Tighter Forecasting Focus Reveals Serious Potential Problems For Ag. In Mexico, Central America
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According to Meehl, head of climate and global dynamics at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, the latest downscaled studies for agriculture in Mexico and Central America are among the highest-resolution climate change projections anywhere in the world. The same countries are among the most threatened by climate change.
Mexico stands to lose between a quarter and a third of its agricultural production by 2080, according to a study by William Cline of the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Global Development. That is more than any country besides India. "Now we have to focus on mitigation strategies that can make the impact we feel less painful," said Francisco Mayorga just before he left office as Mexico's agriculture minister on December 1.
Central America will see agricultural output shrink between 12 and 24 percent, according to Cline, a loss cushioned by the region's average rainfall of some 6 millimeters per day, compared with Mexico's 2 millimeters per day.
"The fundamental problem is that water needs will go up as the heat rises, but unfortunately these countries will be getting less water," said Cline. As a result, land suitable for coffee growing in parts of Central America is expected to shrivel by up to 80 percent by 2050, one of the micro-forecasts published this year said.
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/19/us-mexico-climate-idUSBRE8BI1D620121219