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Relief From Drought in Southwest U.S. Likely Isn't Coming, According to New Research
https://www.jsg.utexas.edu/news/2025/07/relief-from-drought-in-southwest-u-s-likely-isnt-coming-according-to-new-research/Relief From Drought in Southwest U.S. Likely Isn’t Coming, According to New Research
July 15, 2025
The Southwest United States is currently facing its worst megadrought of the past 1,200 years. According to a recent study from The University of Texas at Austin, the drought could continue at least until the end of the century, if not longer.
Although some scientists anticipate that natural climate variability will bring relief, new research suggests that ongoing warming could be disrupting the natural rhythm of an important climate cycle that brings needed rain to the region.
Much like the seven-year El Niño and La Niña climate patterns, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has been a dependable ocean climate cycle that alternately brings long phases of drought and rains to the Southwest U.S. every 20 to 30 years. However, a study published in Nature Geoscience that analyzed the area’s climate record going back for millennia suggests that this is not necessarily the case.
Researchers found that during the last period of hemispheric warming some 6,000 years ago, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation was forced out of rhythm, leading to a drought that lasted for thousands of years. Now, as the world warms under the effects of climate change, it appears to be happening again. Researchers came to this conclusion when they compared simulations of the ancient warming with climate projections for the future.
…
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01726-zJuly 15, 2025
The Southwest United States is currently facing its worst megadrought of the past 1,200 years. According to a recent study from The University of Texas at Austin, the drought could continue at least until the end of the century, if not longer.
Although some scientists anticipate that natural climate variability will bring relief, new research suggests that ongoing warming could be disrupting the natural rhythm of an important climate cycle that brings needed rain to the region.
Much like the seven-year El Niño and La Niña climate patterns, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has been a dependable ocean climate cycle that alternately brings long phases of drought and rains to the Southwest U.S. every 20 to 30 years. However, a study published in Nature Geoscience that analyzed the area’s climate record going back for millennia suggests that this is not necessarily the case.
Researchers found that during the last period of hemispheric warming some 6,000 years ago, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation was forced out of rhythm, leading to a drought that lasted for thousands of years. Now, as the world warms under the effects of climate change, it appears to be happening again. Researchers came to this conclusion when they compared simulations of the ancient warming with climate projections for the future.
…