Powell Drops Below Target Elevation Of 3525 FASL; Study Shows Power Generation Stopping In 2024
A relatively dry February pushed Lake Powell below a key water level for the first time since the lake was considered “full” in 1980, and has led to deeper projected drops over the next two years. On Tuesday, the lake fell below 3,525 feet above sea level, a key target elevation that water managers have been trying to keep Powell above because it provides a buffer from the minimum level at which Glen Canyon Dam can generate power. Previous forecasts showed this was possible and the Bureau of Reclamation announced on March 4 that a temporary drop below 3,525 feet was on its way.
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Each month, the Bureau of Reclamation, which manages Powell, produces a report known as the 24-Month Study. The document projects three scenarios of monthly conditions in the Colorado River Basin two years out — a most probable outcome as well as a best- and worst-case scenario. The worst-case scenario version — known as the “probable minimum” scenario — from the Bureau’s March 24-Month Study released Tuesday shows the elevation level at Powell skirting just above 3,490 feet above sea level in March 2023, the lowest elevation at which Glen Canyon Dam can generate power. The probable minimum projections two years out show the elevation at Powell falling below 3,490 feet. More than 3 million customers use Glen Canyon Dam electricity and the federal government generates roughly $150 million in average annual revenue from selling that hydropower.
Jeff Lukas, an independent water and climate researcher based in Lafayette, said the March data shows that over the next two years projected levels at Powell will dip about 5-feet lower than was predicted in the February data. Lukas referred to the updated outlook as “substantially worse” when compared to the previous month. “That 5-foot difference may be small relative to the 75 feet that Powell has already dropped since March 2020,” Lukas said. “But when we’re flirting with minimum power pool, a 5-foot difference in expected outcomes is a big deal.”
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A 2019 Drought Response Operations Agreement, or DROA, between the Upper Basin states — Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming — set the 3,525 number as an important “target elevation” for the reservoir, providing a 35-foot buffer above the minimum power level. Last year, to protect the level at Powell, water managers made emergency releases from Flaming Gorge Reservoir in Wyoming and Blue Mesa west of Gunnison. The releases dropped the water level at Blue Mesa by 8 feet, which forced an early end to the boating season and significantly impacted the Gunnison County economy.
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https://coloradosun.com/2022/03/16/lake-powell-water-below-buffer-zone/