.

—Seniors are now much less likely to identify with the Republican Party. On Election Day in 2010, the Republican Party enjoyed a net 10 point party identification advantage among seniors (29 percent identified as Democrats, 39 percent as Republicans). As of last month, Democrats now had a net 6 point advantage in party identification among seniors (39 percent to 33 percent).

—More than half (55 percent) of seniors say the Republican Party is too extreme, half (52 percent) say it is out of touch, and half (52 percent) say the GOP is dividing the country. Just 10 percent of seniors believe that the Republican Party does not put special interests ahead of ordinary voters.

—On almost every issue we tested — including gay rights, aid to the poor, immigration, and gun control — more than half of seniors believe that the Republican Party is too extreme.

What do seniors care about now? Our Democracy Corps July National Survey found that:

—89 percent of seniors want to protect Medicare benefits and premiums.

—87 percent of seniors want to raise pay for working women.

—79 percent of seniors think we need to expand scholarships for working adults.

—77 percent of seniors want to expand access to high-quality and affordable childcare for working parents.

—74 percent of seniors want to cut subsidies to big oil companies, agribusinesses, and multinational corporations in order to invest in education, infrastructure, and technology.

—66 percent of seniors want to expand state health insurance exchanges under Obamacare.

All of these issues will be critical to the national debate as the 2014 election nears. The more seniors hear from Republicans on these and other issues, the more we can expect the GOP’s advantage among this important group to decline. And we can count on one thing in 2014: Seniors will vote.

[Demeter]

31. Guess what! It's the Weekend (tomorrow)

And we are going to have a blast...or two. Literally. Wear Kevlar.

[Demeter]

32. You've been found out Mr Rehn. The European Commissioner has been joking all along By Jeremy Warner

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100025384/youve-been-found-out-mr-rehn-the-european-commissioner-has-been-joking-all-along/

It's taken me a while, but I've finally worked Olli Rehn out. For years I've made the mistake of taking Europe's economics Commissioner seriously, but it now transpires that a bit like Jeremy Clarkson, his whole world view is a massive exercise in teasing, comic irony. It's deliberately aimed at winding us all up.

Take the latest example. For some years now, Mr Rehn has been repeatedly declaring the eurozone crisis over, only to be proved consistently wrong. So wrong, in fact, that he has become a standing joke. Indeed, you have been able to set your watch by him. Every time Mr Rehn opens his mouth to claim final vindication of the policies the European Commission is imposing on Europe's dispossessed, you kind of know that the storm is about to break out anew.

And now he's done it again. "The data…supports, in my view, the fundamentals of our crisis response: a policy mix where building a stability culture and pursuing structural reforms supportive of growth and jobs go hand in hand", he said in response to news that the eurozone has finally emerged from recession.

He's joking, right? Indeed he must be, and by going just a little bit too far in his claims, he's given the game away. It was good while it lasted, but now we know that even Mr Rehn cannot believe in what he says, for otherwise he surely would have tempered his remarks with a few caveats.

But no, a "policy mix" which has reduced large parts of the eurozone to abject ruin has apparently been "building a stability culture", and though you couldn't possibly surmise it from the data, it's all "supportive of growth and jobs". Breathtaking.

[DemReadingDU]

33. Nasdaq trading halted due to technical issue

Appx 12:14pm

Nasdaq trading halted due to technical issue


Nasdaq said on Thursday it was halting trading in all securities until further notice due to a problem affecting quote dissemination.

Dozens of publicly traded companies, including high-profile companies such as Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Facebook (FB), were showing their shares halted. The Nasdaq status message was time stamped at 12:14:03 ET.

A spokesman for the SEC said, "We are monitoring the situation and are inclose contact with the exchanges."

The Nasdaq (NDAQ) options markets also issued a "system update" saying they were recommending firms route all open orders elsewhere.

The New York Stock Exchange said it had halted trading in all Nasdaq securities at its request and was cancelling orders. The NYSE otherwise declined comment.

"You can't trade if you can't get the quotes out," said Rich Repetto of Sandler O'Neill Partners.

"They want everybody else to shut down Tape C trading so they can restart over at the Nasdaq and until they do they can't restart", said CNBC contributor Pete Najarian. Tape C refer to any securities traded over the Nasdaq.

"When everyone comes back online at the same time that's when even more dangerous things can happen in the marketplace," said Sal Arnuk, the co-founder of Themis Trading.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/nasdaq-trading-halted-due-technical-162926716.html

[Demeter]

34. You don't say!

Fragility and Collapse: Slowly at first, then all at once

http://cluborlov.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/fragility-and-collapse-slowly-at-first.html#more

...My prediction is that the USA will collapse financially, economically and politically within the foreseeable future...predicting that something is going to happen is a lot easier than predicting when something will happen. Suppose you have an old bridge: the concrete is cracked, chunks of it are missing with rusty rebar showing through. An inspector declares it “structurally deficient.” This bridge is definitely going to collapse at some point, but on what date? That is something that nobody can tell you. If you push for an answer, you might hear something like this: If it doesn’t collapse within a year, then it might stay up for another two. And if it stays up that long, then it might stay up for another decade. But if it stays up for an entire decade, then it will probably collapse within a year or two of that, because, given its rate of deterioration, at that point it will be entirely unclear what is holding it up.

You see, the timing estimates are inevitably subjective and, if you will, impressionistic, but there are objective things to pay attention to: how much structure is left (given that large chunks of concrete are continuing to fall out of it and into the river below) and the rate at which it is deteriorating (measurable in chunks per month). Most people have trouble assessing such risks. There are two problems: the first is that people often think that they would be able to assess the risk more accurately if they had more data. It does not occur to them that the information they are looking for is not available simply because it does not exist. And so they incorporate more data, hoping that they are relevant, making their estimate even less accurate.

The second problem is that people assume that they are playing a game of chance, and that it’s a fair one: something Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls the “ludic fallacy.” If you drive over a structurally deficient bridge every day, it could be said that you are gambling with your life; but are you gambling, exactly? Gambling normally involves games of chance: roll of the dice, flip of the coin, unless someone is cheating. Fair games form a tiny, insignificant subset of all possible games, and they can only be played in contrived, controlled, simplified circumstances, using a specially designed apparatus that is functioning perfectly. Suppose someone tells you that he just flipped a coin 10 times and all 10 were heads? What is the probability that the next flip will be heads too? If you think 50%, then you are discounting the very high probability that the game is rigged. And this makes you a sucker.

Games played directly against nature are never fair. You could say that nature always cheats: just as you are about to win the jackpot, the casino gets hit by an asteroid. You might think that such unlikely events are not significant, but it turns out that they are: Taleb’s black swans rule the world. Really, nature doesn’t so much cheat as not give a damn about your rules. But these rules are all you have go by: a bridge is sound if it corresponds to the picture in the head of its designer. The correspondence is almost perfect when it’s new, but as it ages a noticeable divergence takes place: cracks appear and the structure decays. At some more or less arbitrary point it is declared unsafe. But there is no picture in anyone’s head of it collapsing, because, you see, it wasn’t designed to collapse; it was designed to stay up. The information as to when it will collapse does not exist. There is a trick, however: you can observe the rate of divergence; when it goes from linear to exponential (that is, it begins to double) then collapse is not far, and you might even be able to set an upper limit on how long it will take. If the number of cement chunks falling out of your bridge keeps doubling, you can compute the moment when every last piece of the bridge will be in the river, and that is your upper bound.... To summarize: it is possible to predict that something will happen with uncanny accuracy. For example, all empires eventually collapse, with no exceptions; therefore, the USA will collapse. There, I did it. But it is not possible to predict when something will happen because of the problem of missing information: we have a mental model of how something continues to exist, not of how it unexpectedly ceases to exist. However, by watching the rate of deterioration, or divergence from our mental model, we can sometimes tell when the date is drawing near. The first type of prediction—that something will collapse—is extremely useful, because it tells you how to avoid putting at risk that which you cannot afford to lose. But there are situations when you have no choice; for instance, you were born into an empire that’s about to collapse. And that is where the second type of prediction—that something will collapse real soon—comes in very handy, because it tells you that it’s time to pull your bacon out of the fire... once something collapses, it tends to stay collapsed for a long time.

And why wouldn’t you want to flee like a rat, if you happen to be one of the many temporary millionaires who made a fortune in the US economy and do not wish to lose it? The US financial system is broken, and by now it is clear that it is not going to be fixed.

MUCH MORE....WORTH A SECOND OR THIRD LOOK (EVERY WEEK, EVEN!)

[DemReadingDU]

37. Yeh, I've read Orlov a few times

I like the analogy with that old bridge

[DoBotherMe]

35. k & r

[rusty fender]

36. Glad to see that you are back, Miss Tansy!

Hope you are feeling better