New study estimates global warming potential of hydrogen (it's not good)

[NickB79]

https://phys.org/news/2023-06-global-potential-hydrogen.amp

The global warming effect of leaked hydrogen is almost 12 times stronger than CO2, shows a new study by CICERO, a climate research center, published in Communications Earth & Environment.

The study fills a gap in our knowledge about the climate effects of hydrogen, a central technology in the energy transition.

Unlike exhaust from burning coal and gas that contains CO2, burning hydrogen emits only water vapor and oxygen. Rather, it is the leaking of hydrogen from production, transportation and usage that adds to global warming.

Hydrogen is not a greenhouse gas, but its chemical reactions in the atmosphere affect greenhouse gases like methane, ozone, and stratospheric water vapor. In this way, emissions of hydrogen can cause global warming, despite its lack of direct radiative properties.

Hydrogen is the leakiest molecule known to man. Using it in our existing gas pipelines and fueling stations would result in massive H2 losses to the atmosphere. Widespread adoption of H2 without a complete redesign and rebuild of our energy infrastructure will eliminate all the climate-fighting potential it may have.

[MutantAndProud]

1. Helium infused hard disks for computing are notorious for leaks

Due to the molecular size and behavior of helium, which, is also number two on the periodic table after hydrogen in terms of density. They have to use special foil seals and it literally migrates through the solid barrier due to quantum ‘slippage’ (seepage) over time, which is why they have operating lifespans shorter than those that use regular air.

Hydrogen is lighter, smaller, and more reactive.

[Think. Again.]

2. This is good...

Last edited Fri Jun 9, 2023, 06:12 AM - Edit history (2)

We're lucky to have folks looking into this kind of thing before we make any major mistakes we'll regret!

I'm going to look for the original study paper. The phys.org article doesn't give much in-depth information but I'm assuming this applies to H2 in gas form, not liquid form, I'm ASSUMING, I don't know.

Hopefully we'll see more and some peer reviews, etc, soon.

UPDATE: I'VE EDITED MY ORIGINAL REPLY (ABOVE) TO INCLUDE THIS:

Okay, did some quick research (of course all this is vague but so is this report)

We emit around 37 Billion metric tons of CO2 each year.

The energy dept. estimates we will produce around 37 Million tons of H2 at peak.

The study compared GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL (GWP) of H2 to equal amounts of CO2 and found H2 to have 12 times the GWP of CO2.

37 million x 12 = 444 million. Less than one half billion.

At peak production of H2, we would not produce anywhere near the amount of H2 that, multiplied by 12, would equal the amount of CO2 we emit and so

we would not be having anywhere near an equal Global Warming effect even if we just released ALL of the H2 we produce into the atmosphere,

and of course "leakage" is going to be a small percentage of that 37 Million tons of H2 produced.

We would still be decreasing greenhouse gas presence in the atmosphere by a huge amount, possibly even to an amount that would not trigger any climate responses, if we reach peak H2 and eliminate fossil fuels.

A big step forward in the race to mitigate climate change affects while we continue to develop safer and cleaner power technologies.

This study is a good thing if it results in less leakage of H2, but it's certainly not any reason to slow our progress against fossil fuels.

[Think. Again.]

3. However...

Of course we'll have to wait for study replications, peer reviews, etc. (that's just how science works) but unless this study is quickly shown to be wrong in some way, this should immediately serve as a BIG RED FLAG for the H2 industry.

[Think. Again.]

4. And..

These measurements were based on equal amounts of CO2 and H2, so I guess calculations of CO2 amounts in the atmosphere (and the "warming effect that has) would have to be compared to various estimates of H2 amounts leaked into the atmosphere for a more clear picture of how much of a "warming effect" those leaked H2 amounts would actually have. I think.

This is my thinking: one rock might weigh 10 times as much as one pebble, but 100,000 of those pebbles would weigh more (and do more damage) than 10 rocks. If the amount of H2 that might be leaked is neglible compared to the amount of CO2 that has been (and is being) emitted, it might still result in a major reduction in the causes of climate change.

[Think. Again.]

5. And also...

Luckily no one is considering using H2 by by shipping it through our gas pipes or using existing fuel station infrastructure. In fact, the recently released U.S. H2 Roadmap expressly omits those scenarios.

Download the roadmap here: https://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/us-national-clean-hydrogen-strategy-roadmap.pdf

[NickB79]

8. In fact, every nation is planning on using the existing gas pipeline to move hydrogen

The US Dept of Energy started the HyBlend Initiative in 2021, under the Biden administration, specifically to look at using US natural gas pipelines to move hydrogen.

https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hyblend-opportunities-hydrogen-blending-natural-gas-pipelines

The United States has an extensive network of approximately three million miles of natural gas pipelines and more than 1,600 miles of dedicated hydrogen pipeline. Hydrogen produced through clean pathways can be injected into natural gas pipelines, and the resulting blends can be used to generate heat and power with lower emissions than using natural gas alone.

Blend limits depend on the design and condition of current pipeline materials, of pipeline infrastructure equipment, and of applications that utilize natural gas. The HyBlend team will test pipeline materials in varying concentrations of hydrogen at pressures up to 100 bar to assess their susceptibility to hydrogen effects.

Just because it's not mentioned in the H2 Roadmap doesn't mean it's not being planned, as the HyBlend program is still active. The fact that it was omitted from the H2 Roadmap should make you concerned, not reassured.

And over in China, they have a similar initiative in effect.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/04/18/the-hydrogen-stream-chinese-companies-push-for-hydrogen-transport/

China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) has transported hydrogen by blending it into a gas pipeline in Ningxia, China. “After 100 days of test operation, the overall operation of this 397-kilometer natural gas pipeline is safe and stable,” said the Chinese company. The proportion of hydrogen in this natural gas pipeline has gradually reached 24%. The country is working to achieve a 20% blending throughout its entire 185,000-kilometer gas network. Blending hydrogen into natural gas networks would reportedly decrease dramatically the cost of hydrogen transportation. “The cost of hydrogen transmission is about 10% of a gas tank trailer,” said the company.

And the EU has a similar program as well.

https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/repowereu-more-than-a-million-tonnes-of-green-hydrogen-will-be-used-for-gas-blending-in-2030-says-commission/2-1-1221967

The European Commission (EC) is expecting to see 1.3 million tonnes (mt) of green hydrogen to be blended into the natural gas network by 2030, according to a document published as part of its European REPowerEU package announced on Wednesday — raising the spectre of even higher heating costs for consumers with only marginal emissions reductions.

This is where the leakage will occur, because we all know that no government is going to spend enough to fully leak-proof the gas system, when we currently see a 2-3% leakage rate today with just methane, a much easier molecule to contain.

[Think. Again.]

11. yes..

The "roadmap" does discuss the testing of whether H2 can be piped through existing pipes, I stand corrected, but emphazises that only "Blending" with natural gas at certain percentages would allow for this to occur safely so no, pure H2 would not be using existing pipelines.

It also discusses that new infrastructure would be neccesary for any fueling points.

(I apologize that I can't seem to cut and paste directly from the downloaded document).

[Think. Again.]

7. some good news about this...

Okay, did some quick research (of course all this is vague but so is this report)

We emit around 37 Billion metric tons of CO2 each year.

The energy dept. estimates we will produce around 37 Million tons of H2 at peak.

The study compared GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL (GWP) of H2 to equal amounts of CO2 and found H2 to have 12 times the GWP of CO2.

37 million x 12 = 444 million. Less than one half billion.

At peak production of H2, we would not produce anywhere near the amount of H2 that, multiplied by 12, would equal the amount of CO2 we emit and so we would not be having anywhere near an equal Global Warming effect even if we just released ALL of the H2 we produce into the atmosphere, and of course "leakage" is going to be a small percentage of that 37 Million tons of H2 produced.

We would still be decreasing greenhouse gas presence in the atmosphere by a huge amount, possibly even to an amount that would not trigger any climate responses, if we reach peak H2 and eliminate fossil fuels.

A big step forward in the race to mitigate climate change affects while we continue to develop safer and cleaner power technologies.

This study is a good thing if it results in less leakage of H2, but it's certainly not any reason to slow our progress against fossil fuels.

[NickB79]

9. The tonnage of hydrogen created or lost is immaterial. It's the leak percentage that matters

It doesn't matter if we produce 30,000 tons, 3 million tons, or 37 million tons of hydrogen. If we leak more than 9% of the hydrogen produced, we'd have been better off just using natural gas in the first place and investing the billions of dollars spent on the hydrogen transition into other renewable energy storage mediums. Past 9% leakage rate, hydrogen loses it's green potential compared to fossil fuels like natural gas.

https://acee.princeton.edu/acee-news/switching-to-hydrogen-fuel-could-prolong-the-methane-problem/

That means that if more than 9% of the green hydrogen produced leaks into the atmosphere — whether that be at the point of production, sometime during transport, or anywhere else along the value chain — atmospheric methane would increase over the next few decades, canceling out some of the climate benefits of switching away from fossil fuels.

It's not so much that hydrogen will become a massive greenhouse gas in it's own right, because as you pointed out, we're planning on producing only 1/1000 the tonnage of hydrogen as compared to carbon from fossil fuels. But globally we're considering investing TRILLIONS of dollars into hydrogen to combat climate change. What other carbon mitigation programs and renewable energy storage systems could we fund with that money that don't carry the same risk of failure?

[Caribbeans]

6. This is assuming that the nation that used hydrogen fuel cells to go to the moon IN THE 1960's

can't make pipelines that don't leak IN 2023

But that's false, as anyone could see with a bit of searching

Here we are in a situation where China is not afraid of building pipelines that don't leak but the US is

It would be funny if it wasn't so GD sad.

Huge hydrogen demand prompts China to build pipeline network from wind and solar energy-rich regions.

By 2050, China will put in place a national hydrogen grid extending 6000 kilometres
https://www.upstreamonline.com/energy-transition/huge-hydrogen-demand-prompts-china-to-build-pipeline-network-from-wind-and-solar-energy-rich-regions/2-1-1461560

[NickB79]

10. China has 185,000 km of natural gas pipelines

So 6000 km is 3% of their existing gas network. I don't see that as supplying a nation as large as China with energy, unless that energy resource only plays a small role.

But alas, they are in fact planning on trying to use their existing pipelines to move hydrogen, with all the risks of leakage that entails.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/04/18/the-hydrogen-stream-chinese-companies-push-for-hydrogen-transport/

China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) has transported hydrogen by blending it into a gas pipeline in Ningxia, China. “After 100 days of test operation, the overall operation of this 397-kilometer natural gas pipeline is safe and stable,” said the Chinese company. The proportion of hydrogen in this natural gas pipeline has gradually reached 24%. The country is working to achieve a 20% blending throughout its entire 185,000-kilometer gas network. Blending hydrogen into natural gas networks would reportedly decrease dramatically the cost of hydrogen transportation. “The cost of hydrogen transmission is about 10% of a gas tank trailer,” said the company.

I'd also point out, again, that this is the same green hydrogen facility that is located in a semi-arid area near the Mongolia, which means they'll be draining a non-renewable aquifer to generate their hydrogen stream.