Temperature attributable mortality projections due to previously unobserved extreme heat in Europe

[NNadir]

This "comment" is here: Seasonality reversal of temperature attributable mortality projections due to previously unobserved extreme heat in Europe (*Marcos Quijal-Zamorano,Èrica Martínez-Solanas,Hicham Achebak,Desislava Petrova,Jean-Marie Robine,François R Herrmann,Xavier Rodó,Joan Ballester, Lancet, Planetary Health VOLUME 5, ISSUE 9, E573-E575, SEPTEMBER 01, 2021)

The article is open sourced, and it refers to predicted deaths through the rest of this century.

Some text:

Climate change is impacting human health. The 2020 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change1 estimates a 53·7% increase in heat-related mortality in people older than 65 years during the past 2 decades. Nowadays, most of the record-breaking temperature extremes are directly attributable to climate change,2 and these events are continuously redefining the range of observed climatological temperatures to which populations are exposed. These previously unobserved temperatures pose an additional threat to human health, as exemplified by the record-breaking heatwave in the summer of 2003, which caused a mortality excess of more than 70 000 premature deaths in Europe.3

I have referred to reference three on DU, which is from a French publication. Maybe you've heard of France. It's a prominent European Country powered by nuclear energy, so powered for more than 40 years with no major radiation related death toll. As of this writing, (10:11 PM EST (US) 01/14/22) France is providing electricity with a carbon dioxide intensity of 115 g CO2/kwh, with 18.27% of those emissions (21 g CO/kwh) resulting from the fact that France is currently importing 4.18% of its electricity from its rather dirty neighbor, Germany, where the carbon dioxide intensity of electricity produced therein is 501 g CO/kwh as of this writing.

https://app.electricitymap.org/zone/FR

The Lancet Countdown, reference 1, is here: Nick Watts, Markus Amann, Nigel Arnell, Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson, Jessica Beagley, Kristine Belesova, Maxwell Boykoff, Peter Byass, Wenjia Cai, Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, Stuart Capstick, Jonathan Chambers, Samantha Coleman, Carole Dalin, Meaghan Daly, Niheer Dasandi, Shouro Dasgupta, Michael Davies, Claudia Di Napoli, Paula Dominguez-Salas, Paul Drummond, Robert Dubrow, Kristie L Ebi, Matthew Eckelman, Paul Ekins, Luis E Escobar, Lucien Georgeson, Su Golder, Delia Grace, Hilary Graham, Paul Haggar, Ian Hamilton, Stella Hartinger, Jeremy Hess, Shih-Che Hsu, Nick Hughes, Slava Jankin Mikhaylov, Marcia P Jimenez, Ilan Kelman, Harry Kennard, Gregor Kiesewetter, Patrick L Kinney, Tord Kjellstrom, Dominic Kniveton, Pete Lampard, Bruno Lemke, Yang Liu, Zhao Liu, Melissa Lott, Rachel Lowe, Jaime Martinez-Urtaza, Mark Maslin, Lucy McAllister, Alice McGushin, Celia McMichael, James Milner, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Karyn Morrissey, Simon Munzert, Kris A Murray, Tara Neville, Maria Nilsson, Maquins Odhiambo Sewe, Tadj Oreszczyn, Matthias Otto, Fereidoon Owfi, Olivia Pearman, David Pencheon, Ruth Quinn, Mahnaz Rabbaniha, Elizabeth Robinson, Joacim Rocklöv, Marina Romanello, Jan C Semenza, Jodi Sherman, Liuhua Shi, Marco Springmann, Meisam Tabatabaei, Jonathon Taylor, Joaquin Triñanes, Joy Shumake-Guillemot, Bryan Vu, Paul Wilkinson, Matthew Winning, Peng Gong, Hugh Montgomery, Anthony Costello.

The 2020 report ofThe Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: responding to converging crises, The Lancet, Volume 397, Issue 10269, 2021, Pages 129-170,

I'm not sure if this paper is open sourced, so here's an excerpt:

The Lancet Countdown is an international collaboration established to provide an independent, global monitoring system dedicated to tracking the emerging health profile of the changing climate.

The 2020 report presents 43 indicators across five sections: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerabilities; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. This report represents the findings and consensus of the 35 leading academic institutions and UN agencies that make up The Lancet Countdown, and draws on the expertise of climate scientists, geographers, engineers, experts in energy, food, and transport, economists, social, and political scientists, data scientists, public health professionals, and doctors.

The emerging health profile of the changing climate

5 years ago, countries committed to limit global warming to “well below 2°C” as part of the landmark Paris Agreement. 5 years on, global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions continue to rise steadily, with no convincing or sustained abatement, resulting in a rise in the global average temperature of 1·2°C. Indeed, the five hottest years on record have occurred since 2015...

...Vulnerable populations were exposed to an additional 475 million heatwave events globally in 2019, which was, in turn, reflected in excess morbidity and mortality (indicator 1.1.2). During the past 20 years, there has been a 53·7% increase in heat-related mortality in people older than 65 years, reaching a total of 296,000 deaths in 2018 (indicator 1.1.3)...

The bold for the 2018 death toll is mine.

Germany, a prominent country in Europe is arguing with the rest of Europe that nuclear energy is "too dangerous." Yet is is difficult to record 296,000 deaths from nuclear energy on the entire planet over nearly 70 years of commercial nuclear energy operations, never mind one year.

The argument that the Germans make, that's it's OK to dump 500 g CO2/kwh on all of humanity, including future generations, given that there is no known industrial process to remove it, because nuclear power is "too dangerous" strikes me as a Trumpian scale distortion of something called "reality."

Climate change is "too dangerous," and there's real data behind this determination. The Germans seem to be out of their minds.