Today, Lake Powell will drop below 30% of capacity (currently 30.01%)

[OnlinePoker]

Last edited Mon Sep 27, 2021, 06:02 PM - Edit history (1)

The last time it was this low was April 13, 1969, when the reservoir was still being filled.

http://lakepowell.water-data.com/
http://lakepowell.water-data.com/index2.php?as_of=1969-04-13

On edit: I just looked it up and NOAA are forecasting a 70-80% chance of La Nina reforming this winter. That means the likelihood of the southwest drought persisting into next year is high again. No relief in sight for Lake Powell or Mead (which is only at 34.8% of capacity).

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[Moostache]

1. People who depend on the water may want to get out

The entire charade of living in the desert is going to crash and burn the region very soon.

I would get out while the getting is good because this has no plan b....

[hunter]

3. It will hit agricultural users dependent upon cheap, often subsidized, water the hardest.

Water still flows uphill to money, and urban users still have money.

Cities like Phoenix or Las Vegas are not going to dry up and blow away in the dust. They'll probably end up buying Colorado river water that California cities and farms are now entitled to, in effect paying California cities to switch to toilet-to-tap sewage recycling schemes and desalinization projects, and buying out or bankrupting farmers. It's already happening to a limited extent.

Whatever factory farm meat and dairy producers think, their industries are not essential to the survival of cities.

[NickB79]

4. Farming contributes $23 billion to the AZ economy

https://agriculture.az.gov/plantsproduce/what-we-grow/arizona-agriculture-growing

The cities aren't going to blow away, but the state's economy will take a major hit. Expect a flood of unemployed rural citizens to hit the cities, straining the social safety nets.

[hatrack]

5. Out of $321 billion GSP in 2020 . . . .

So, yeah, it's a hit, but not that much of a hit.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/187829/gdp-of-the-us-federal-state-of-arizona-since-1997/

[NickB79]

6. Yeah, but it has a disproportionate effect in rural areas

It's what hundreds of thousands of people rely on in rural communities to survive where the cost of living is lower.

The farms die, the small town businesses that rely on their income die. The tax base for the local school, police, fire department dry up. Residents leave, or at best their kids leave after high school. You end up with ghost towns, vast areas depopulated.

[Finishline42]

7. That's what happened in the Middle East

in countries like Syria and Iraq, drought killed off the rural lifestyle of sustainable living forcing more and more people into the cities.

How much of that dynamic led to more civil unrest?

[hatrack]

2. Blub . . . . blub . . . . blub . . . .

Wow, why weren't were warned that this was possible!!!!!