'Expect Surprises': Records-Breaking Year Portends Vastly Changing Arctic

[xchrom]

http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2012/12/05-10


Ice concentration on Sept. 16, 2012, compared to previous record low (yellow line) and historic median extent (black line.) (Credit: NOAA/National Snow & Ice Data Center.)

A series of record-setting events in the Arctic in 2012 foreshadow a dramatically different environment to come, one that will be greener and warmer, according to the most recent Arctic Report Card released Wednesday.

"The Arctic is changing in both predictable and unpredictable ways, so we must expect surprises," Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and NOAA administrator, told reporters. "The Arctic is an extremely sensitive part of the world and with the warming scientists have observed, we see the results with less snow and sea ice, greater ice sheet melt and changing vegetation."

Among the records noted in the report from NOAA representing 141 authors from 15 countries is the sea ice extent. September 2012 saw record minimum Arctic sea ice extent, 18% lower than the previous record from 2007. The year also saw the largest sea ice decline between the March maximum and September minimum extents.

Snow cover amounts also hit a record in the year, with a new record low June snow cover extent (SCE) for the Northern Hemisphere marked.

[phantom power]

1. I don't suppose it's the happy kind of surprise with ponies and rainbows?

[nilram]

4. Rainbows! After the torrential rains, as the floodwaters subside.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

2. Even bigger worry is released methane from perma-frozen ground that thaws. Methane worse greenhouse

An even bigger worry is released methane from perma-frozen ground (permafrost) that thaws. Methane is a much worse greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.

Watch out for methyl hydrates in sea and ocean bottoms.

[pscot]

3. Are the jet streams subject to chaotic instability?

I have a feeling the weather is going to be much less predictable in the near future.

[phantom power]

5. in a word, yes

their behavior is predicted to change, and the changes will increase the frequency of extreme weather events:

http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2012/04/slowing-rossby-waves-leading-to-extreme.html