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hatrack

(59,587 posts)
Fri Nov 16, 2012, 10:45 AM Nov 2012

Musn't Rush Things! Brazil Urges Delay In Any Binding Climate Talks Until 2013 - SMH

The debate on whether the world needs stronger greenhouse gas cuts to keep the planet from warming by 2C should be deferred until next year, according to Brazil's lead negotiator at the upcoming talks in Doha.

Ambassador Luiz Alberto Figueiredo says delegates at Qatar - the most important climate negotiations of the year - should prioritise an extension of the Kyoto protocol and the rules for a longer-term agreement rather than be distracted by the crucial but contentious issue of emissions reductions.

Environmental groups, however, are calling for greater urgency from Brazil, a country that has won plaudits at previous gatherings for leading the search for common ground between wealthy and developing nations.

With the Kyoto protocol set to expire at the end of the year, Figueiredo said there is an urgent need to ensure the continuation of a process that has been the foundation of international discussions for more than a decade, despite its shrinking support among the initial signatories.

EDIT

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/brazil-calls-for-delay-in-talks-to-cut-emissions-20121116-29fo4.html

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Musn't Rush Things! Brazil Urges Delay In Any Binding Climate Talks Until 2013 - SMH (Original Post) hatrack Nov 2012 OP
Kinda sucks but it could have been worse. n/t AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #1
This message was self-deleted by its author XemaSab Nov 2012 #3
I don't get what you're trying to say here. AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #5
Rio+20 was the last big shot at anything. It's over. joshcryer Nov 2012 #2
Oh, just stop, please. This isn't helping things. AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #4
Could you imagine this guy on the deck of the titanic NoOneMan Nov 2012 #6
LOL......seriously, though, I got a better metaphor. AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #7
That's a really shitty analogy XemaSab Nov 2012 #9
I wouldn't have called the NWS alarmist, though. AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #12
'tis but a scratch! I could plug the hole with my pinky finger! joshcryer Nov 2012 #11
Handwringing? How about facts? joshcryer Nov 2012 #10
Yes, but this is actually the science. AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #13
Oh, OK, so you have anything to say about the OP? joshcryer Nov 2012 #15
We never actually had a shot - not as far back as Kyoto. GliderGuider Nov 2012 #8
True enough. But since then Latin America shifted far to the left. joshcryer Nov 2012 #14
Why should some third world country XemaSab Nov 2012 #16
You do have a good point here, XemaSab. AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #17
As Kevin Anderson says "Climate Change is an Annex 1 problem." GliderGuider Nov 2012 #18
Mexico and the UK are the only two countries with committed emissions goals. joshcryer Nov 2012 #19

Response to AverageJoe90 (Reply #1)

 

AverageJoe90

(10,745 posts)
4. Oh, just stop, please. This isn't helping things.
Fri Nov 16, 2012, 09:07 PM
Nov 2012

FFS, man. I hate to sound like a jerk or anything, but since when did constant handwringing ever prove to be anything other than a burden, to any cause?

If we really want a good chance for change, we need to KEEP GOING. Okay? Even many of our more pessimistic brothers & sisters in arms, as it were, are still out there trying to make a positive difference. If we give up now, then the worst will be far more likely to happen.....it isn't over 'till it's over.

 

NoOneMan

(4,795 posts)
6. Could you imagine this guy on the deck of the titanic
Fri Nov 16, 2012, 10:57 PM
Nov 2012

"Calm down people. You guys need to get off those little rafts"

 

AverageJoe90

(10,745 posts)
7. LOL......seriously, though, I got a better metaphor.
Fri Nov 16, 2012, 11:42 PM
Nov 2012

In all honesty, though, this whole Titanic thing is kind of apples-and-oranges.

Here's a more apt(though not perfect) comparison: In Miami one autumn, people are awaiting the news concerning a Category 4 hurricane off the coast of Hispaniola, as to whether or not it will hit South Florida in the next 48 hours, and if so, how hard. A small group of people are going around carrying signs saying, "The End is Near", "Miami will perish", etc., and are proclaiming doom-and-gloom; 220 mph winds, all of South Florida destroyed, tens of thousands dead, etc., while another significantly larger group of people on the opposite is calling it a bunch of hype and saying there's nothing to worry about, etc.. The National Weather Service, meanwhile, is warning people that while a direct hit to Miami is not likely based on their forecasts, it is still possible, and people should try to prepare for the worst. Most people heed the warnings as usual, although with varying speed and caution, but some, however, don't. Two days later, the hurricane makes its landfall about 25 miles due north of Miami, as a low-end Category 5. Though the damage does unfortunately exceed all of the most optimistic estimates, it's also not quite as severe as the most pessimistic estimates as well. Unfortunately, a somewhat larger than usual number of people blew off preparations assisted by the blowhardiness of the aforementioned pair of groups of cranks; the first meant no harm, but the other group was really just looking to stir up trouble, with the latter group bearing the vast majority of the brunt of responsibility. 450 people are killed by this storm in Florida; had it not been for the scaredy-cats and troublemakers(especially the latter group!), it would have been around 350 or so.

This hypothetical scenario isn't particularly based on any real life event, but serves as a metaphor for what we are faced with in respect to climate change.
The cranks I mentioned? Notice how I always mentioned these two groups in order, the ones who were genuinely deeply frightened by the prospect of the disaster but who went a little too far with the doom-and-gloom(and who unintentionally complicated the situation) coming first, and those who honestly didn't give a shit about the safety and well-being of others, and only that they get their 15 minutes of fame(and who bore the great majority of the responsibility for the exacerbation of the death toll), second.

These people were a stand-in for the most extreme of the climate "doomers&quot McPherson, Light, etc.), and the climate change deniers(Monckton, Christy, Booker, et al.), respectively.

And the NWS, of course, served as a stand in, for people such as Peter Sinclair, David Titley, Katherine Hayhoe, the Skeptical Science guys, and others like them.

XemaSab

(60,212 posts)
9. That's a really shitty analogy
Sat Nov 17, 2012, 01:39 AM
Nov 2012

Here's what the NWS said about Katrina:

URGENT — WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28, 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES
AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!


In many cases, it's the NWS who are the alarmists.

Also, we've seen devastating hurricanes before in our history. We've seen major cities undergo total, utter devastation. We've never seen a climate shift before. All we have to go on are suppositions about what the aftermath of the Toba supervolcano was like. We don't know how people got through it.

If there's a 5% chance that we're looking at the destruction of the biosphere, then we should act as though that's a possible outcome and we shouldn't totally ignore it.

You're up here pushing for a business as usual approach, and that's not going to cut it.
 

AverageJoe90

(10,745 posts)
12. I wouldn't have called the NWS alarmist, though.
Sat Nov 17, 2012, 01:58 AM
Nov 2012

Last edited Sun Nov 18, 2012, 01:54 AM - Edit history (1)

There was a very real possibility that Katrina could have totally wiped out New Orleans instead of partly, and the city's geography certainly complicated things.

But I wouldn't have called the NWS alarmist, because this was indeed a much needed warning, based on actual evidence, mind you.



Also, we've seen devastating hurricanes before in our history. We've seen major cities undergo total, utter devastation. We've never seen a climate shift before. All we have to go on are suppositions about what the aftermath of the Toba supervolcano was like. We don't know how people got through it.



That may be true, I suppose, but it doesn't quite invalidate my point, though.

If there's a 5% chance that we're looking at the destruction of the biosphere, then we should act as though that's a possible outcome and we shouldn't totally ignore it.


Well, this is something that you and I would agree on.

You're up here pushing for a business as usual approach, and that's not going to cut it.


No, I never have. I've always been in favor of alternative technologies and reducing dirty fuel usage as soon as possible. Perhaps my solutions aren't as drastic as those of some others, and that may be true, but it's not exactly business-as-usual, either, though.

joshcryer

(62,276 posts)
10. Handwringing? How about facts?
Sat Nov 17, 2012, 01:55 AM
Nov 2012
Beyond 'dangerous' climate change: emission scenarios for a new world
Only if Annex 1 nations reduce emissions immediately at rates far beyond those typically countenanced and only then if non-Annex 1 emissions peak between 2020 and 2025 before reducing at unprecedented rates, do global emissions peak by 2020. Consequently, the 2010 global peak central to many integrated assessment model scenarios as well as the 2015-2016 date enshrined in the CCC, Stern and ADAM analyses, do not reflect any orthodox feasibility. By contrast, the logic of such studies suggests (extremely) dangerous climate change can only be avoided if economic growth is exchanged, at least temporarily, for a period of planned austerity within Annex 1 nations and a rapid transition away from fossil-fuelled development within non-Annex 1 nations.

The analysis within this paper offers a stark and unremitting assessment of the climate change challenge facing the global community. There is now little to no chance of maintaining the rise in global mean surface temperature at below 2.C, despite repeated high-level statements to the contrary. Moreover, the impacts associated with 2.C have been revised upwards, sufficiently so that 2.C now more appropriately represents the threshold between dangerous and extremely dangerous climate change. Consequently, and with tentative signs of global emissions returning to their earlier levels of growth, 2010 represents a political tipping point. The science of climate change allied with emission pathways for Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations suggests a profound departure in the scale and scope of the mitigation and adaption challenge from that detailed in many other analyses, particularly those directly informing policy.
 

AverageJoe90

(10,745 posts)
13. Yes, but this is actually the science.
Sat Nov 17, 2012, 02:01 AM
Nov 2012

I've been talking about the truly off-the-wall stuff like McPherson's "16*C by 2100!" nonsense and Malcolm Light's (unproven, bullshit) claim that all life on Earth would be extinct the middle of this century.

joshcryer

(62,276 posts)
15. Oh, OK, so you have anything to say about the OP?
Sat Nov 17, 2012, 02:04 AM
Nov 2012

I was talking about the OP, not something that apparently is nagging you despite that no one here is claiming those projections as remotely true.

4C is still massively devastating to the planetary environment.

 

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
8. We never actually had a shot - not as far back as Kyoto.
Sat Nov 17, 2012, 01:28 AM
Nov 2012

At Rio, 20 years ago, the corporations woke up and realized that if they allowed this movement to get any traction they'd all be hosed for profits. So at Kyoto they subverted the agenda just enough to make sure there were aspects of the Accord that would give the corporate-influenced government of the US a reason not to ratify. Since then the same forces have been ensuring that the agreements are toothless and ineffectual.

Rio+20 was their way of telling anyone who was awake that there was no further chance of implementing short-to-medium term carbon cuts.

We've been fucked since the outset.

joshcryer

(62,276 posts)
14. True enough. But since then Latin America shifted far to the left.
Sat Nov 17, 2012, 02:03 AM
Nov 2012

All the despot dictators that we once held up were ousted. You'd think, maybe, just fucking maybe, the leftist movements would want to do something effective about climate change. They chose not to.

XemaSab

(60,212 posts)
16. Why should some third world country
Sat Nov 17, 2012, 02:18 AM
Nov 2012

where there's no manufacturing and 90% of the citizens don't own a car be the space monkey for the planet?

The US spits out 5,425 million tons of CO2 per year. If Mexico (which is one of the more prosperous Latin countries and does have a manufacturing base) cut their emissions by 50%, they would save 222 million tons of CO2 per year, or 4% of what the US spits out every year. It would also create even worse poverty than already exists there, driving millions of people out of work and probably creating a famine right on our southern border.

Meanwhile, we could cut our emissions by 4% by inflating our tires, caulking our windows, and convincing people in LA to give up their lawns.

It's like saying that we can balance the budget by taxing the poor while the rich get to keep their loopholes. It's fundamentally unfair.

 

AverageJoe90

(10,745 posts)
17. You do have a good point here, XemaSab.
Sat Nov 17, 2012, 02:27 AM
Nov 2012

The truth is, whether we may realize this or not, is that many other countries still do look to the great powers for inspiration for many things, including climate change mitigation. If we could make even a little more progress, then I think at least some nations would be glad to follow in our footsteps.

joshcryer

(62,276 posts)
19. Mexico and the UK are the only two countries with committed emissions goals.
Sat Nov 17, 2012, 02:40 AM
Nov 2012

I'm not saying that they should have to do anything. I'm simply saying the politics of Latin America after being the guinea pig for fascist corporate dictatorships should, idealistically, want to basically do the opposite.

The fact that they're on board with us basically means as a corporate oligarchy, we won. We're happy to export our coal to them.

Renewables for the developed world are about long term energy sustainability. It has nothing to do with the environment.

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