New Models Show Earth Warming (All Together Now!) Faster Than Expected - 7C By 2100
Greenhouse gases thrust into the atmosphere mainly by burning fossil fuels are warming Earth’s surface more quickly than previously understood, according to new climate models set to replace those used in current UN projections, scientists said Tuesday. By 2100, average temperatures could rise 7.0 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels if carbon emissions continue unabated, separate models from two leading research centres in France showed.
That is up to two degrees higher than the equivalent scenario in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change’s (IPCC) 2014 benchmark 5th Assessment Report. The new calculations also suggest that the Paris Agreement goals of capping global warming at “well below” two degrees, and 1.5C if possible, will be challenging at best, the scientists said.
“With our two models, we see that the scenario known as SSP1 2.6—which normally allows us to stay under 2C—doesn’t quite get us there,” Olivier Boucher, head of the Institute Pierre Simon Laplace Climate Modelling Centre in Paris, told AFP.
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A core finding of the new models is that increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere will warm Earth’s surface more—and more easily—than earlier calculations had suggested. If confirmed, this higher “equilibrium climate sensitivity”, or ECS, means humanity’s carbon budget—our total emissions allowance—is likely to shrink, Other models developed independently have come to the same unsettling conclusion, Boucher confirmed. “The most respected ones—from the United States, and Britain’s Met Office—also show a higher ECS” than the previous generation of models, he said.
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https://desdemonadespair.net/2019/09/earth-warming-more-quickly-than-thought-new-climate-models-show-we-have-better-models-now-they-have-better-resolution-and-they-represent-current-climate-trends-more-accurately.html
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