Gloomy climate calculation: Scientists predict a collapse of the Atlantic ocean current to ...

[Jim__]

Gloomy climate calculation: Scientists predict a collapse of the Atlantic ocean current to happen mid-century

From phys.org

Important ocean currents that redistribute heat, cold and precipitation between the tropics and the northernmost parts of the Atlantic region will shut down around the year 2060 if current greenhouse gas emissions persist. This is the conclusion based on new calculations from the University of Copenhagen that contradict the latest report from the IPCC.

Contrary to what we may imagine about the impact of climate change in Europe, a colder future may be in store. In a new study, published in Nature Communications, researchers from the University of Copenhagen's Niels Bohr Institute and Department of Mathematical Sciences predict that the system of ocean currents which currently distributes cold and heat between the North Atlantic region and tropics will completely stop if we continue to emit the same levels of greenhouse gases as we do today.

Using advanced statistical tools and ocean temperature data from the last 150 years, the researchers calculated that the ocean current, known as the Thermohaline Circulation or the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), will collapse—with 95% certainty—between 2025 and 2095. This will most likely occur in 34 years, in 2057, and could result in major challenges, particularly warming in the tropics and increased storminess in the North Atlantic region.

"Shutting down the AMOC can have very serious consequences for Earth's climate, for example, by changing how heat and precipitation are distributed globally. While a cooling of Europe may seem less severe as the globe as a whole becomes warmer and heat waves occur more frequently, this shutdown will contribute to an increased warming of the tropics, where rising temperatures have already given rise to challenging living conditions," says Professor Peter Ditlevsen from the Niels Bohr Institute.

more ...

[Think. Again.]

1. That...

...would (will?) be the end.

[geardaddy]

3. Of us.

The earth will go on.

[Think. Again.]

6. yes...

...the earth will go on, possibly as a liveless rock like all the other lifeless rocks floating around.

Climate chaos doesn't just affect humanity. Disruption of global ecology could very well spin into a biological death spural.

All life (that we know of) in the universe gone.

All. Life. Gone.

[NJCher]

10. I think the earth will be just fine

without us. It will recover. This is a nice planet you got here, hate to see you lose it says Mother Nature.

[OKIsItJustMe]

14. I do get tired of this meme, but I have begun to accede to it

In Gaia: A new look at life on Earth, James Lovelock (reassures?) his readers that we would not destroy all life on the planet. Nothing we could do would rival the “oxygen catastrophe.” Microscopic life forms will doubtlessly survive, it’s just the macroscopic life forms (humans, other animals, birds, fish, plants…) which would perish in another “great dying.”

Sadly, I take little comfort in that.

[Irish_Dem]

25. Mother Nature will be much happier without all the dangerous parasites infesting her.

[wnylib]

17. No. All life will not be gone.

Human life will continue in parts of the earth not affected by the Atlantic Ocean currents. Various kinds of life will persist even in areas that are affected by Atlantic currents.

Most affected are likely to be Europe, Canada, Greenland, the US. Asia and Australia will likely be least affected.

[Think. Again.]

21. I'm not sure you understand...

...the extent of the effects of atmospheric CO2 saturation.

The "web of life" is an extremely finely balanced system that has taken billions of years to evolve.

Blasting it with such a disruptive and sudden jolt could very well collapse the entire interconnected system. A domino effect from hell.

[wnylib]

24. I understand better than you think, but

I am not an expert in global heating and cooling, so I do not know the extent of damage that the current heating will cause.

My response was in regard to the collapse of the Atlantic currents which keep Europe and the northern US warm. That has the potential to cool Europe, Canada, and the U.S. But if the warming is severe enough, it might cancel out any cooling effect in Europe and North America.

From historical geology courses, I know that the earth has gone through periods of much higher heat and carbon in the atmosphere so that large parts of all the continents were covered in shallow seas. That was before mammals, let alone human life. But if there had been human life then, they would not have survived. But there were other life forms, which are now extinct, leaving behind some interesting fossils for paleontologists and amateur fossil collectors.

The collapse of the Atlantic currents alone would not necessarily reproduce those kinds of conditions. It could happen if other factors are involved. Yes, high carbon levels could be the factor that sends us backward a few epochs or eons. That would definitely be the end of human life, but not the end of all life forms.

Global warming is definitely a very serious issue facing us, and a threat to life as we know it. I am not trying to diminish the importance of it. But I am saying that we do not know for sure yet what the extent of damage from the collapse of Atlantic currents will be.

It could mean a new ice age. Or it could mean a heated up planet which humans could not survive. Ocean currents are very complex at various levels and locations, subject to wind currents, deep water level current exchanges with the surface, and other factors.

[Think. Again.]

27. I apologize for being insulting...

....that wasn't my intention but I want to point out that the the collapse of the AMOC would have much more far-reaching effects than only variations in air tempuratures.

The ocean ecosystems are a very large and important part of the overall planetary ecology. The results of an AMOC collapse, added to all the rest of the environmental shocks we will be experiencing could very well collapse the entire biological support system.

[wnylib]

28. I don't think that it would be

a collapse of the entire biological system. I think that some life forms would survive. No solace to humans who would not survive if the heated planet was severe enough to make earth uninhabitable for us.

Then, again, if any people did survive, some significant evolutionary changes in us might develop.

Yes, there is more involved than air temperatures. But we don't know yet what the extent of damage would be. I do not think that we should wait to observe it. It is possible to make some tentative estimates of the consequences. It would involve much more data than I know about, from a variety of scientists in several fields - biology, oceanology, chemistry, meteorology, paleontology, etc.

I just think that, since it involves so many factors, it is a bit premature to start writing a eulogy for all of humanity.

[Think. Again.]

29. From my own...

..ecological sciences education, I can see we are in a very dangerous situation and I strongly believe that there isn't any warning too harsh to make.

It could very well be that everything is at stake.

[wnylib]

30. Since there is so much opposition to doing something significant

about global warming now, and it requires cooperation from around the world, it might be a good idea to split our efforts in two directions. One would be to continue pushing for a decrease in carbon emissions. (A complete end seems impossible.) With so many forest fires destroying trees, it also looks nearly impossible to count on them to release enough oxygen into the atmosphere t9 help.

So the other prong of dealing with global warming perhaps might be developing ways to cope with the changes better. Is it possible that teams of scientists could come up with technologies to fight the carbon levels and reduce them? It looks like our lives could depend on something like that, IF it is possible.

[Think. Again.]

33. Great points!

I do know that a strong focus in the acadmic world has shifted to mitigation and adaptation, the 'coping' effort you mentioned.

I also think that we are being just as irresponsible by not saying or doing anything toward a major reduction in consumption. A vast amount of the energy we produce is simply wasted. And by wasted I mean completely unnecessary- shopping mall interiors brightly lit when the place is closed all night, huge office buldings fully heated over the non-working weekends, advertising billboards made of huge tv's glaring onto roads nobody uses for days at a time. A crazy amount of heat leaking out of open doors and windows of businesses. Restuarants running gas heater trees in the open OUTDOORS because customers like to sit on the patio in winter.

So many, many ways we could reduce our usage without even noticing it, and so many more ways we reduce it tremendously with just a very small inconvenience.

But no one is talking about any of that.

[Random Boomer]

37. No, not an ice age

Northern Europe and UK should be cold, given their location. The AMOC warms them by carrying heat from the Tropics and discharging it in the north. The collapse of the AMOC would simply stop this heat redistribution. This isn't an ice age, it just localized cooling.

[wnylib]

38. In the past, the collapse of the AMOC occurred a few times

in association with the ice ages.

But, according to this article in the Guardian, the cooling would not be more than a few degrees Celsius, and Scotland would be cooler than the southern part of England.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/25/gulf-stream-could-collapse-as-early-as-2025-study-suggests

[IbogaProject]

12. Uh these shifts are hapoening at record pace

I'd guess 90 or more percent of species will go extinct. That doesn't exclude humans. The last time carbon in the air was above 400, let alone 420 the oceans were 200 feet higher. That's 80 or more percent of humans displaced.

[wnylib]

18. Central Asia and western Siberia not likely to be under water.

[Duppers]

31. bronxiteforever posted last year

The majority of humans and lawmakers haven't paid attention.

At no time in Earth's history, giant meteorites and super-volcanos aside, has our climate system been jolted by changes in atmospheric gas composition like what we are imposing today by our unabated burning of fossil fuels.https://www.democraticunderground.com/1127153749

Most folks will have my late mother's response when I warned her about celebrating a neighbor's 4th child and the resulting contribution to global warming. She responded:

"Well, how did WE cause it?"


We'll be choking to death before most people wake up, especially Rethugians.

[LymphocyteLover]

2. Scary shit, and something we seem powerless to do anything about

[calimary]

7. Especially if nothing's done to stop the ongoing carbon emissions from humans.

Last edited Tue Jul 25, 2023, 06:24 PM - Edit history (1)

They have to STOP. NOT merely slow down.

And unfortunately we’ll be fighting the damned deniers all the way. I wish they would GO away.

And if not, how much and how often can we go around what Congress blocks, and make it happen at the state level? Or the county level? C'mon! Let's put on our thinking caps and THINK! Job One is "How do we get around the shit the bad guys have put in our way?" Our Dems HAVE TO start thinking strategically like that, ALL THE TIME. We've been WAY too nice for WAY too damn long.

[NJCher]

11. remember what happened to emissions during covid?

It was amazing, seeing the animals come out and the pollution disappear.

They should implement an odd/even day driving policy. That would take emissions down considerably. We have a good work from home model now, so why not?

[Think. Again.]

22. Yes!

...and that was without our even having an intention to set thngs right.

But we are NOT EVEN TRYING still.

[calimary]

34. That is DEFINITELY something to encourage, and to build upon!

We made it through the main COVID emergency by scaling WAY back on activities outside the home, including at work (which also relocated at home). And there are options like four-day workweeks, and permanently extending telecommuting for some jobs - maybe many jobs!

Definitely something to write your Congresscritter about!

[LymphocyteLover]

35. Yes, but I also worry the damage is already baked into the atmosphere in the time frame where we

affect emissions, and there's no way to affect such a massive system as ocean currents

[calimary]

36. True enough. But why can't we at least nibble around the edges?

Aren't there at least some minor moves that could be expanded upon when we get the House back (and presumably keep the Senate and the White House)?

[progressoid]

4. Bring on the next little ice age!!

[calimary]

8. May not be so little.

[wnylib]

20. Even during the massive ice ages, there was still

human life on earth, as well as other life forms.

It would be disastrous for Canada, Europe, and the northern US. Not for many other parts of the world. Some regions would become arid, but others would be more humid and swampy.

[Think. Again.]

23. Yep...

...and the societal connections that everyone everywhere depends on for everything from food to medicine would collapse completely.

It's more than just heat and water.

[wnylib]

26. Of course a new ice age would be immensely disruptive.

Whole populations in some regions would die. Technology would drop backward in most places.

I am only saying that, IF the collapse of the Atlantic currents resulted in another ice age, it would not be the end of all human life.

OTOH, if global heating gets severe enough, the earth might slip back to conditions that existed when trilobytes were the dominant life form. That would definitely be the end of human life on earth.

[LoisB]

5. "Day After Tomorrow" in real life.

[wnylib]

19. Beat me to it.

[SalamanderSleeps]

9. Wow, a planet killed by high-speed monkeys and dinosaur juice.

2050 is not that far away.

At least rich people made a lot of money.

[Duppers]

32. Perfect!

[bronxiteforever]

13. I think Global warming will shred any ice event.

The north hemisphere has broken all records for heat. The North Atlantic sst's are flying off the charts. Global warming will overwhelm any cooling effect of AMOC failure. We will surely have a Blue Ocean Event as well but much sooner than predicted.

All we can expect is chaos. Predictions are impossible to make with any accuracy, including mine.
My eyes are fixed on the recovery or not of the Antarctic ice for this next year.

[OKIsItJustMe]

15. See also...

RealClimate: What is happening to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation?

[pecosbob]

16. But we needed to roll around town in our living rooms with our barcaloungers

The immoral wealthy led us down this path to enrich themselves, but we have no one but ourselves to blame. If your lifestyle requires a seven-thousand pound SUV, then change your effing lifestyle.