Alan Greenspan has been reading my posts

[TalkingDog]

A Post to DU's Stock Market Watch from 2008

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3270348&mesg_id=3270716

Dogs don't really recognize coyotes as "not dog". To Mr. Spot the amber bushy-tailed thing that was the size of a dog, with the look of a dog and the actions of a dog, in his mind, must be a dog.

But coyotes are not dogs. There may be kinship, but they are another creature entirely. They don't fight the way dogs fight. They fight for different reasons than dogs. Dogs are trying to protect a known territory. Or they are trying to set the pack order. Mr. Spot was engaging the coyote with Dog Rules in mind.

The coyote was hunting or scouting and his reasons for fighting were much more feral. Given that, he reacted, in Mr. Spots mind, in wholly unexpected and unpredictable ways.

We are dogs. We know where our next meal is coming from. We seek to adjust or maintain our status. We seek to keep and protect what is ours and if possible gain more.

The creature we are dealing with in the financial realm may look like a dog and have the size of a dog and the actions of a dog. But make no mistake; it is not a dog. It is feral because we have not attended it or given it structure or training. It has gone wild. And now it is reacting, in the Market Doggy's minds, in wholly unexpected and unpredictable ways. Not at all dog-like. Not at all.

Bitten squarely on the ass. Indeed.

Mr. Greenspan's new book: "The Map And The Territory"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-02/alan-greenspans-modest-proposal-fix-broken-economic-models-modeling-irrational-anima

On the other, his solution is to do... more of the same: "if economists better integrate animal spirits into our models, we can improve our forecasting accuracy. Economic models should, when possible, measure and forecast systematic human behavior and the tendencies of corporate culture.... Forecasters may never approach the fantasy success of the Oracle of Delphi or Nostradamus, but we can surely improve on the discouraging performance of the past."

So, Greenspan's solution to the failure of linear models is to... model animal spirits, or said otherwise human irrationality. Brilliant.

[Fuddnik]

1. I think the old dog has dementia.

Mrs. Greenspan should take him for his final vet visit.

[jtuck004]

2. I think it's more likely something infectious, but it's too late to quarantine him now...

On the other hand, it's not too late to start a massive spay/neuter project, to make sure there aren't more generations with that affliction.

They would WISH they had gone to jail