Big Drop in CSU's Atlantic Hurricane Outlook; Quiet Atlantic, Active Pacific
Chiller-than-usual waters in the eastern North Atlantic have prodded the forecast group based at Colorado State University to reduce the amount of tropical cyclone activity they project for 2018 from the values predicted only one month ago. In their July update issued on Monday, CSU’s Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Michael Bell are now calling for a total of 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane for the season, including the named storm we’ve already had (Alberto). This is a major downgrade from the outlook issued on May 31, which had been calling for 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The amount of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), which takes into account both intensity and duration of each cyclone, is now projected to be 60 for the Atlantic season— only about two-thirds of its typical value for the period 1981-2010.
“I don't really see any way that this season ends up active at this point,” said Klotzbach in a Twitter message. “The Atlantic remains colder than normal, and the odds of El Niño look to be increasing too. We're also already starting to see stronger than normal wind shear in the Caribbean.”
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/big-drop-CSUs-Atlantic-hurricane-outlook-Quiet-Atlantic-Active-Pacific