EIA Projects Nearly 50% Increase In Global Energy Consumption By 2050

[hatrack]

3 January 2020 (EIA) – In its newly released International Energy Outlook 2019 (IEO2019) Reference case, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that world energy consumption will grow by nearly 50 percent between 2018 and 2050. Most of this growth comes from countries that are not in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and this growth is focused in regions where strong economic growth is driving demand, particularly in Asia.

EIA’s IEO2019 assesses long-term world energy markets for 16 regions of the world, divided according to OECD and non-OECD membership. Projections for the United States in IEO2019 are consistent with those released in the Annual Energy Outlook 2019.

The industrial sector, which includes refining, mining, manufacturing, agriculture, and construction, accounts for the largest share of energy consumption of any end-use sector—more than half of end-use energy consumption throughout the projection period. World industrial sector energy use increases by more than 30% between 2018 and 2050 as consumption of goods increases. By 2050, global industrial energy consumption reaches about 315 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu).



Transportation energy consumption increases by nearly 40% between 2018 and 2050. This increase is largely driven by non-OECD countries, where transportation energy consumption increases nearly 80% between 2018 and 2050. Energy consumption for both personal travel and freight movement grows in these countries much more rapidly than in many OECD countries.

Energy consumed in the buildings sector, which includes residential and commercial structures, increases by 65% between 2018 and 2050, from 91 quadrillion to 139 quadrillion Btu. Rising income, urbanization, and increased access to electricity lead to rising demand for energy.

The growth in end-use consumption results in electricity generation increasing 79% between 2018 and 2050. Electricity use grows in the residential sector as rising population and standards of living in non-OECD countries increase the demand for appliances and personal equipment. Electricity use also increases in the transportation sector as plug-in electric vehicles enter the fleet and electricity use for rail expands.

EDIT

https://desdemonadespair.net/2020/01/eia-projects-nearly-50-percent-increase-in-world-energy-usage-by-2050-led-by-growth-in-asia-carbon-dioxide-emissions-to-grow-from-all-three-fossil-fuel-sources.html

[Boomer]

1. Root cause....

too many people.

[MousePlayingDaffodil]

2. Well, if that's what you believe . . .

. . . what are you going to do about it, hmm?

[Boomer]

3. I've done my bit

I'm childless.

[hatrack]

5. Likewise . . .

Getting a PHEV doesn't help much by comparison, but it does save on gas costs.

[The_jackalope]

10. Same here

Had the big V over 30 years ago. 7.7 billion little miracles are enough.

[hunter]

4. We're toast.

It's a problem with solutions, but very few are willing to accept them, even those who recognize the reality of global warming.

Humans have to quit fossil fuels and birth control has to be freely available to everyone. Full stop.

[Calculating]

6. More than free birth control is needed

We need a global and enforced one child policy. Anything else isn't gonna cut it. The world is overpopulated NOW. The only reason we're getting away with it is because many of the people live in 3rd world countries and don't have the resource/energy footprint that we do. As they elevate their standards of living they're all gonna want their own cars/appliances/etc. We either need to lower standards of living in developed countries (People will NEVER accept this) or we need to have a lot fewer people. Pick one. Times like this I'm just glad I have no children, so I can just spectate the situation in a detached sort of way.

[Boomer]

7. Population control is the 3rd rail of climate change solutions

People go ballistic at the very notion. And China -- one of the most autocratic nations on the face of the planet -- tried the one-child policy and it was a train wreck for them. The Western world, which is far less obedient to central authority, would never accept those limits and the loss of personal freedom.

And beyond personal choice, our capitalist system is based on the Ponzi scheme of an ever expanding market. We don't conceptually accept that this planet is finite and that the resources are finite. Falling population numbers is seen as a problem, not a solution. A shrinking economy is anathema, deliberately contracting our usage of everything is anathema. Our financial systems would collapse, so politicians will never willingly promote a paradigm built on sustainability and -- even more importantly -- contraction.

It's going to collapse anyway, of course, because it's so obviously NOT sustainable, but instead of controlling the descent, we're just going to wait it out to the bitter end.

[Calculating]

8. Yes, our demise is woven into our economic system

As I've heard before, the ideology of infinite growth is the ideology of cancer. We live in a finite world, idk how people can possibly think infinite growth will ever work. I guess the science types think we'll colonize space, but I really don't see that happening in a meaningful sense.

[Massacure]

9. On the bright side, fertility rates generally drop as countries develop.

Of the 76 countries with fertility rates under 2.0 children per woman, most of them are developed nations. The 25 nations with the highest fertility rate. Of the 34 nations with fertility rates above 4.0 children per woman, 32 of them are in Africa; the other two are Iraq and Afghanistan.

[bloom]

12. It's way past time we all (those of us with extra) lower our 'standards'

I think people are waking up. Some people.

Wearing used clothes is starting to be a 'thing' - even among the 'well to do'.

Living in smaller houses.

Flying less.

People need to recognize the absurdity of using motor boats 'for fun.' Of driving around on any gas-fueled vehicle 'for fun.'

One of these days.

[NickB79]

11. This is why all our renewable installs to date haven't moved the carbon needle

We can't start to replace fossil fuels with renewables while demand for energy globally is exploding and eating up all the gains being made. At best, we're treading water.