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Related: About this forum2016 Edges 1998 as Warmest Year on Record
http://www.newswise.com/articles/2016-edges-1998-as-warmest-year-on-record[font face=Serif][font size=5]2016 Edges 1998 as Warmest Year on Record[/font]
Article ID: 667130
Released: 4-Jan-2017 10:05 AM EST
Source Newsroom: University of Alabama Huntsville
[font size=3]
Globally, 2016 edged out 1998 by +0.02 C to become the warmest year in the 38-year satellite temperature record, according to Dr. John Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. Because the margin of error is about 0.10 C, this would technically be a statistical tie, with a higher probability that 2016 was warmer than 1998. The main difference was the extra warmth in the Northern Hemisphere in 2016 compared to 1998.
Year GL NH SH TROP
2016 +0.505 +0.61 +0.40 +0.61 C
1998 +0.484 +0.51 +0.46 +0.68 C
The question is, does 2016s record warmth mean anything scientifically? Christy said. I suppose the answer is, not really. Both 1998 and 2016 are anomalies, outliers, and in both cases we have an easily identifiable cause for that anomaly: A powerful El Niño Pacific Ocean warming event. While El Niños are natural climatic events, they also are transient. In the study of climate, we are more concerned with accurately identifying long-term temperature trends than we are with short-term spikes and dips, especially when those spikes and dips have easily identified natural causes.
Some records catch our attention because we usually struggle to cope with rare events. For example, the Sept.-Nov. record heat and dryness in the southeastern U.S. (now a thing of the past) will be remembered more than the probability that 2016 edged 1998 in global temperatures. So, from the long-term perspective, 2016s record may be less noteworthy than where the month-to-month temperature settles out between warming and cooling events.
[/font][/font]
Article ID: 667130
Released: 4-Jan-2017 10:05 AM EST
Source Newsroom: University of Alabama Huntsville
[font size=3]
Globally, 2016 edged out 1998 by +0.02 C to become the warmest year in the 38-year satellite temperature record, according to Dr. John Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. Because the margin of error is about 0.10 C, this would technically be a statistical tie, with a higher probability that 2016 was warmer than 1998. The main difference was the extra warmth in the Northern Hemisphere in 2016 compared to 1998.
Year GL NH SH TROP
2016 +0.505 +0.61 +0.40 +0.61 C
1998 +0.484 +0.51 +0.46 +0.68 C
The question is, does 2016s record warmth mean anything scientifically? Christy said. I suppose the answer is, not really. Both 1998 and 2016 are anomalies, outliers, and in both cases we have an easily identifiable cause for that anomaly: A powerful El Niño Pacific Ocean warming event. While El Niños are natural climatic events, they also are transient. In the study of climate, we are more concerned with accurately identifying long-term temperature trends than we are with short-term spikes and dips, especially when those spikes and dips have easily identified natural causes.
Some records catch our attention because we usually struggle to cope with rare events. For example, the Sept.-Nov. record heat and dryness in the southeastern U.S. (now a thing of the past) will be remembered more than the probability that 2016 edged 1998 in global temperatures. So, from the long-term perspective, 2016s record may be less noteworthy than where the month-to-month temperature settles out between warming and cooling events.
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2016 Edges 1998 as Warmest Year on Record (Original Post)
OKIsItJustMe
Jan 2017
OP
Cicada
(4,533 posts)1. This is troposphere only and error prone
These satellite measures of atmosphere are limited - the air up there holds little heat. Also the satellites tend to drift and in the past the temps had to be corrected because the drift took them into cooler areas.
hatrack
(59,587 posts)2. John Christy, making climate change boo-boos vanish since the late 1980s . . .
.
eppur_se_muova
(36,269 posts)3. Yep. AL's official Chief Climatologist, actually Chief Denialist. nt