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Global Temperature in 2018 and Beyond -- James Hansen et al.
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2019/20190206_Temperature2018.pdfGlobal Temperature in 2018 and Beyond
06 February 2019
James Hansen, Makiko Satoa, Reto Ruedy, Gavin A. Schmidt, Ken Lob
Abstract. Global surface temperature in 2018 was the 4th highest in the period of instrumental measurements in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis. The 2018 global temperature was +1.1°C (~2°F) warmer than in the 1880-1920 base period; we take that base period as an estimate of ‘pre-industrial’ temperature. The four warmest years in the GISS record all occur in the past four years, and the 10 warmest years are all in the 21st century. We also discuss the prospects for near-term global temperature change.
Update of the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) global temperature analysis (GISTEMP)1,2 (Fig. 1), finds 2018 to be the 4th warmest year in the instrumental record. More detail is available at http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ and http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature. Figures shown here are available from Makiko Sato on the latter web site.
We use 1880-1920 as baseline, i.e., as the zero-point for temperature anomalies, in part because it is the earliest period with substantial global coverage of instrumental measurements. Global temperature in 1880-1920 should approximate ‘preindustrial’ temperature, because the small warming from human-made greenhouse gases in that period tends to be offset by unusually high volcanic activity then3.
The four warmest years in the GISS record are the past four years, 2015-2018. Figure 2 compares the temperature anomalies for each of these years relative to the 1951-1980 base period. We use this recent base period for global maps because it allows good global coverage, including data for Antarctica.
…
06 February 2019
James Hansen, Makiko Satoa, Reto Ruedy, Gavin A. Schmidt, Ken Lob
Abstract. Global surface temperature in 2018 was the 4th highest in the period of instrumental measurements in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis. The 2018 global temperature was +1.1°C (~2°F) warmer than in the 1880-1920 base period; we take that base period as an estimate of ‘pre-industrial’ temperature. The four warmest years in the GISS record all occur in the past four years, and the 10 warmest years are all in the 21st century. We also discuss the prospects for near-term global temperature change.
Update of the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) global temperature analysis (GISTEMP)1,2 (Fig. 1), finds 2018 to be the 4th warmest year in the instrumental record. More detail is available at http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ and http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature. Figures shown here are available from Makiko Sato on the latter web site.
We use 1880-1920 as baseline, i.e., as the zero-point for temperature anomalies, in part because it is the earliest period with substantial global coverage of instrumental measurements. Global temperature in 1880-1920 should approximate ‘preindustrial’ temperature, because the small warming from human-made greenhouse gases in that period tends to be offset by unusually high volcanic activity then3.
The four warmest years in the GISS record are the past four years, 2015-2018. Figure 2 compares the temperature anomalies for each of these years relative to the 1951-1980 base period. We use this recent base period for global maps because it allows good global coverage, including data for Antarctica.
…