Another weak U.S. jobs report may be ahead, JPM data suggests
Dave Weigel Retweeted
can't be, they threw over 9 million people off the UI rolls on Sept 6, employment is sure to go through the roof
September 20, 2021
4:46 PM EDT
Last Updated 19 hours ago
Business
Another weak U.S. jobs report may be ahead, JPM data suggests
By Dan Burns
3 minute read
Sept 20 (Reuters) - A JPMorgan model that came closer than virtually all other forecasts in predicting last month's big U.S. employment report shortfall is pointing to another weak jobs number for September as consumers appear to have dialed back their travel and leisure spending since Labor Day.
The jobs tracker created by the bank's quantitative research team, fed by a range of alternative data including Chase credit card usage and airport security check volumes, suggests that September job growth will come in at 333,000. That would be far from the kind of rebound from August's disappointing job growth of just
235,000 - the lowest total since January - that policymakers at the Federal Reserve and elsewhere are hoping for.
Ahead of the August non-farm payrolls report from the Labor Department released Sept. 3, the JPMorgan research team's model had estimated 353,000 new jobs would be added that month. That was lower than all 80 forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists that sported a median expectation of 728,000, as well as about half the 625,000 payrolls gain forecast by other economists at JPMorgan Chase.
The latest estimate from the quant team's model is down by nearly a quarter million from two weeks ago, and tracks a drop-off in consumer outlays on things like airline travel and restaurants, based on Chase credit card usage data.
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