US consumer sentiment slips in April; inflation expectations rise

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Last edited Sat Apr 13, 2024, 11:51 AM - Edit history (1)

Reuters
US consumer sentiment slips in April; inflation expectations rise

Reuters
Fri, Apr 12, 2024, 10:22 AM EDT1 min read

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment ebbed in April while inflation expectations for the next 12 months and beyond increased, a survey showed on Friday. ... The University of Michigan's preliminary reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 77.9 this month, compared to a final reading of 79.4 in March.

Since January, the sentiment index has remained within a very narrow 2.5 point range, well under the 5 points which the University of Michigan said was necessary for a statistically significant difference in readings. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a preliminary reading of 79.0.

"Overall, consumers are reserving judgment about the economy in light of the upcoming election, which, in the view of many consumers, could have a substantial impact on the trajectory of the economy," said Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu in a statement.

The survey's reading of one-year inflation expectations increased to 3.1% in April from 2.9% in March, rising just above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years before the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey's five-year inflation outlook rose to 3.0% from 2.8% in the prior month.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

[FBaggins]

1. Not great timing

I remember in previous cycles, May/June was when voter impressions of the economy would solidify. Nobody cared what Q3 numbers said (as we saw four years ago)

[progree]

2. PCE, CPI, PPI - last 3 months average and last month's, all annualized. Regular and Core

Last edited Sat Apr 13, 2024, 02:11 PM - Edit history (1)

I annualize them all to be easy to compare to each other, and to compare to the FED's 2% goal. I use the actual index values rather than the one-digit changes that are commonly reported in the media. Links to the data are with the graphs -- see bottom of post

"Regular" is the "headline" number that has "everything"

"Core" is the regular with food and energy removed (The Fed prefers this as a basis for projecting FUTURE inflation)

The "1 month" number is the change from February to March, expressed as an annualized number (for the PCE it's the change from January to February; the PCE folks don't do March until near the end of April).

3/29/24 PCE (Fed's favorite inflation measure)
      REGULAR 3 month: 3.4%, REGULAR 1 month: 4.1%; CORE 3 month: 3.5%, Core 1 month: 3.2%;
4/10/24 CPI
      REGULAR 3 month: 4.6%, REGULAR 1 month: 4.6%; CORE 3 month: 4.5%, Core 1 month: 4.4%;
4/11/24 PPI (Wholesale prices)
      REGULAR 3 month: 4.4%, REGULAR 1 month: 1.9%; CORE 3 month: 4.7%, Core 1 month: 2.5%;

For graphs, for the CPI and PCE, see https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143223421#post4

and, for the PPI: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143223987#post4

EDITED TO ADD - because I'm seeing so many mischaracterizations of recent inflation trends, I made a post of the above that displays all of the graphs, all in one post --

https://www.democraticunderground.com/111697820#post12