U.S. intelligence sees global water conflict risks rising

[OKIsItJustMe]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/22/us-climate-water-idUSBRE82L0PR20120322

[font face=Times,Times New Roman,Serif][font size=5]U.S. intelligence sees global water conflict risks rising[/font]

By Andrew Quinn
WASHINGTON | Thu Mar 22, 2012 10:36am EDT

[font size=4](Reuters) - Fresh water supplies are unlikely to keep up with global demand by 2040, increasing political instability, hobbling economic growth and endangering world food markets, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment released on Thursday.[/font]

[font size=3]The report by the office of the Director of National Intelligence said that areas including South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa will face major challenges in coping with water problems that could hinder the ability to produce food and generate energy.

The report said that a "water war" was unlikely in the next 10 years, but that the risk of conflict would grow with global water demand likely to outstrip current sustainable supplies by 40 percent by 2030.

"Beyond 10 years we did see the risk increasing," a senior U.S. intelligence official told reporters. "It depends upon what individual states do and what actions are taken right now to work water management issues between states."

…[/font][/font]

http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/ODNI%20Releases%20Global%20Water%20Security%20ICA.pdf

[font face=Times,Times New Roman,Serif][font size=4]…

The Bottom Line: During the next 10 years, many regions will experience water challenges – shortages, poor water quality, or floods – that will increase the risk of instability and state failure, increase regional tensions, and distract them from working with the United States on important U.S. policy objectives. Between now and 2040, fresh water availability will not keep up with demand absent more effective management of water resources. Water problems will hinder the ability of key countries to produce food and generate energy, posing a risk to global food markets and hobbling economic growth. As a result of demographic and economic development pressures, North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia will face major challenges coping with water problems.

Key Judgment A: We assess that during the next 10 years, water problems will contribute to instability in states important to U.S. national security interests. Water shortages, poor water quality, and floods by themselves are unlikely to result in state failure. However, water problems – when combined with poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutions – contribute to social disruptions that can result in state failure.

Key Judgment B: We assess that a water-related state-on-state conflict is unlikely during the next 10 years. Historically, water tensions have led to more water-sharing agreements than violent conflicts. However, we judge that as water shortages become more acute beyond the next 10 years, water in shared basins will increasingly be used as leverage; the use of water as a weapon or to further terrorist objectives also will become more likely beyond 10 years.

Key Judgment C: We judge that during the next 10 years the depletion of groundwater supplies in some agricultural areas – owing to poor management – will pose a risk to national and global food markets.

Key Judgment D: We assess that from now through 2040 water shortages and pollution probably will harm the economic performance of important trading partners.

Key Judgment E: We judge that, from now through 2040, improved water management (e.g., pricing, allocations, and “virtual water” trade) and investments in water-related sectors (e.g., agriculture, power, and water treatment) will afford the best solutions for water problems. Because agriculture uses approximately 70 percent of the global fresh water supply, the greatest potential for relief from water scarcity will be through technology that reduces the amount of water needed for agriculture.

A full copy of the report is available online at: http://www.dni.gov/nic/ICA_Global%20Water%20Security.pdf

…[/font][/font]

[russspeakeasy]

1. Speculators will be buying the Great Lakes, etc.

[HereSince1628]

3. International aggreements largely prevent movement of GL water outside its basin.

Waukesa WI sits roughly 14 miles west of Milwaukee but outside the GL basin (surface water in Waukesa flows to the Mississippi R). Waukesha's city water supply is drawn from groundwater and exceeds safe radio-activity limits. For decades Waukesha has wanted to dilute their water with lake Michigan (surface) water to bring the contamination level down to compliance. It took years of haggling with the pact of states and provinces that controls policy to allow that to happen...now that it's possible, the cities inside the drainage see giving water to Waukesha as giving them an edge on economic development and don't really want to do it.

Unless you are a South African conglomerate looking to sell water adulterated into beer, it's unlikely that you'll be able to create more than a for-profit public utility that provides water needs inside the basin.

The states and provinces in the GL basin see that water as floating their futures and they are guarding it.

[PDJane]

2. This is why tar sands extraction and fracking are such incredible stupidity.

What the hell is wrong with us?