"Something Weird Is Going On": Area Of Antarctic Ocean Not Freezing In Midwinter Is Size Of Mexico

[hatrack]

Most mornings since the end of March and before Will Hobbs has done much at all other than make a coffee, he scrolls his inbox looking for one particular email. Generated and sent automatically from a colleague, the email arrives just after 4am and gives the latest data from a US government satellite showing how much sea ice is floating around Antarctica. “Unprecedented is a word that gets bandied around a lot, but it doesn’t really get to just how shocking this is,” says Hobbs, a sea ice scientist at the University of Tasmania. “It is very much outside our understanding of this system.”

In February, the floating sea ice around Antarctica hit a record low for the second year running. Since satellites started tracking the region’s ice in 1979, there had never been less ice. As it does every year, as the temperatures around the continent plunged towards winter, the sea ice started to return. But the moderate alarm from scientists at that record low – coming only a year after a previous record low – is now being overlaid with astonishment. Some are worried they could be witnessing the start of a slow collapse of Antarctica’s sea ice. By now there would usually be about 16.4m square kilometres of Antarctic sea ice. But this week, there was just 14.1m sq km. An area bigger than Mexico has failed to freeze.

“There’s a sense that something weird is going on. It’s dropping way below anything we have seen in our record,” says Dr Walt Meier, a senior scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado. Meier’s job is to help collate and present data from US satellites that have been recording sea ice since November 1978. It’s the same data that gets presented in Hobbs’ daily email and the same data that has been turned into charts and spread on social media around the world in recent weeks.

Link to tweet

EDIT

Every day a defence satellite passes over the region with an instrument onboard which – through clouds and at night – can detect whether the ocean surface is covered by ice or water. Every morning about 7am in Boulder, Colorado, an automated system pulls the data, runs an algorithm and spits out how much ice has been around the continent, averaged over the past five days. “In terms of it being relative to normal, we are even further behind where we were in February,” Meier says. “It’s quite remarkable and there are moments we look and say: wow, this is strange.” Not only is there less ice, but the reduction is being seen almost all the way around the continent’s 18,000km coastline.

EDIT

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/29/something-weird-is-going-on-search-for-answers-as-antarctic-sea-ice-stays-at-historic-lows?CMP=twt_a-environment_b-gdneco

[Hugh_Lebowski]

1. "There's a sense that something weird is going on."

I really wish serious scientists would never say this kind of mealy-mouth bullshit.

Something ENTIRELY FUCKING CATASTROPHIC is 'going on'. And you know EXACTLY what it is.

Just say it, man, FFFS.

[FirstLight]

2. agreed! nt

[GPV]

3. Yes, please! Less "we don't want to offend anyone," and more "hair on fire!"

[Hugh_Lebowski]

4. Just wait until the wingnuts switch en masse to saying

That 'the scientists' failed to warn us about how bad climate change was going to be, and more importantly, how quickly it was going to occur, and therefore it's really their fault we're in this mess.

They're going to do it without even a hint of irony, either. Probably demand congressional investigations on top of it.

Mark my words, it's coming. They love to make our collective heads explode.

[GPV]

13. They do, indeed!

[OKIsItJustMe]

15. Even people I know and respect

have asked me, “Why didn’t anyone tell us about this? We never heard about this in school!”

I say, “Sure we did, but ‘Uncle Ronnie” said we didn’t need to worry about any of that. Turn those thermostats back up! Take down those solar panels. Drive 65 on the interstate, like God intended. All we need to do is drill for more oil!”

[OKIsItJustMe]

16. Every once in a while, I will point a Republican "skeptic" to this page

https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2001/06/20010611-2.html

For Immediate Release
Office of the Press Secretary
June 11, 2001

President Bush Discusses Global Climate Change

11:10 A.M. EDT

THE PRESIDENT: Good morning. I've just met with senior members of my administration who are working to develop an effective and science-based approach to addressing the important issues of global climate change.

This is an issue that I know is very important to the nations of Europe, which I will be visiting for the first time as President. The earth's well-being is also an issue important to America. And it's an issue that should be important to every nation in every part of our world.

The issue of climate change respects no border. Its effects cannot be reined in by an army nor advanced by any ideology. Climate change, with its potential to impact every corner of the world, is an issue that must be addressed by the world.

…

Of course, three months later, he had a new set of priorities…

[LiberalArkie]

23. Anyone remember The Day After Tomorrow ?

[Delphinus]

32. Yes.

I do.

[Blues Heron]

5. They suspect but aren't sure

-snip-
Meier says it is hard to know if the changes are natural or human caused – or a mix of both – and says there is some evidence of a similar sudden swing from high levels of sea ice to very low in photographs from mid-1960s satellites.

Dr Andrew Meijers, an oceanographer at the British Antarctic Survey, says many climate scientists who were “not necessarily sea ice folk” suspect the drops since 2016 showed climate change had “finally burned through the natural barriers around the sea ice formed by the unique wind and atmospheric circulation”. But there was a lack of concrete evidence to support that view

“Overall, the feeling is something big is happening this year, and this is probably associated with the wider decline since 2016,” says Meijers. “Whether this is anthropogenically driven, and if so, what the driver may be, is still up for debate.”

[Hugh_Lebowski]

6. Like I say, mealy-mouthed bullshit ...

I'm all for accuracy, but AT LEAST say what is LIKELY, and they damn well know what is LIKELY here.

[Blues Heron]

8. reread this part

Dr Andrew Meijers, an oceanographer at the British Antarctic Survey, says many climate scientists who were “not necessarily sea ice folk” suspect the drops since 2016 showed climate change had “finally burned through the natural barriers around the sea ice formed by the unique wind and atmospheric circulation”. But there was a lack of concrete evidence to support that view

[peppertree]

10. And this is winter in the Southern Hemisphere

God help us when January rolls around.

[Blues Heron]

12. exactly

[Hugh_Lebowski]

28. I understand the reticence to make proclamations without peer-review

But I think we're past the point where anyone shouldn't be forcefully putting forth the idea that climate change isn't LIKELY to be the cause, even if you want to hedge a bit

[BlueIn_W_Pa]

19. Meh, they are scientists, and get peer reviewed

They want to be accurate. For example, current air temps down there are, what -90F, and the ice is still melting. There's also 138 volcanoes under that ice, with at least 2 active, and the ocean appears to be melting the glaciers from under water.

Just to say, it's not clear until peer reviewed

[orthoclad]

26. Relax! He's going for precision.

Of course he could say "climate change" and leave it at that. But he's a scientist. He wants to know if a previously unknown and unpredicted factor like a "weird" current is melting the ice from below, e.g. He's using "weird" to describe those novel details that Nature excels at throwing at us.

This precision could be important if we decide to try geoengineering, which is looking more likely.

Old definition of reality: that which takes you by surprise.

[Think. Again.]

7. I'll tell ya what's weird that's going on....

What's weird is that these scientists, who know all too well "what is going on" and have known for years, are pretending like they're being surprised by some Completely Unexpected Events! that are clearly the very-much expected results of the climate change they themselves have been studying for years.

Why are they making statements like:

“Unprecedented is a word that gets bandied around a lot, but it doesn’t really get to just how shocking this is,” says Hobbs, a sea ice scientist at the University of Tasmania. “It is very much outside our understanding of this system.”

Or...

But the moderate alarm from scientists at that record low – coming only a year after a previous record low – is now being overlaid with astonishment. Some are worried they could be witnessing the start of a slow collapse of Antarctica’s sea ice.

Or...

“There’s a sense that something weird is going on. It’s dropping way below anything we have seen in our record,” says Dr Walt Meier, a senior scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado.

Or...

“In terms of it being relative to normal, we are even further behind where we were in February,” Meier says. “It’s quite remarkable and there are moments we look and say: wow, this is strange.”

"STRANGE" ??? This has all been predicted, discussed, and warned about within these scientists professional circles AND AMONG THE PUBLIC for decades!!!

Why are they pretending they're surprised????

[Blues Heron]

11. they are wondering what the actual mechanism is

none of them are unaware of global warming. The suddenness of the lack of winter freeze is what is strange, not that there is global warming and less ice.

[Think. Again.]

17. But it's NOT strange...

...this kind of thing is exactly what the prediction models forecasted.

[Blues Heron]

18. According to these scientists who actually study this, its surprising.

Again, they are talking about the rapidity, and the actual mechanism.

[Think. Again.]

21. If the speed of all this...

...is what is surprising them, that was certainly not made clear in their statements or in the reporting.

And I find even that hard to believe. Alarming yes, but not surprising to anyone who has been alert to the changes that are happening and the momentum that has been building.

[orthoclad]

27. No, the models are generally underestimates.

Because models are only as good as the actual information fed to them. They're not crystal balls.

He's going for precision about the actual, immediate mechanism which is causing a novel form of ice melt. That precision could be important for model input, or for planning the dangerous step of geoengineering.

All we really needed to know about the cause of climate change we knew 60 years ago, or longer, with Arrhenius' greenhouse effect calculations in 1896. We didn't act, for 120 years. That's not this scientist's fault for doing his job and being precise.

[Hugh_Lebowski]

29. You feel me :) (nt)

[peppertree]

9. There goes Miami

And Bangladesh - and a number of other, low-lying but densely populated places.

Maps 200 years from now will, sadly, look quite different from today's.

[BlueIn_W_Pa]

20. Ocean's been rising for thousands of years

shouldn't be too surprising with underwater cities from long ago

[jaxexpat]

22. I'm pretty sure there won't be contemporary maps to compare the 2023 condition in 200 years.

[orthoclad]

30. We should look at coastlines from 125,000 years ago,

the last time we had temperatures and GHG like this, to get an idea what to expect.

Maybe 2 billion people wil get flooded out. Ocean currents and cyclones will change. Food sources will suffer.

Bangladesh in particular will be caught between river floods from glacier melt and monsoons, and rising seas.

Sea levels rose 10 metres above present levels during Earth’s last warm period 125,000 years ago, according to new research that offers a glimpse of what may happen under our current climate change trajectory.

Our paper, published today in Nature Communications, shows that melting ice from Antarctica was the main driver of sea level rise in the last interglacial period, which lasted about 10,000 years.

https://theconversation.com/scientists-looked-at-sea-levels-125-000-years-in-the-past-the-results-are-terrifying-126017

I haven't found a global map, but here's Florida:

Florida During the Past Interglacial, Glacial, and Present. Image Source: Wanless

We'll lose the Everglades, the Keys, and the reefs. Think what that will do to Caribbean and Gulf fisheries. That's just one spot.

[rickford66]

14. I Wintered Over1970

We saw the warming effects on the permanent ice back then. I checked Google Earth a couple years ago and what I remember as permanent ice is gone. The road from McMurdo to Willie field is gone. The field looks moved and access would have to be a longer drive via Scott Base.

[OKIsItJustMe]

24. J E Hansen: Scientific reticence and sea level rise

https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/2/2/024002

Abstract

I suggest that a 'scientific reticence' is inhibiting the communication of a threat of a potentially large sea level rise. Delay is dangerous because of system inertias that could create a situation with future sea level changes out of our control. I argue for calling together a panel of scientific leaders to hear evidence and issue a prompt plain-written report on current understanding of the sea level change issue.

[OKIsItJustMe]

25. James Hansen et al: Climate change and trace gases

http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2007.2052
PDF Here: https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2007/2007_Hansen_ha02210k.pdf

Palaeoclimate data show that the Earth’s climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states. One feedback, the ‘albedo flip’ property of ice/water, provides a powerful trigger mechanism. A climate forcing that ‘flips’ the albedo of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet can spark a cataclysm. Inertia of ice sheet and ocean provides only moderate delay to ice sheet disintegration and a burst of added global warming. Recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the largest human-made climate forcing, but other trace constituents are also important. Only intense simultaneous efforts to slow CO2 emissions and reduce non-CO2 forcings can keep climate within or near the range of the past million years. The most important of the non-CO2 forcings is methane (CH4), as it causes the second largest human-made GHG climate forcing and is the principal cause of increased tropospheric ozone (O3), which is the third largest GHG forcing. Nitrous oxide (N2O) should also be a focus of climate mitigation efforts. Black carbon (‘black soot’) has a high global warming potential (approx. 2000, 500 and 200 for 20, 100 and 500 years, respectively) and deserves greater attention. Some forcings are especially effective at high latitudes, so concerted efforts to reduce their emissions could preserve Arctic ice, while also having major benefits for human health, agricultural productivity and the global environment.

[OKIsItJustMe]

31. NSIDC: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent

Just eyeballing it here, I'm calling it > 6 σ's below the 1981-2010 average.