Nature Communications: 6% Chance Of Blue-Ocean Arctic Even If Paris Nations Hit 1.5C Target
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Published by scientists from South Korea, Australia, and the United States, the new research appears in this week’s issue of Nature Communications and offers an ominous forecast for climate advocates. Using 31 different climate models, the experts found that there is at least a 6% probability that summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean will disappear in a scenario long cited as the most optimistic: limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
That increase is the one recommended as an advised threshold by the Paris Agreement. According to the new findings, the higher temperature increase of 2 degrees Celsius Arctic summer sea ice could have a 28% chance of disappearing.
Notably, that still leaves a decent chance of ensuring ice remains in the Arctic. However, experts increasingly worry that limiting warming below 2 degrees Celsius is unlikely. And recent reports have underscored that dramatic and urgent action is required to avert catastrophic climate impacts.
Moreover, this week’s study highlights the need to establish what level of warming would bring forth an ice-free Arctic — a scenario in which there would be no white mass of ice to reflect sunlight and maintain cooler ocean temperatures. The less sea ice there is to reflect the heat, the more warming is likely to occur. While the researchers note that Arctic sea ice is all but guaranteed to disappear in a situation involving more than 2 degrees Celsius of warming, the potential for such a melting at lower temperatures also remains cause for alarm.
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https://thinkprogress.org/even-meeting-the-goals-of-the-paris-agreement-might-not-save-the-arctic-60984e7d9cbb/