Analysts - US Not Even Close To Hitting Paris Targets; Outcome Range - 12-19% Cuts; Target - 26-28%

[hatrack]

(Rhodium Group) – For the past five years, Rhodium has provided an independent annual assessment of US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and progress towards achieving the country’s climate goals. Given the current state and federal policy landscape and range of potential energy market dynamics on the horizon, we find that the US is on track to reduce emissions 13% to 16% below 2005 levels by 2020. This puts the US potentially out of reach of its Copenhagen Accord target of a 17% reduction by 2020, with little room for policy to affect outcomes in the next 18 months. Looking ahead to 2025, the US is on track to achieve reductions anywhere from 12% to 19% below 2005 levels absent major policy changes—a far cry from its Paris Agreement pledge to reduce emissions 26% to 28%. Taking into account additional uncertainty in the direction and pace of US economic growth, we project 2025 emission reductions as small as 11% below 2005 levels, or as great as 21%.

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Transportation emissions decline modestly through 2025—even if the cost of owning an electric vehicle falls dramatically—as consumers continue to favor larger, higher-emitting vehicles.

Due to sustained low oil prices over the last half decade, Americans are driving more and buying larger vehicles. This trend is expected to continue through the next decade if oil prices remain below $55 per barrel. Cheaper and more plentiful electric vehicle (EV) options could counterbalance this effect, but the impact is minor. Even with the most optimistic estimates of EV battery cost declines, in 2025 these vehicles would represent just 16% of all light-duty sales and transportation emissions would fall by only 12% below 2005 levels. More moderate EV cost reductions lead to EVs capturing only 6% of total sales in 2025, putting transportation emission reductions at the low end of our potential range at just 8% below 2005 levels.

Cheap, plentiful natural gas may also be a liability for emissions from industry and buildings.

Although industrial emissions have fallen since 2005, that trend will reverse as low-cost natural gas bolsters more activity in energy-intensive industries, including steel, cement, chemicals, and refineries. Industrial emissions climb highest when natural gas is cheap, rising 7% from 2018 levels by 2025. Conversely, if natural gas gets more expensive, industrial emissions grow by only 1% in the same timeframe. If the natural gas boom in the US continues, and the Trump administration is successful in walking back Obama-era regulation, the oil and gas sector could see a nearly 30% increase in methane emissions from today’s levels by 2025. In 2025, emissions in the buildings sector fall 3% to 8% from 2005 levels, depending primarily on natural gas and oil prices. Emission reductions level off by the mid-2020s.

There is a narrow and shrinking window for state and federal policy to play a role by 2025.

Since our last Taking Stock report, the Trump administration has continued to move forward with its agenda to dismantle Obama-era climate regulations, with federal Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards the latest to succumb. Two major decisions are still in limbo involving non-carbon dioxide (CO2) gases: Obama-era efforts to reduce methane from oil and gas production; and plans to decrease hydrofluorocarbon (HFCs) emissions through both federal standards and participation in the Kigali Amendment. If these remaining policies are not implemented, overall US emissions in 2025 could be 58-78 million metric tons (MMt) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) higher than today, or about 1.0% to 1.4% of net GHG emissions in that year. This uptick would take place despite current efforts by states to fill the gap.

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https://desdemonadespair.net/2019/07/taking-stock-2019-u-s-on-track-to-miss-paris-agreement-climate-goal-by-wide-margin.html

[progree]

1. And going in the wrong direction, I might inconveniently add. U.S. 2017 to 2018: +3.1%

https://news.yahoo.com/global-co2-emissions-hit-record-120010006.html
Global CO2 Emissions Hit a Record High Last Year. These Countries Are to Blame, Radhika Marya
Fortune April 22, 2019

(Annual CO2 emissions by the top 10 emitting countries in short tons of CO2. And their corresponding per-capita. 2017..

From 2017 to 2018: World increased 1.7%, U.S. +3.1%, China +2.5%, Europe -1.3%, rest of world +1.1% .

Another graph: shows 36.5 Tons of CO2 from fossil fuels in 2018 <-that's what it says. See below where it's probably 36.5 Gigatons CO2. The graph is from 1990 to 2018. with breakdowns coal-fired generation, other coal use, and fossil fuels other than coal. Coal from coal-fired generation is close to its ~2014 peak, I'd say equal. Total coal though is below the ~2014 peak. With source EIA

((Remember that China is manufacturing the products we consume)). Another source: tons of CO2 = 3.67 X tons of Carbon ),

energy-related carbon dioxide emissions worldwide went up by 1.7% last year, hitting a record high, according to the International Energy Agency. It’s the largest rate of growth seen since 2013. While emissions declined in Europe, they were up in big economies like the U.S., China, and India. Coal, especially in Asia, played a significant role in the increase. At the same time, it’s worth noting that according to 2017 data, the U.S. still produces twice as much carbon dioxide per capita as China and nearly nine times as much as India

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See this too: https://www.co2.earth/global-co2-emissions