Economy
Related: About this forumSTOCK MARKET WATCH -- Tuesday, 27 August 2013
Last edited Tue Aug 27, 2013, 11:01 AM - Edit history (1)
[font size=3]STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday, 27 August 2013[font color=black][/font]
SMW for 26 August 2013
AT THE CLOSING BELL ON 26 August 2013
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Dow Jones 14,946.46 -64.05 (-0.43%)
S&P 500 1,656.78 -6.72 (-0.40%)
Nasdaq 3,657.57 -0.22 (-0.01%)
[font color=green]10 Year 2.78% -0.02 (-0.71%)
30 Year 3.76% -0.03 (-0.79%) [font color=black]
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[font size=2]Market Conditions During Trading Hours[/font]
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[font size=2]Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold[center]
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Market Data and News:[/font][/font]
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Economic Calendar
Marketwatch Data
Bloomberg Economic News
Yahoo Finance
Google Finance
Bank Tracker
Credit Union Tracker
Daily Job Cuts
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Economic Blogs:[/font][/font]
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The Big Picture
Financial Sense
Calculated Risk
Naked Capitalism
Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong
Bonddad
Atrios
goldmansachs666
The Stand-Up Economist
The Automatic Earth
Wall Street on Parade
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Essential Reading:[/font][/font]
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Matt Taibi: Secret and Lies of the Bailout
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Government Issues:[/font][/font]
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LegitGov
Open Government
Earmark Database
USA spending.gov
[/center][font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Videos:[/font][/font]
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Charlie Rose talks with Roubini
Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
William Black: This Economic Disaster
Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn
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[font color=red]Partial List of Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 [/font][font color=red]
2/2/12 David Higgs and Salmaan Siddiqui, Credit Suisse, plead guilty to conspiracy involving valuation of MBS
3/6/12 Allen Stanford, former Caribbean billionaire and general schmuck, convicted on 13 of 14 counts in $2.2B Ponzi scheme, faces 20+ years in prison
6/4/12 Matthew Kluger, lawyer, sentenced to 12 years in prison, along with co-conspirator stock trader Garrett Bauer (9 years) and co-conspirator Kenneth Robinson (not yet sentenced) for 17 year insider trading scheme.
6/14/12 Allen Stanford sentenced to 110 years without parole.
6/15/12 Rajat Gupta, former Goldman Sachs director, found guilty of insider trading. Could face a decade in prison when sentenced later this year.
6/22/12 Timothy S. Durham, 49, former CEO of Fair Financial Company, convicted of one count conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, 10 counts of wire fraud, and one count of securities fraud.
6/22/12 James F. Cochran, 56, former chairman of the board of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and six counts of wire fraud.
6/22/12 Rick D. Snow, 48, former CFO of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and three counts of wire fraud.
7/13/12 Russell Wassendorf Sr., CEO of collapsed brokerage firm Peregrine Financial Group Inc. arrested and charged with lying to regulators after admitting to authorities he embezzled "millions of dollars" and forged bank statements for "nearly twenty years."
8/22/12 Doug Whitman, Whitman Capital LLC hedge fund founder, convicted of insider trading following a trial in which he spent more than two days on the stand telling jurors he was innocent
10/26/12 UPDATE: Former Goldman Sachs director Rajat Gupta sentenced to two years in federal prison. He will, of course, appeal. . .
11/20/12 Hedge fund manager Matthew Martoma charged with insider trading at SAC Capital Advisors, and prosecutors are looking at Martoma's boss, Steven Cohen, for possible involvement.
02/14/13 Gilbert Lopez, former chief accounting officer of Stanford Financial Group, and former controller Mark Kuhrt sentenced to 20 yrs in prison for their roles in Allen Sanford's $7.2 billion Ponzi scheme.
03/29/13 Michael Sternberg, portfolio mgr at SAC Capital, arrested in NYC, charged with conspiracy and securities fraud. Pled not guilty and freed on $3m bail.
04/04/13 Matthew Marshall Taylor,fmr Goldman Sachs trader arrested, charged by CFTC w/defrauding his employer on $8BN futures bet "by intentionally concealing the true huge size, as well as the risk and potential profits or losses associated."
04/04/13 Matthew Taylor admits guilt, makes plea bargain. Sentencing set for 26 June; faces up to 20 years in prison but will likely only see 3-4 years. Says, "I am truly sorry."
04/11/13 Ex-KPMG LLP partner Scott London charged by federal prosecutors w/passing inside tips to a friend in exchange for cash, jewelry, and concert tickets; expected to plead guilty in May.
08/01/13 Fabrice Tourré convicted on six counts of security fraud, including "aiding and abetting" his former employer, Goldman Sachs
08/14/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout charged with wire fraud, falsifying records, and conspiracy in connection with JP Morgan's "London Whale" trade.
08/19/13 Phillip A. Falcone, manager of hedge fund Harbinger Capital Partners, agrees to admit to "wrongdoing" in market manipulation. Will banned from securities industry for 5 years and pay $18MM in disgorgement and fines.
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[font size=3][font color=red]This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.[/font][/font][/font color=red][font color=black]
Fuddnik
(8,846 posts)The football coach makes a lot more than him.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)Summer is over, my friends.
Fuddnik
(8,846 posts)I have to get my wife's laptop keyboard fixed. I think Rosco stepped on it.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)Have to shake some time loose to load all the broken stuff into the car and wait in line...pay through the nose, and wait for weeks.
Or, go buy a refurbished Dell...or think abou tit for a few months, years....
Pardon my lack of enthusiasm...
Your Roscoe needs a diet.
Warpy
(110,900 posts)if you get it sooner rather than later.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)We are looking more like the USSR every day.
As predicted...
AnneD
(15,774 posts)central banks are having to go on the open market now to replace was leased/sold.
You ain't seen nothing yet.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)How low can you go?
Fuddnik
(8,846 posts)Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods recorded their biggest drop in nearly a year in July and a gauge of planned business spending on capital goods tumbled, casting a shadow over the economy early in the third quarter.
The Commerce Department said on Monday durable goods orders dropped 7.3 percent as demand for goods ranging from aircraft to computers and defense equipment fell. That was the biggest decline since last August and snapped three consecutive months of gains
Orders for these goods, which range from toasters to aircraft, had increased 3.9 percent in June.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected durable goods orders to fall 4.0 percent.
Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, fell 3.3 percent, breaking four straight months of gains. It was the biggest fall since February.
(snip)
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/outlook-3rd-quarter-darkens-durable-goods-orders-tumble-8C10996040
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Not to worry. O'Bomber is getting ready to start another Mideast war to pick up the slack.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)With the usual multiplier effect: dead Americans from IEDs, PSTD, and medals for drone boys in Colorado...
Warpy
(110,900 posts)I'd still be giving that refurbished 70s era fridge percussive maintenance 3 or 4 times a day so the compressor would cycle instead of admiring my new low-energy single door fridge. I'd be limping that old crate along until it gave me food poisoning and then maybe I'd be in the market for another reconditioned fridge of uncertain vintage that sucked too much power.
I know I don't see trucks delivering much of anything in this neighborhood these days. Nobody can afford to spend in this hostile economy.
Hotler
(11,353 posts)You'll need a shower after reading this.
http://nymag.com/news/business/themoney/john-mack-2012-4/
Look Whos Back
John Mack is no longer at the top of Morgan Stanley. So hes getting his fix elsewhere.
While the company he headed is a shadow of its former selfthis year, Morgan Stanley is laying off 1,600 people, Moodys is threatening to downgrade its credit rating, and the share price is down 32 percent over the past twelve monthsMack stock, it seems, is up. Hes taken a position as an adviser to the China Investment Corporation, the $400 billion Chinese sovereign-wealth fund, and joined the board of Rev Worldwide, a company that specializes in prepaid debit cards. Last month, Mack scored a high-profile appointment as a senior adviser to private-equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts. And those are just the things I can tell you about, he says with a chuckle.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)Can we talk them into hiring Larry Summers, too?
xchrom
(108,903 posts)The goal of a single rule book for Europes banks is splintering even before its implemented as northern countries move ahead with tougher requirements to ward off the next boom-to-bust cycle.
Swedens too-big-to-fail banks, which already face stricter capital rules than their competitors elsewhere, may be told to hold even larger reserves, Financial Markets Minister Peter Norman said yesterday. In Denmark, Business Minister Henrik Sass Larsen said he cant wait for southern Europe to regulate its systemically important financial institutions. He backs the swift passage of national capital laws to curb bank risks.
Getting Sifi regulations in place in a number of southern European countries probably will take time, Larsen said in an e-mailed reply to questions. We must signal we are in control of things and thereby strengthen the markets and customers confidence in them.
As Europe struggles to stimulate growth without stoking a new credit bubble, the specter of swelling private debt is prompting regulators from Sweden to the Netherlands to curb borrowing. The measures go beyond new capital rules approved earlier this year by the European Union and set to become law by Jan. 1.
xchrom
(108,903 posts)Stocks fell for a second day, the yen strengthened and bonds rose after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Syria will be held accountable for using chemical weapons. Turkeys lira and Indias rupee weakened to records while oil and gold advanced.
The MSCI All-Country World Index dropped 0.6 percent to 369.04 at 10:15 a.m. in London as Standard & Poors 500 Index futures fell 0.5 percent. Japans currency appreciated at least 0.5 percent versus all 31 of its major counterparts and bonds rose. The lira tumbled to 2 per dollar for the first time and the rupee sank 2.3 percent. Thailands benchmark equity gauge headed for a bear market. West Texas Intermediate crude added 0.5 percent to $106.43 a barrel and gold climbed 0.5 percent to $1,412.07 an ounce.
Kerry said President Barack Obama believes there must be accountability for the moral obscenity of using chemical weapons, fanning concern unrest may disrupt Middle East oil supplies. An Ifo institute report today showed German business confidence rose for a fourth month in August, before data on U.S. housing and consumer confidence.
For anyone who thought that the Arab Spring was going to be a temporary situation, its proven to not be the case, Erik Wytenus, Hong Kong-based head of foreign exchange and commodities at JPMorgan Private Bank in Asia, said on Bloomberg Televisions On the Move with Rishaad Salamat. Youve got a bit of short-term, safe haven, flight-to-quality bid. Emerging markets are being punished by severe capital outflows, which are hitting their currencies inordinately hard.
xchrom
(108,903 posts)The rush starts at about 8 p.m. at La Infinito. Thats when Antonio Rojas Fernandez and Paloma Perez Rodriguezs Madrid cafe usually fills up, typically keeping them busy until midnight.
While they have two part-timers to help prepare food and bus the dozen tables a few times a week, the couple hasnt taken more than a day off each since opening in May 2012, five months after they lost their jobs. She was a teacher, while he installed television antennas.
Its not easy, but its working, said Perez, 36, popping her head through a beaded curtain from the kitchen as the fruit blenders whir covers the music. I tell people its true I still have problems, said Rojas, who is a year older. The difference is that now theyre the ones Ive chosen.
As Spaniards endure the worst economic crisis and deepest austerity measures in their countrys democratic history, start-up companies are proliferating.
Over the first seven months of the year, registrations of self-employed people increased by 21,992 while they fell by 6,826 over the same period a year earlier. The number of companies created increased by 8.2 percent in the first half as a 26 percent unemployment rate spurs entrepreneurship in a country where the government still accounts for one in six jobs.
Ghost Dog
(16,881 posts)Last edited Tue Aug 27, 2013, 09:49 AM - Edit history (1)
Some great musicians hang out on this island, Fuerteventura. So I'm starting up in the (currently undergoing great change) music biz: http://aridisland.com/ - go straight to some sample sounds here - (and building community).
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xchrom
(108,903 posts)Demeter
(85,373 posts)Success, my friend!
Ghost Dog
(16,881 posts)xchrom
(108,903 posts)German business confidence rose to the highest level in 16 months in August, beating forecasts and indicating that the recovery in Europes largest economy is gathering pace. A measure of construction activity fell.
The Ifo business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, climbed to 107.5 from 106.2 in July, the Munich-based institute said today. Thats the highest since April 2012. Economists predicted an increase to 107, according to the median of 42 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.
German gross domestic product expanded 0.7 percent in the second quarter, rebounding from a colder-than-usual winter that curbed output and helping the 17-nation euro area emerge from its longest-ever recession. The nations growth was led by private consumption and included the first increase in plant and machinery investment since 2011, signaling the recovery may be sustained.
The latest business sentiment readings confirm our view that the German economy will be able to maintain a somewhat more moderate but still robust momentum in the second half of 2013, following the exceptional rebound in the spring, said Alexander Koch, an economist at UniCredit Group in Munich. Domestic demand should remain a major growth pillar, currently adding to an overall broad-based recovery path.
xchrom
(108,903 posts)European investors are backing Excalibur Funds Management Ptys call for the Australian dollar to slump to 75 U.S. cents, reflecting record bets from speculators on declines in the currency.
Institutional investors placed $200 million with the Sydney-based hedge funds Australian dollar-only strategy since it started July 17, Matthew Harper, a principal and trader at Excalibur, said in an interview Aug. 22. Hedge funds and other speculators swung from record bets on Aussie gains in December to the most wagers ever this month that the currency will fall.
The local dollar slid 15 percent from a peak in April as Chinas slowdown sapped demand for the nations commodities and the Reserve Bank cut benchmark rates to a record, eroding the currencys high-yield status. Harper forecast the spread between Australian and U.S. 10-year government yields, now more than 1 percentage point, will converge by mid-2014.
There are a lot of headwinds ahead for the Australian dollar, Harper said. We cant rely on China, which we have for the last four or five years.
xchrom
(108,903 posts)A source from Team Obama told CNBC that Larry Summers will likely be named chairman of the Federal Reserve in a few weeks though he is "still being vetted" so it might take a little longer.
It's largely come down to a two-horse race between Summers, a former Treasury secretary, and Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen for the next Fed chief.
It is widely expected that the current Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will resign by the end of the year as his term ends in January. President Obama has already said that Bernanke has "already stayed a lot longer" in the role than he expected. Those remarks came in an interview with Charlie Rose on PBS in June.
Who might take the reins from Bernanke has been an undertone in the market and at the Fed's recent meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Read more: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100988773#ixzz2dAA5nlL4
fasttense
(17,301 posts)Obama needs to be more creative when picking maniacal, greedy, stupid psychopaths.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)AnneD
(15,774 posts)as the patient dies of pernicious anemia.
xchrom
(108,903 posts)Markets have a negative feel today, and once again the real pain is centered on emerging markets.
India is down 2.3%, and Jakarta fell 3.4%. Thailand dropped 1.4%.
The currencies of India, Turkey, and South Africa are sharply lower.
Meanwhile, European markets are lower. Italy is down 0.8%, about the same amount as Germany.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/morning-markets-august-27-2013-8#ixzz2dAB5wcuF
xchrom
(108,903 posts)Former Secretary of State Colin Powell spoke cautiously Sunday about any possible Syrian intervention, warning that the two-year-old civil war was likely beyond U.S. capabilities to affect any meaningful change.
"I have no affection for Assad," Powell told Bob Schieffer on CBS' "Face the Nation," while mentioning he knows the Syrian president and has personally dealt with him. "He's a pathological liar."
However, Powell said, "I am less sure of the resistance. What do they represent? Is it becoming even more radicalized with more al Qaeda coming in, and what would it look like if they prevailed and Assad went? I don't know."
Calls for U.S.-led intervention have intensified in recent days after horrifying video footage emerged of an alleged chemical attack on Aug. 21. A senior administration official harbored "very little doubt" the Assad regime was behind the attack, despite their denials.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/colin-powell-syria-caution-2013-8#ixzz2dADqSiX3
Demeter
(85,373 posts)Middle eastern cultures are not known for plain speaking. They are far more "poetic", un-inclined to reveal much if anything of their real thought processes. Or to state a plan or opinion openly.
Unlike our President, who comes down forcefully on one side of the argument, and then does the exact opposite.
Unless, he's equating his president with Syria's....
DemReadingDU
(16,000 posts)Gen Wesley Clark being interviewed on DemocracyNow on March 2, 2007
Gen Wesley Clark Reveals US Plan To Invade Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Lybia, Somalia, Sudan, Iran
The plan was to take out seven countries in five years
video appx 1.5 minutes
xchrom
(108,903 posts)NEW HAVEN The global economy could be in the early stages of another crisis. Once again, the US Federal Reserve is in the eye of the storm.
As the Fed attempts to exit from so-called quantitative easing (QE) its unprecedented policy of massive purchases of long-term assets many high-flying emerging economies suddenly find themselves in a vise. Currency and stock markets in India and Indonesia are plunging, with collateral damage evident in Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey.
The Fed insists that it is blameless the same absurd position that it took in the aftermath of the Great Crisis of 2008-2009, when it maintained that its excessive monetary accommodation had nothing to do with the property and credit bubbles that nearly pushed the world into the abyss. It remains steeped in denial: Were it not for the interest-rate suppression that QE has imposed on developed countries since 2009, the search for yield would not have flooded emerging economies with short-term hot money.
Read more: http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-end-of-quantitative-easing-and-emerging-economies--growth-by-stephen-s--roach#ixzz2dAI3Fv00
Kolesar
(31,182 posts)The rates fell because money was looking for safety and to get out of Europe. that is over
xchrom
(108,903 posts)If you want to claim the 2008 recession ended, you have to find a metric that reflects "growth." For instance, gross domestic product (GDP), which has expanded since 2009.
But as Lance Roberts, Gordon T. Long and I discuss in Is the US in a Recession?(43 min. video, 52 slides), this metric of "growth" is suspect on a number of counts. For example, does this chart of full-time employees relative to the population look expansionary?
Or how about this chart of median household income, which adjusted for inflation isdown 7.2%?
Or how about real personal income less government personal transfers on a 5-year basis (the red line)? Notice that the red line only popped briefly above 0% into "growth" in late 2012 as those who could declared income in 2012 before the 1013 tax increases kicked in.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)Silly rabbits
xchrom
(108,903 posts)The good news this Labor Day: Jobs are returning. The bad news this Labor Day: Most of them pay lousy wages and low if non-existent benefits.
The trend toward lousy wages began before the Great Recession. According to a new report from the Economic Policy Institute, weak wage growth between 2000 and 2007, combined with wage losses for most workers since then, means that the bottom 60 percent of working Americans are earning less now than thirteen years ago.
This is also part of the explanation for why the percent of Americans living below the poverty line has been increasing even as the economy has started to recover from 12.3 percent in 2006 to around 14 percent this year. More than 35 million Americans now live below the poverty line.
Many of them have jobs. The problem is these jobs just dont pay enough to lift their families out of poverty.
Read more: http://robertreich.org/post/59342894595#ixzz2dAO8BZmm
xchrom
(108,903 posts)The Indian government has approved infrastructure projects worth 1.83tn rupees ($28.4bn; £17.7bn) to revive the economy and boost the falling rupee.
Finance Minister P Chidambaram said 36 stalled projects in oil, gas, power, road and railways sectors were cleared.
"The message we are sending is that the investment cycle has restarted, and we are pushing it," he said.
The announcement came on a day the rupee hit a new record low, touching 65.6 against the US dollar.
xchrom
(108,903 posts)JP Morgan has been ordered to pay Russian billionaire Leonard Blavatnik $50m after losing a claim for damages.
Mr Blavatnik brought the claim against the investment bank after suffering losses following the collapse of the US subprime mortgage market.
New York judge Melvin Schweitzer ruled that JP Morgan breached its contract with Mr Blavatnik's investment fund.
But he rejected a claim for negligence because at the time the investments were considered "reasonable".
Demeter
(85,373 posts)This is breaking up the big banks by attrition...a much harder, more costly way of doing it.
xchrom
(108,903 posts)Greece may seek to ease its debt burden by renegotiating its bailout terms, the Greek finance minister said on Monday.
Yannis Stournaras told German newspaper Handelsblatt this could involve lower interest payments and more time to repay 240bn euros (£206bn) in loans.
It comes a day after he conceded that Greece may face a hole in its finances of up to 10bn euros.
Speculation over Athens' borrowing needs comes at a sensitive time, with German elections due in September.
xchrom
(108,903 posts)Anti-malls are the new malls. So proclaims the staff of D.C.-area booster magazine Washingtonian, in a fun compendium of "The Best of Washington: 62 Reasons to Love Our City" (July 2013). Even the suburbs are figuring out that walkable retail, not enclosed malls surrounded by parking lots, is the way to go in the twenty-first century:
With sophisticated shopping centers such as the Mosaic district in Merrifield and Bethesda Row, suburbs are taking a cue from their urban brethren by shifting to walkable, tree-lined town centerscombining community, thoughtful design, and carefully curated boutiques (Ginger, Bellacara) with specialty eateries. A far cry from the '80s supermall, these feel completely freshthanks in no small part to the open air.
I was especially pleased to see the mention of Bethesda Row, the best example of successful suburban retrofit that I know. Indeed, my co-authors and I were so impressed by the then work-in-progress that we chose it for the cover of our 2001 book, Solving Sprawl. Bethesda, a once-sleepy if upscale inner suburb in nearby Maryland, was almost totally automobile-dependent in 1994 when the mixed-use, multi-block development was conceived for a decaying commercial/industrial strip; now, in no small part because of developments like Bethesda Row, Bethesda feels both urban and urbane, yet still human-scaled. Its a great place to be.
Rachel Nania, writing for the local all-news radio station WTOP, agrees that the landscape of area retail is changing dramatically, with enclosed shopping malls on the decline. She cites the Ballston Common Mall in another D.C. inner suburb, as an example. It sits almost on top of a Metro station but is losing customers.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)They are trying to eliminate enclosed malls here, but it simply isn't practical.
I really admired Minneapolis with their bridges over the streets and lockers and all.
Warpy
(110,900 posts)I hate going there, the Muzak is awful and the place is trying just a little too hard to be trendy.
It's miserable in spring when the weather consists of grit laden strong wind. However, we don't get enough rain to warrant closing it in under a roof.
xchrom
(108,903 posts)Indian customs officials are out in full force these days in their attempt to stop the illegal import of gold. At the airport in Kochi, in the south of the country, officials recently caught a man who had hidden two kilograms (5.5 pounds) of precious metals in his socks -- he was given away by his odd gait. Other customs officers on the border with Nepal stopped a truck with 35 kilograms of gold hidden in its bumper.
Their battle is a frustrating one. For every kilogram of gold seized, it is estimated that another makes it into the country unnoticed. Gangs pay smugglers up to 50,000 Indian rupees (around 575 or $770) to bring them gold from, for example, Dubai, a favorite source. Indians are obsessed with gold right now -- and not only because of the approaching wedding season. As the rupee has dropped dramatically in value, many Indians have turned to tangible assets. The government has increased its tax on gold imports as a way of shoring up the country's currency, but that has only caused wary investors to flee further.
The government comes up with new ideas for slowing the rupee's fall almost every day: by imposing customs duties on flat-screen TVs -- which Indians could previously bring into the country unobstructed -- for example, or by making it more difficult for company managers to export capital and invest it abroad.
None of this has helped. Since May, the rupee has lost 17 percent of its value against the dollar.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)Give up on fiat, and adopt gold standard.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)In a recent column, Bloomberg Views Al Hunt posited that Larry Summerss fateshould President Obama nominate him to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanakecould hinge on his former Harvard colleague (and Massachusetts senator) Elizabeth Warren. Warren, like many Democrats, is no big fan. Along with 16 other Democratic senators, she signed a letter urging the president to nominate Janet Yellen instead. If he doesnt, Hunt thinks Warren will ultimately support his nomination and that her influence could be decisive.
Im not convinced that Warrens support for Summers is a sure thing. She had no qualms about voting against Obamas choice for U.S. Trade Representative, Michael Froman, who, like Summers, is a protégé of former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and thus part of a crowd that Warren and many other liberals view with asperity.
But I do think that Summers, if hes nominated, will get a huge break from the Senate Democratic caucus, because, unlike the GOP caucus, it contains no serious presidential contenders. Why does that matter? Because presidential candidates are almost always captive to the passions of their partys base, and the liberal base of the Democratic Party loathes Summers. That would produce tremendous pressure to oppose him.
Consider, for a moment, the GOP caucus, where Senators Ted Cruz of Texas, Rand Paul of Kentucky, and Marco Rubio of Floridaall considered blue-chip prospects for the 2016 Republican nominationhave taken positions in vehement opposition to Obamacare, including passing a budget that doesnt fund the health-care law, even if that leads to a government shutdown. It may well be that each of these candidates believes this is a wise and necessary step that will boost their chance of winning the White Houseeven though many Republicans disagree. But even if they didnt believe this, the senators would have to pretend that they did to preserve and enhance their right-wing credibility.
The fact that Summers doesnt have three Democratic presidential hopefuls in the Senate probably means hell have three more votes than he would have otherwiseand that may wind up being the deciding factor if hes nominated.
Who Sits Where on Yellen vs. Summers http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-08-14/who-sits-where-on-yellen-vs-dot-summers
By Allison McCann and Peter Coy
Picture the choice of the next Federal Reserve chair as a seesaw. Some influential Wall Street types with Democratic ties, including Steven Rattner and Roger Altman, are sitting on former Treasury Secretary Larry Summerss side of the teeter-totter. Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen has strong support among women and Summers haters. The person with the power to tip the seesaw, President Barack Obama, is sitting right in the middlefor now. Here, in the spirit of the playground, is Bloomberg Businessweeks unscientific take on the politickingroll over the circles to see who sits where. (Update: Key influencers who havent gone on the record arent included.)
INTERACTIVE SEE-SAW AT LINK (DOESN'T HAVE ROBERT RUBIN OR HIS CULT ON IT, THOUGH)