NOAA - Expect Annual Bleaching Events For 98% Of World's Reefs By 2050; GBR Will Not Survive

[hatrack]

The Great Barrier Reef will not survive coral bleaching if current sea temperature trends continue, according to a new report charting increases over the past three decades which blames manmade climate change for the problem.

The study found thermal stress to coral reef areas was three times more likely when its investigation finished in 2012 compared with when it began in 1985, forecasting “more frequent and more severe” bleaching through the middle of this century.

Led by researchers at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and published in Scientific Reports journal, the report projects that by 2050 more than 98% of coral reefs around the world will be afflicted by “bleaching-level thermal stress” each year. “The likelihood of the reef being able to survive through that is extremely low,” the report’s co-author, Scott Heron of the NOAA, told Guardian Australia. “If annual severe bleaching was happening across 98% of global reefs, it is very unlikely the Great Barrier Reef would be maintained.”

The report found 97% of 60,000 coral reef locations risked bleaching across the timeframe studied, with “drastic increases” expected to follow. “Coral bleaching events have become and will continue to become more frequent and severe,” it reads. Heron said that for any part of the Great Barrier Reef to remain it would need to “get lucky”, but the chances of a positive outcome were remote. “If a piano is going to fall on you, it is going to fall on you irrespective of how healthy you are,” he said.

EDIT

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/dec/09/great-barrier-reef-not-likely-to-survive-if-warming-trend-continues-says-report?utm_term=0_29c928ffb5-08fd4e986a-327786693&utm_content=buffered454&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

[ghostsinthemachine]

1. They've been talking about 2020 for years with GBR

At least ten, so this gives it another 30 years. (Nice spin huh?)

[OKIsItJustMe]

2. New research predicts the future of coral reefs under climate change

http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/news-events/press-releases/2017/new-research-predicts-the-future-of-coral-reefs-under-climate-change/

[font face=Serif][font size=5]New research predicts the future of coral reefs under climate change[/font]
[font size=4]• High-resolution predictions of annual coral bleaching can help prioritize reefs for conservation. • If current trends continue, severe bleaching will occur every year on 99% of the world’s coral reefs within this century • More ambitious emissions[/font]

January 04, 2017

[font size=3]January 5, 2017 – New climate model projections of the world’s coral reefs reveal which reefs will be hit first by annual coral bleaching, an event that poses the gravest threat to one of the Earth’s most important ecosystems.

These high-resolution projections, based on global climate models, predict when and where annual coral bleaching will occur. The projections show that reefs in Taiwan and around the Turks and Caicos archipelago will be among the world’s first to experience annual bleaching. Other reefs, like those off the coast of Bahrain, in Chile and in French Polynesia, will be hit decades later, according to research recently published in the journal Nature Scientific Reports.

“These predictions are a treasure trove for those who are fighting to protect one of the world’s most magnificent and important ecosystems from the ravages of climate change,” said Erik Solheim, head of UN Environment. “They allow conservationists and governments to prioritize the protection of reefs that may still have time to acclimatize to our warming seas. The projections show us where we still have time to act before it’s too late.”

If current trends continue and the world fails to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, then severe bleaching will occur every year on 99 per cent of the world’s reefs within the century, according to the study.

…[/font][/font]

http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep39666