Sea levels are rising faster than most pessimistic forecasts

[sandensea]

Climate change is causing oceans to rise quicker than scientists’ most pessimistic forecasts, resulting in earlier flood risks to coastal economies already struggling to adapt.

The revised estimates published Tuesday in Ocean Science impact the two-fifths of the Earth’s population who live near coastlines. Insured property worth trillions of dollars could face even greater danger from floods, superstorms and tidal surges.

The research suggests that countries will have to rein in their greenhouse gas emissions even more than expected to keep sea levels in check.

“It means our carbon budget is even more depleted,” said Aslak Grinsted, a geophysicist at the University of Copenhagen who co-authored the research.

Economies need to slash an additional 200 billion metric tons of carbon — equivalent to about five years of global emissions — to remain within the thresholds set by previous forecasts, he said.

At: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-02/sea-levels-are-rising-faster-than-most-pessimistic-forecasts

Computer generated model of what Mar-a-Lago, and surrounding Palm Beach, FL, might look like by 2100 under a worst-case sea level rise scenario.

Revised estimates published Tuesday in Ocean Science suggest sea levels are on course to meet - or exceed - these projections.

[TheRealNorth]

1. On the plus side....

FL will be less relevant in presidential elections once it becomes a saltwater marsh.

[sandensea]

3. True. Every cloud has a silver lining - but WHAT a cloud.

I can't help but think of the millions of lives that will be upended due to sea levels devouring coastal metro areas - and not just in the U.S.

There must be north of a billion people worldwide who live in metro areas now, that will likely be underwater by 2100.

This includes entire countries such as the Netherlands - and, most notably, Bangladesh (165 million people).

God help us all.

[Oldem]

2. This might soon be a catastrophe

that makes all our political turmoil seem trivial. OTOH, a significant percentage of our population has been able to ignore the effects of Covid. Maybe there'll be conspiracy theories that inundated costal population centers are the targets of Jewish space lasers. On the bright side, Mar a Lago could be flooded out.

[sandensea]

4. Absolutely.

There must be north of a billion people worldwide who live in metro areas now, that will likely be underwater by 2100.

It's impossible to predict how this will play out - but it can't be good.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

5. I know I will be smugly condescending to all those

who thought they were winning some sort of lottery by moving to Florida.


I live in New Mexico. At 7,000 feet.

[sandensea]

6. Besides which

the real lottery, would've been moving to Coastal California. In 1995.

People often think of Palm Beach. But most of Florida, as you know, has a low per-square-foot housing value - mostly because the weather, frankly, is so awful.

Unless someone's idea of nice weather is sweltering in Latin America-style heat and humidity - plus mosquitoes the size of a cell phone and enough corruption to make you think you were in Latin America. Small wonder most people seem to be in a bad mood there.

Winters are very nice there though - but's that it!

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

9. Meh.

Even in 1995 Coastal California was very expensive. Very.

I've long been aware that the climate of Florida leaves a lot to be desired. I have never quite understood those who think that so long as you don't have to shovel snow off your car in the winter, all is good.

I've lived in snow climates. I've lived in non snow climates. And honestly, there is a fuck of a lot more to quality of life than needing to shovel snow off your car in the middle of winter.

[sandensea]

10. Well said.

Snow, you get used to.

Having the biggest-ever Medicare fraudster be elected governor - and then senator - you never do (or should).

[NickB79]

7. Isn't New Mexico facing extreme drought though?

Lack of water may be just as destructive as too much

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

8. True. I thought long and hard about the water

issue before moving here.

I have lived in Tucson and Phoenix in two different parts of my life. I am very aware of the water issues. What's nice about Santa Fe is that we collectively use about half of the water that the rest of the state uses. No in ground pools here, at least not since 1996. No lawns with a watering system. Okay, so the plants I have do have a drip system, but my water bill is still very low. And I keep on trying to convince my yard guy that we should stop watering most of my plants.

On a separate, but related note, I have a book that is more or less "Tucson, Now and Then" and is a compilation of photos taken in the 1930s (I think, I can't find the book right now) and again in the 1990s. What stands out to me is how much higher the water table was in the earlier photos. Scary, actually.

I am VERY aware of the water issue. If you have not already read Cadillac Desert by Marc Reiser, I highly recommend it. I actually read it when it first came out, when I was living in Phoenix, and it scared the crap out of me. I've read several other books since then on this topic. Basically, there are far too many humans on the planet. And too many of us live in unsustainable places.

[FBaggins]

11. An incredibly inaccurate title

One would assume from the title that the article (and the study that inspired it) would compare actual sea levels to earlier model projections. Showing that earlier forecasts were actually overly optomistic.