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STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Monday, 22 September 2014
[font size=3]STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday, 22 September 2014[font color=black][/font]
SMW for 19 September 2014
AT THE CLOSING BELL ON 19 September 2014
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Dow Jones 17,279.74 +13.75 (0.08%)
[font color=red]S&P 500 2,010.40 -0.96 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 4,579.79 -13.64 (-0.30%)
[font color=green]10 Year 2.58% -0.03 (-1.15%)
30 Year 3.28% -0.05 (-1.50%) [font color=black]
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[font size=2]Market Conditions During Trading Hours[/font]
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(click on link for latest updates)
http://tools.investing.com/market_quotes.php?
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[font size=2]Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold[center]
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Market Data and News:[/font][/font]
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Economic Calendar
Marketwatch Data
Bloomberg Economic News
Yahoo Finance
Google Finance
Bank Tracker
Credit Union Tracker
Daily Job Cuts
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Economic Blogs:[/font][/font]
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The Big Picture
Financial Sense
Calculated Risk
Naked Capitalism
Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong
Bonddad
Atrios
goldmansachs666
The Stand-Up Economist
The Automatic Earth
Wall Street on Parade
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Essential Reading:[/font][/font]
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Matt Taibi: Secret and Lies of the Bailout
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Government Issues:[/font][/font]
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LegitGov
Open Government
Earmark Database
USA spending.gov
[/center][font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Videos:[/font][/font]
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Charlie Rose talks with Roubini
Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
William Black: This Economic Disaster
Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn
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[font color=red]Partial List of Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 [/font][font color=red]
2/2/12 David Higgs and Salmaan Siddiqui, Credit Suisse, plead guilty to conspiracy involving valuation of MBS
3/6/12 Allen Stanford, former Caribbean billionaire and general schmuck, convicted on 13 of 14 counts in $2.2B Ponzi scheme, faces 20+ years in prison
6/4/12 Matthew Kluger, lawyer, sentenced to 12 years in prison, along with co-conspirator stock trader Garrett Bauer (9 years) and co-conspirator Kenneth Robinson (not yet sentenced) for 17 year insider trading scheme.
6/14/12 Allen Stanford sentenced to 110 years without parole.
6/15/12 Rajat Gupta, former Goldman Sachs director, found guilty of insider trading. Could face a decade in prison when sentenced later this year.
6/22/12 Timothy S. Durham, 49, former CEO of Fair Financial Company, convicted of one count conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, 10 counts of wire fraud, and one count of securities fraud.
6/22/12 James F. Cochran, 56, former chairman of the board of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and six counts of wire fraud.
6/22/12 Rick D. Snow, 48, former CFO of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and three counts of wire fraud.
7/13/12 Russell Wassendorf Sr., CEO of collapsed brokerage firm Peregrine Financial Group Inc. arrested and charged with lying to regulators after admitting to authorities he embezzled "millions of dollars" and forged bank statements for "nearly twenty years."
8/22/12 Doug Whitman, Whitman Capital LLC hedge fund founder, convicted of insider trading following a trial in which he spent more than two days on the stand telling jurors he was innocent
10/26/12 UPDATE: Former Goldman Sachs director Rajat Gupta sentenced to two years in federal prison. He will, of course, appeal. . .
11/20/12 Hedge fund manager Matthew Martoma charged with insider trading at SAC Capital Advisors, and prosecutors are looking at Martoma's boss, Steven Cohen, for possible involvement.
02/14/13 Gilbert Lopez, former chief accounting officer of Stanford Financial Group, and former controller Mark Kuhrt sentenced to 20 yrs in prison for their roles in Allen Sanford's $7.2 billion Ponzi scheme.
03/29/13 Michael Sternberg, portfolio mgr at SAC Capital, arrested in NYC, charged with conspiracy and securities fraud. Pled not guilty and freed on $3m bail.
04/04/13 Matthew Marshall Taylor,fmr Goldman Sachs trader arrested, charged by CFTC w/defrauding his employer on $8BN futures bet "by intentionally concealing the true huge size, as well as the risk and potential profits or losses associated."
04/04/13 Matthew Taylor admits guilt, makes plea bargain. Sentencing set for 26 June; faces up to 20 years in prison but will likely only see 3-4 years. Says, "I am truly sorry."
04/11/13 Ex-KPMG LLP partner Scott London charged by federal prosecutors w/passing inside tips to a friend in exchange for cash, jewelry, and concert tickets; expected to plead guilty in May.
08/01/13 Fabrice Tourré convicted on six counts of security fraud, including "aiding and abetting" his former employer, Goldman Sachs
08/14/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout charged with wire fraud, falsifying records, and conspiracy in connection with JP Morgan's "London Whale" trade.
08/19/13 Phillip A. Falcone, manager of hedge fund Harbinger Capital Partners, agrees to admit to "wrongdoing" in market manipulation. Will banned from securities industry for 5 years and pay $18MM in disgorgement and fines.
09/16/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout officially indicted on charges associated with "London Whale" trade.
02/06/14 Matthew Martoma convicted of insider trading while at hedge fund SAC (Stephen A. Cohen) Capital Advisors. Expected sentence 7-10 years.
03/24/14 Annette Bongiorno, Bernard Madoff's secretary; Daniel Bonventre, director of operations for investments; JoAnn Crupi, an account manager; and Jerome O'Hara and George Perez, both computer programmers convicted of conspiracy to defraud clients, securities fraud, and falsifying the books and records.
05/19/14 Credit Suisse, which has an investment bank branch in NYC, agrees to plead guilty and pay appx. $2.6 billion penalties for helping wealthy Americans hide wealth and avoid taxes.
09/08/14 Matthew Martoma, convicted SAC trader, sentenced to 9 years in prison plus forfeiture of $9.3 million, including home and bank accounts
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[font size=3][font color=red]This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.[/font][/font][/font color=red][font color=black]
44 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
= new reply since forum marked as read
by Andrew Khouri
September 21, 2014
http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-boomer-mortgages-20140921-story.html
I believe this is Sean Connery with the Queen. 
http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-forecasts-1-eurusd-parity-2014-9
The Federal Reserve has been priming the market for tighter monetary policy as the US economy has continued to improve.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank has been easing policy further as economic activity stagnates and prices fall. In fact, the latest effort by the ECB to stimulate the economy flopped, and that has economists predicting even looser monetary policy.
All of this has resulted in a stronger dollar and higher US interest rates and a weaker euro and lower eurozone interest rates.
Goldman Sachs strategists see the euro tumbling all the way to $1 from the $1.29 level today.
"The euro has weakened by 8% versus the US dollar since May," Goldman Sachs' David Kostin wrote in a new note to clients. "We expect the downward gravitational pull on the EURUSD will persist for the next several years until it trades at parity versus the dollar by year-end 2017. From a spot of 1.29, our economists forecast the euro will depreciate by 7% vs. the dollar during the next year (to 1.20) and fall by 22% to parity by 2017."
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-forecasts-1-eurusd-parity-2014-9#ixzz3E2gRDDfQ
The Federal Reserve has been priming the market for tighter monetary policy as the US economy has continued to improve.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank has been easing policy further as economic activity stagnates and prices fall. In fact, the latest effort by the ECB to stimulate the economy flopped, and that has economists predicting even looser monetary policy.
All of this has resulted in a stronger dollar and higher US interest rates and a weaker euro and lower eurozone interest rates.
Goldman Sachs strategists see the euro tumbling all the way to $1 from the $1.29 level today.
"The euro has weakened by 8% versus the US dollar since May," Goldman Sachs' David Kostin wrote in a new note to clients. "We expect the downward gravitational pull on the EURUSD will persist for the next several years until it trades at parity versus the dollar by year-end 2017. From a spot of 1.29, our economists forecast the euro will depreciate by 7% vs. the dollar during the next year (to 1.20) and fall by 22% to parity by 2017."
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-forecasts-1-eurusd-parity-2014-9#ixzz3E2gRDDfQ
http://www.businessinsider.com/myth-stronger-dollar-stocks-2014-9
When the value of the US dollar rises, US goods become more expensive in overseas markets. General, a weaker local currency is good for economies that are driven by exports and maintain big trade surpluses.
The US dollar has been showing strength in recent weeks. And considering the significant foreign exposure of most big US companies, are we to expect stocks to tumble?
"Conventional wisdom holds that a stronger exchange rate is likely to be a headwind for stocks as US products become less competitive abroad," RBC Capital Markets' Jonathan Golub writes in a new note to clients. "Our research suggests this is not the case: (1) the economy and the dollar tend to move in tandem, which means that a stronger economy should result in dollar strength; (2) a rising dollar is supportive of higher multiples, as shown below."
Higher multiples means that investors are willing to pay a higher premium for stocks during periods of dollar strength.
Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders has noted that there are also significant economic benefits to having a stronger dollar including lower import prices, lower commodity prices, and cheaper foreign travel for Americans.
"In general, a stronger dollar is likely to be both an economic and market positive," Sonders said.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/myth-stronger-dollar-stocks-2014-9#ixzz3E2hiCufs
When the value of the US dollar rises, US goods become more expensive in overseas markets. General, a weaker local currency is good for economies that are driven by exports and maintain big trade surpluses.
The US dollar has been showing strength in recent weeks. And considering the significant foreign exposure of most big US companies, are we to expect stocks to tumble?
"Conventional wisdom holds that a stronger exchange rate is likely to be a headwind for stocks as US products become less competitive abroad," RBC Capital Markets' Jonathan Golub writes in a new note to clients. "Our research suggests this is not the case: (1) the economy and the dollar tend to move in tandem, which means that a stronger economy should result in dollar strength; (2) a rising dollar is supportive of higher multiples, as shown below."
Higher multiples means that investors are willing to pay a higher premium for stocks during periods of dollar strength.
Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders has noted that there are also significant economic benefits to having a stronger dollar including lower import prices, lower commodity prices, and cheaper foreign travel for Americans.
"In general, a stronger dollar is likely to be both an economic and market positive," Sonders said.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/myth-stronger-dollar-stocks-2014-9#ixzz3E2hiCufs
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-eurozone-economy-is-turning-the-corner-2014-9
The take-up of the ECB's TLTRO program announced back in June was materially lower than expected. About €83bn worth of cheap long-dated loans was picked up by the area's banking system. Many had expected €150bn and even greater. Part of the reason is that banks that are not quite ready to deploy the funds don't want to sit on cash with negative rates. As a result some have concluded that the Eurozone's credit contraction will worsen from here and economic conditions will deteriorate further.
As views of doom and gloom envelop the Eurozone, it may be time time for a contrarian view: the euro area's economy is turning the corner. Yes, it's difficult to imagine such a thing and we are sure to get numerous angry emails and comments. Ultimately it's about the data.First of all we start with the Eurozone's inflation expectations which continue to fall. That combined with a weaker than expected TLTRO take-up will keep the ECB highly active in its easing efforts, potentially even considering QE.
It's important to keep in mind that the ECB is trying to replace at least in part the 3yr LTRO and MRO loans that banks have been repaying. These repayments have resulted in an unprecedented reduction in the central bank (Eurosystem) balance sheet since the beginning of last year.
Without a strong take-up in the TLTRO, the ECB will consider other options to expand the balance sheet. The planned ABS purchases will hardly make a dent because the new Basel Accord has all but destroyed that market. Therefore there will be pressure on the ECB to do something else in order to stem the decline in its balance sheet. Plus we are already seeing EU institutions calling on the BIS to loosen regulatory capital rules for structured credit issuance. All of this is positive for the Eurozone banks and will likely expand liquidity in the system. That's in part why we've had a nice pop in euro area bank shares recently.
Interestingly, a number of analysts have been pointing out that the Eurozone bank deleveraging is over. Credit contraction in the area is ending. One can see glimpses of this in the area's money supply measures which have stabilized recently.
The take-up of the ECB's TLTRO program announced back in June was materially lower than expected. About €83bn worth of cheap long-dated loans was picked up by the area's banking system. Many had expected €150bn and even greater. Part of the reason is that banks that are not quite ready to deploy the funds don't want to sit on cash with negative rates. As a result some have concluded that the Eurozone's credit contraction will worsen from here and economic conditions will deteriorate further.
As views of doom and gloom envelop the Eurozone, it may be time time for a contrarian view: the euro area's economy is turning the corner. Yes, it's difficult to imagine such a thing and we are sure to get numerous angry emails and comments. Ultimately it's about the data.First of all we start with the Eurozone's inflation expectations which continue to fall. That combined with a weaker than expected TLTRO take-up will keep the ECB highly active in its easing efforts, potentially even considering QE.
It's important to keep in mind that the ECB is trying to replace at least in part the 3yr LTRO and MRO loans that banks have been repaying. These repayments have resulted in an unprecedented reduction in the central bank (Eurosystem) balance sheet since the beginning of last year.
Without a strong take-up in the TLTRO, the ECB will consider other options to expand the balance sheet. The planned ABS purchases will hardly make a dent because the new Basel Accord has all but destroyed that market. Therefore there will be pressure on the ECB to do something else in order to stem the decline in its balance sheet. Plus we are already seeing EU institutions calling on the BIS to loosen regulatory capital rules for structured credit issuance. All of this is positive for the Eurozone banks and will likely expand liquidity in the system. That's in part why we've had a nice pop in euro area bank shares recently.
Interestingly, a number of analysts have been pointing out that the Eurozone bank deleveraging is over. Credit contraction in the area is ending. One can see glimpses of this in the area's money supply measures which have stabilized recently.
I can't think of anything that would help. 
Well, one thing, but there's nothing can be done about THAT.