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Restarting nuclear talks with Iran: Old problems, some new hopes
http://thebulletin.org/web-edition/op-eds/restarting-nuclear-talks-iran-old-problems-some-new-hopes
Restarting nuclear talks with Iran: Old problems, some new hopes
By Ivan Oelrich | 19 April 2012
<snip>
There is much that Iran could do to reassure the rest of the world. The highest priority is to stop any further enrichment to 20 percent uranium 235. Iran already has enough material to top up the research reactor in Tehran. The existing 20 percent material should be converted quickly into fuel elements. Iran claims it can do this, but other countries -- France, Russia, or the United States -- could do the job faster and cheaper. Similarly, Iran could limit its inventory of all enriched uranium, perhaps by exporting it to Russia as it is produced, where it would be incorporated into fuel elements destined for the power reactor at Bushehr. Iran could also convert its enriched uranium from hexafluoride form, which easily allows further enrichment, to the oxide form used in reactors, which is impossible to enrich further without additional chemical conversion.
<snip>
While there is no single smoking gun that proves beyond doubt that Iran has had an active weapons research program, a long list of highly incriminating evidence suggests that Iran has explored weapons technology in the past. Even so, it is unrealistic at this point to expect Iran to admit publicly that it has been lying all this time. The most the world can hope for is that Iran will quietly open its books and provide real, but unpublicized, assurances that any weapons research program is history. And if the enrichment program can be addressed, possible weapons research becomes more of a theoretical concern in any case.
What the P5+1 will bring to the table has been almost completely ignored. The standoff is presented as Iran's being in the wrong and having to comply with international demands to have sanctions lifted. But the big powers also have to offer Iran some sort of positive incentives, if for no other reason than to let Iranian negotiators meet political demands back home. Specifically, the P5+1 should sketch out how Iran could meet its claimed nuclear energy needs within new international arrangements. The P5+1 must quickly determine whether Iran is stalling for time. If not and the P5+1 therefore seems to have the upper hand because of sanctions, then it can afford to be a bit magnanimous, tactfully ignoring why Iran may be at the table at Baghdad and allowing some face-saving compromises. There seems to be a developing consensus that limited Iranian uranium enrichment will be tolerated, within some tighter overall control regime. One approach that could benefit all sides is to have the P5+1 essentially call Iran's bluff, take at face value Iran's official claims that its program is peaceful, and then act to integrate the program into the global nuclear economy. This would undercut Iran's claims of a need for nuclear autonomy, make diversion more difficult, and logically keep some processing steps outside the country.
<snip>
Worries about Iran's nuclear program go back a half century to the reign of the Shah. And Iran is simply the most glaring case of the inevitable ambiguity created by the inherent potential for both civil and military uses of nuclear technology. As long as nuclear power is with us, the proliferation threat can only be managed, not solved, but the recent meeting in Istanbul raises some hopes that progress is within sight, at least in the case of Iran.
Restarting nuclear talks with Iran: Old problems, some new hopes
By Ivan Oelrich | 19 April 2012
Article Highlights
- Although details of the Iranian nuclear negotiations are scarce, Tehran seems to be taking the tightening of sanctions – especially a possible boycott of Iranian oil -- seriously.
- To reduce world suspicions of its intent, Iran needs to make concessions on its uranium enrichment practices and quietly provide real but unpublicized assurances that any weapons research program is history.
- To provide Iran political cover, world powers should consider accepting Tehran's claims that its nuclear program is peaceful, integrating the program into the global nuclear economy, and undercutting Tehran's attempts to retain nuclear autonomy.
- Although details of the Iranian nuclear negotiations are scarce, Tehran seems to be taking the tightening of sanctions – especially a possible boycott of Iranian oil -- seriously.
- To reduce world suspicions of its intent, Iran needs to make concessions on its uranium enrichment practices and quietly provide real but unpublicized assurances that any weapons research program is history.
- To provide Iran political cover, world powers should consider accepting Tehran's claims that its nuclear program is peaceful, integrating the program into the global nuclear economy, and undercutting Tehran's attempts to retain nuclear autonomy.
<snip>
There is much that Iran could do to reassure the rest of the world. The highest priority is to stop any further enrichment to 20 percent uranium 235. Iran already has enough material to top up the research reactor in Tehran. The existing 20 percent material should be converted quickly into fuel elements. Iran claims it can do this, but other countries -- France, Russia, or the United States -- could do the job faster and cheaper. Similarly, Iran could limit its inventory of all enriched uranium, perhaps by exporting it to Russia as it is produced, where it would be incorporated into fuel elements destined for the power reactor at Bushehr. Iran could also convert its enriched uranium from hexafluoride form, which easily allows further enrichment, to the oxide form used in reactors, which is impossible to enrich further without additional chemical conversion.
<snip>
While there is no single smoking gun that proves beyond doubt that Iran has had an active weapons research program, a long list of highly incriminating evidence suggests that Iran has explored weapons technology in the past. Even so, it is unrealistic at this point to expect Iran to admit publicly that it has been lying all this time. The most the world can hope for is that Iran will quietly open its books and provide real, but unpublicized, assurances that any weapons research program is history. And if the enrichment program can be addressed, possible weapons research becomes more of a theoretical concern in any case.
What the P5+1 will bring to the table has been almost completely ignored. The standoff is presented as Iran's being in the wrong and having to comply with international demands to have sanctions lifted. But the big powers also have to offer Iran some sort of positive incentives, if for no other reason than to let Iranian negotiators meet political demands back home. Specifically, the P5+1 should sketch out how Iran could meet its claimed nuclear energy needs within new international arrangements. The P5+1 must quickly determine whether Iran is stalling for time. If not and the P5+1 therefore seems to have the upper hand because of sanctions, then it can afford to be a bit magnanimous, tactfully ignoring why Iran may be at the table at Baghdad and allowing some face-saving compromises. There seems to be a developing consensus that limited Iranian uranium enrichment will be tolerated, within some tighter overall control regime. One approach that could benefit all sides is to have the P5+1 essentially call Iran's bluff, take at face value Iran's official claims that its program is peaceful, and then act to integrate the program into the global nuclear economy. This would undercut Iran's claims of a need for nuclear autonomy, make diversion more difficult, and logically keep some processing steps outside the country.
<snip>
Worries about Iran's nuclear program go back a half century to the reign of the Shah. And Iran is simply the most glaring case of the inevitable ambiguity created by the inherent potential for both civil and military uses of nuclear technology. As long as nuclear power is with us, the proliferation threat can only be managed, not solved, but the recent meeting in Istanbul raises some hopes that progress is within sight, at least in the case of Iran.
Author Bio
Ivan Oelrich
An independent defense analyst, Oelrich was the former vice president of the Strategic Security Program at the Federation of American Scientists. Previously, he worked at the Institute for Defense Analyses, Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government, the Office of Technology Assessment, and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency.
Ivan Oelrich
An independent defense analyst, Oelrich was the former vice president of the Strategic Security Program at the Federation of American Scientists. Previously, he worked at the Institute for Defense Analyses, Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government, the Office of Technology Assessment, and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency.