Welcome to DU!
The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards.
Join the community:
Create a free account
Support DU (and get rid of ads!):
Become a Star Member
Latest Breaking News
General Discussion
The DU Lounge
All Forums
Issue Forums
Culture Forums
Alliance Forums
Region Forums
Support Forums
Help & Search
Environment & Energy
Related: About this forumThe EV Transition Explained: Battery Challenges. Batteries expose supply chain and skills gaps
ANALYSIS | ENERGY
The EV Transition Explained: Battery Challenges > Batteries expose supply chain and skills gaps
ROBERT N. CHARETTE | 19 NOV 2022 | 6 MIN READ
Energy and information are two basic currencies of organic and social systems," the economics Nobelist Herb Simon once observed. "A new technology that alters the terms on which one or the other of these is available to a system can work on it the most profound changes.
{snip}
Batteries and the supply chain challenge
Another critical question is whether all the planned battery plant output will support expected EV production demands. For instance, the US will require 8 million EV batteries annually by 2030 if its target of half of all new-vehicle sales are EVs is met, with that number rising each year after. As IEA executive director Fatih Birol observes, Today, the data shows a looming mismatch between the worlds strengthened climate ambitions and the availability of critical minerals that are essential to realizing those ambitions.
This mismatch worries automakers. GM, Ford, Tesla and others have moved to secure batteries through 2025, but it could be tricky after that. Rivian Automotive Chief Executive RJ Scaringe was recently quoted in the Wall Street Journal as saying that 90% to 95% of the (battery) supply chain does not exist, and that the current semiconductor chip shortage is a small appetizer to what we are about to feel on battery cells over the next two decades.
The competition for securing raw materials, along with the increased consumer demand, has caused EV prices to spike. Ford has raised the price of the Lightning $6,000 to $8,500 and CEO Farley bluntly states that in regard to material shortages in the foreseeable future, I dont think we should be confident in any other outcomes, than an increase in prices.
Stiff Competition for Engineering Talent
{snip}
Automakers, including Tesla, are all scrambling for battery talent, with bidding wars reportedly breaking out to acquire top candidates. With automakers planning to spend more than $13 billion to build at least 13 new EV battery plants in North America within the next five to seven years, experienced management and production line talent will likely be in extremely short supply. Teslas Texas Gigafactory needs some 10,000 workers alone, for example. With at least 60 new battery plants planned to be in operation globally by 2030, and scores needed soon afterwards, major battery makers are already highlighting their expected skill shortages.
The underlying reason for the worry is that supplying sufficient raw materials to existing and planned battery plants as well as for the manufacturers of other renewable energy sources and military systems, who are competing for the same materials, have several complications to overcome. Among them is the need for more mines to provide the metals required, which have spiked in price as demand has increased. For example, while demand for lithium is growing rapidly, investment in mines has significantly lagged that which has been aimed towards EVs and battery plants. It can take five or more years to get a lithium mine up and going, but operations can only start after it has secured the required permits, a process which itself can take years.
{snip}
The EV Transition Explained: Battery Challenges > Batteries expose supply chain and skills gaps
ROBERT N. CHARETTE | 19 NOV 2022 | 6 MIN READ
Energy and information are two basic currencies of organic and social systems," the economics Nobelist Herb Simon once observed. "A new technology that alters the terms on which one or the other of these is available to a system can work on it the most profound changes.
{snip}
Batteries and the supply chain challenge
Another critical question is whether all the planned battery plant output will support expected EV production demands. For instance, the US will require 8 million EV batteries annually by 2030 if its target of half of all new-vehicle sales are EVs is met, with that number rising each year after. As IEA executive director Fatih Birol observes, Today, the data shows a looming mismatch between the worlds strengthened climate ambitions and the availability of critical minerals that are essential to realizing those ambitions.
This mismatch worries automakers. GM, Ford, Tesla and others have moved to secure batteries through 2025, but it could be tricky after that. Rivian Automotive Chief Executive RJ Scaringe was recently quoted in the Wall Street Journal as saying that 90% to 95% of the (battery) supply chain does not exist, and that the current semiconductor chip shortage is a small appetizer to what we are about to feel on battery cells over the next two decades.
The competition for securing raw materials, along with the increased consumer demand, has caused EV prices to spike. Ford has raised the price of the Lightning $6,000 to $8,500 and CEO Farley bluntly states that in regard to material shortages in the foreseeable future, I dont think we should be confident in any other outcomes, than an increase in prices.
Stiff Competition for Engineering Talent
{snip}
Automakers, including Tesla, are all scrambling for battery talent, with bidding wars reportedly breaking out to acquire top candidates. With automakers planning to spend more than $13 billion to build at least 13 new EV battery plants in North America within the next five to seven years, experienced management and production line talent will likely be in extremely short supply. Teslas Texas Gigafactory needs some 10,000 workers alone, for example. With at least 60 new battery plants planned to be in operation globally by 2030, and scores needed soon afterwards, major battery makers are already highlighting their expected skill shortages.
The underlying reason for the worry is that supplying sufficient raw materials to existing and planned battery plants as well as for the manufacturers of other renewable energy sources and military systems, who are competing for the same materials, have several complications to overcome. Among them is the need for more mines to provide the metals required, which have spiked in price as demand has increased. For example, while demand for lithium is growing rapidly, investment in mines has significantly lagged that which has been aimed towards EVs and battery plants. It can take five or more years to get a lithium mine up and going, but operations can only start after it has secured the required permits, a process which itself can take years.
{snip}
InfoView thread info, including edit history
TrashPut this thread in your Trash Can (My DU » Trash Can)
BookmarkAdd this thread to your Bookmarks (My DU » Bookmarks)
1 replies, 794 views
ShareGet links to this post and/or share on social media
AlertAlert this post for a rule violation
PowersThere are no powers you can use on this post
EditCannot edit other people's posts
ReplyReply to this post
EditCannot edit other people's posts
Rec (2)
ReplyReply to this post
1 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight:
NoneDon't highlight anything
5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
The EV Transition Explained: Battery Challenges. Batteries expose supply chain and skills gaps (Original Post)
mahatmakanejeeves
Nov 2022
OP
Biden needs to declare a national emergency. The creepublican House won't help.
hedda_foil
Nov 2022
#1
hedda_foil
(16,371 posts)1. Biden needs to declare a national emergency. The creepublican House won't help.
And Musk should be focusing on mining the moon or Mars instead of killing Twitter.