Now Flying Below “Stall Speed”

[marmar]

[font color="blue"]Recession Watch: Looking at Retail Sales for Clues.[/font]

By Larry Kummer, editor of the Fabius Maximus website:


We watch the trend in retail sales because it shows how shocks in the US economy’s cyclical industries ripple outwards, first slowing sales growth — then pulling it down.

In April 2000 sales stalled; in March 2001 the recession began. There was no plateau before the Great Recession; sales peaked one month before the recession began. And now, according to the Commerce Department, October 2015 was the third month of flat retail sales; they’re down 1% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) since July excluding autos. Autos have been one of the strongest industries during the recovery. Excluding autos, retail sales are down year-over-year in real terms.



Auto sales have been a prop for the economy. They’ve been boosted by imprudent lending, with the average auto loan rising to $27,000 when the median household income of only $53,000, for an astonishing 65-month maturity — with 19.3% of auto loans going to people with subprime credit ratings.

The monthly volatility of auto sales makes trend changes difficult to see; this should be high on your list of things to watch. The inevitable crash in auto sales will be ugly, dragging down the entire economy. Automobiles have a higher multiplier effect on the economy than most retail products due to their size and complexity — consuming large amounts of raw materials and labor, requiring people to transport, sell, and finance them. ..................(more)

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/11/13/recession-watch-looking-at-october-retail-sales-for-clues/

[corkhead]

1. It is impossible to get a mortgage if you are on the financial fringe

but just about anybody who's breathing can get a car loan.

[Demeter]

2. The grocery stores are competing on sales here

and if you don't mind a limited diet, you can eat fairly well and fairly cheaply.

Clothes are better quality, for less, which is good, because the thrift stores are full of the junk that was sold back in the roaring oughts...sleazy, slinky slut clothes, not suitable for 90% of the population ever, and only for 10% of the clothes-wearing occasions.

Furniture stores go out of business...we lost a couple. There aren't many left, frankly.

When the banks start going out of business, then you KNOW it's bad!

I think it will be a Black Christmas. I don't need any electronic junk. I will keep the dumb phone and stay off the cable. What I really need is a finish carpenter and some new windows...