Long in the market? Still time to get out, b4 nxt TrickleDownDereg disaster

[Bill USA]

... I really am not one to offer investment advice. I don't think any of the old saws about timing (okay, '...Go away in May' is pretty good) are that reliable, but one thing that is reliable, is when the GOP takes the WH and in particular also controls Congress, you can expect the economy and market to take a beating. Now, it could take a couple of years of cuts in taxes for the wealthy to show up in moribund consumer spending, and diminished growth and job creation, but considering what a screw-ball-idiot DT is, he may shake the markets sooner. If you want to gamble though, the idiot stock traders will likely drive up the market for a time - maybe two years. But if you want to be safe, I'd say get out NOW.

IF you want to go for gains, instead of just protecting your principal, then you might want to consider buying an ETF that shorts the market.


http://www.tradermike.net/inverse-short-etfs-bearish-etf-funds/

[MFM008]

1. my brother who studies economic trends

says another 2008 or worse is coming.

[Wellstone ruled]

2. Yes the next

down turn will be a copy of 1929 and last longer.

[Yonnie3]

3. I have a conservative portfolio allocation.

If the market tanks I will re-balance to my target allocation. This worked very well for me in 2008/9. I was nervous, but bought equities to balance my portfolio. I was ahead by 2010 and way ahead by the end of 2011. When I look at a chart of my net portfolio worth, 2008/9 is just a bump. I wish I hadn't run scared when the tech bubble burst around 2000. Re-balancing forces me to sell high and buy low. A bear market will be full of opportunity.

I have long ago sold all stock shares I held and only hold low fee mutual funds. These are mostly index funds. Enron taught me that individual companies were too risky.

[Warpy]

5. You are a wise investor

The worst reason to make any financial decision is panic. Second worst is fear.

[Warpy]

4. I live on dividends and interest

so pulling out at this point would cost me more than it would save and would also be a pain in the ass.

I can't advise anyone who didn't have a father who invested for income. Mine did so I'm in for the next collapse since I'm not relying on the share price, only the income.

[Yonnie3]

6. Yes! As the old school bankers used to say, "never spend your capital."

Dividends and Interest rule! I include capital gains in my income on occasion. I have a cushion of cash, EE Bonds, etc. so I don't have to sell to live. I take gains when it makes sense. Dividends and long term gains cause very little tax liability for me. Much of my assets that would generate taxable income are in tax deferred accounts and the assets with dividends and possible capital gains are in my taxable account avoiding a lot of tax.

It took many years of working hard and living cheap to get to where I am, I wish I had seen the light earlier in life.

[Warpy]

7. I got the point but was kept artificially poor

by a chronic disease that's a lulu combined with a for profit health insurance industry that wouldn't write me a policy for any price.

Every dime had to be saved for the next catastrophe, which always came.

[Yonnie3]

8. Point?

I'm not sure which point you mean. I didn't mean to come across as being critical of you.

I lost my decent paying employment in 2004, in the midst of cancer surgeries and treatments. When the Cobra ran out I found a health insurance policy that cost more than I could earn. I got some help from the Trade Act, but I spent down my severance and savings until Obamacare came along. It was tough. Every time I was close to getting a new job with benefits, I got the cold shoulder. I'm convinced that the employers were somehow checking if they could insure me cheaply. I never got a full time job again.

Now, I have a small pension, medicare and social security but after this election I'm worried.