Not One Oil Major Is Paris-Compliant; Big Oil's Current Projects Will Take The Planet Past 1.5C

[hatrack]

EDIT

The following table summarises recently-approved projects at the asset level, including European majors – Shell, BP, Total and Equinor.



Last year, all of the major oil companies sanctioned projects that fall outside a “well below 2 degrees” budget on cost grounds. These will not deliver adequate returns in a low-carbon world. Examples include Shell’s $13bn LNG Canada project and BP, Total, ExxonMobil and Equinor’s Zinia 2 project in Angola. We highlight $50bn of recently sanctioned projects across the oil and gas industry that fail the Paris alignment test by a margin.

This includes the large European companies that are doing the most to reassure investors that they are responsive to climate concerns – BP, Shell, Total and Equinor. The majors also hold a number of projects targeting approval this year which don’t fit in a Paris-compliant world. Examples include Total’s assets in Uganda, and various projects in Brazil. Some have already been given a final investment decision, e.g. BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil and Equinor’s ACG project in Azerbaijan.

No new oil sands projects fit within a Paris-compliant world. Despite this, ExxonMobil sanctioned the $2.6bn Aspen project last year – the first new oil sands project in 5 years. Indeed, only a handful fit within a business-as-usual world of missed climate targets; industry growth expectations look optimistic. Several US shale specialists have portfolios that are entirely out of the budget. Their relatively homogenous cost structures puts them in an “all or nothing” position – substantially all in if the world misses Paris commitments, but all out if temperatures are limited to “well below 2 degrees”.

The oil and gas in projects that have already been sanctioned will take the world past 1.5ºC, assuming carbon capture and storage remains sub-scale.


EDIT

https://www.carbontracker.org/reports/breaking-the-habit/

[The_jackalope]

1. The CO2 already in the atmosphere will eventually take the world past 4C

Assuming we stop emitting any more CO2 today...

[hatrack]

2. But what I like about this is that the oil companies ALONE can finish the job!

You gotta hand it to that get-up-and-go, scrappy bootstrapping energy so characteristic of Tool Monkeys.